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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 2h

I think it's always a mistake to underestimate folks ability to snap and go "fuck you"...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 2h

I know this is a petty contestation, but it does help one understand the lack of political nous, too...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 3h

All seems to be post-Brexit/Johnson/Pandemic (we can put the 2021 uptick down to methodology). Can derive hyoptheses from that...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 3h

Isn't Duncan meant to be a small business owner?

Like, do you not understand brand awareness?

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Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 4h

Identity findings in the SSA very much tally with what we saw in the census. Sharply declining British identity, growing Scottish identity.

The SSA also finds that these correlate with constitutional preference...

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 5h

Scottish Social Attitudes report a dramatic dip in British identity in Scotland in 2024

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 4h

It's just positioning from someone who wants that wording to become prevalent because they're on that side. Guy isn't making a good-faith argument.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 4h

My @heraldscotland.bsky.social column tomorrow sets out reasons why, despite the fact that on paper Labour's NHS-focused Holyrood strategy makes sense, it likely won't help them now.

You can add the potential for retorts of "you're making everyone's medication more expensive" to that list.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 4h

We cannot afford, as a society, to start paying more across the board for pharmaceuticals. And we don't need to, given the combined buying power of the NHS across the nations.

This is sacrificing Britons' health on the alter of pleasing Trump.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 4h

Identity findings in the SSA very much tally with what we saw in the census. Sharply declining British identity, growing Scottish identity.

The SSA also finds that these correlate with constitutional preference...

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 5h

Scottish Social Attitudes report a dramatic dip in British identity in Scotland in 2024

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 4h

We cannot afford, as a society, to start paying more across the board for pharmaceuticals. And we don't need to, given the combined buying power of the NHS across the nations.

This is sacrificing Britons' health on the alter of pleasing Trump.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 4h

The NHS routinely denies medications that would provide a dramatically improved quality of life over cost concerns.

One example would be anti-psychotics - those currently prescribed come with crippling side-effects, from tremors and tiredness to dramatic weight gain. The drugs exist to avoid that.

Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 5h

Trump is effectively bullying the UK to pay more for its drugs

www.ft.com/content/dd11...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 5h

But have you considered that that doesn't fit the agenda of skewing the question in a unionist direction?

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Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan

Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 5h

There's an important point from Mark here; at BBS, I ignore "Remain vs Leave" Independence polling because the only people doing it are partisan organisations who like it because it favours their side. They're welcome to do so, but none of the rest of us have to give it any credence.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 5h

Take this claim, from Guy Stenhouse's col. Setting aside the absurd argument and the fact that the Electoral Commission Q testing for 2014 concluded the Q was unbiased and easily understood, you would expect the SSA data to tally with the SiU question if the latter were "the real question".

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Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan

Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 5h

Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?

We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.

Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.

👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/

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Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 5h

Scottish Social Attitudes report a dramatic dip in British identity in Scotland in 2024

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 5h

Take this claim, from Guy Stenhouse's col. Setting aside the absurd argument and the fact that the Electoral Commission Q testing for 2014 concluded the Q was unbiased and easily understood, you would expect the SSA data to tally with the SiU question if the latter were "the real question".

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 5h

One interesting aspect of comparing the way the SSA measures constitutional preferences is how closely it aligns with VI polling using the 2014 question, which some have criticised (as they do, annually), using recently released polling done for Scotland in Union that used a Leave/Remain framing...

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 6h

New report out from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey today, with new data on a wide range of issues, including constitutional preferences:

Independent in EU: 40%
Independent out EU: 8%
Devolution (w/ tax powers): 33%
Devolution (no tax powers): 8%
No Holyrood: 9%

natcen.ac.uk/publications...

Scottish Social Attitudes | 25 years of devolution in Scotland | National Centre for Social Research

This briefing charts some of the key developments in Scottish public opinion since the advent of devolution.

natcen.ac.uk

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 5h

There's always been a left-right split on independence support, but that split has widened further since 2014, having grown significantly during the campaign.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 5h

Interesting stuff in this around trends in identities & preferences.

Since 1999, indy support among those identifying as Scottish exclusively has grown from 44% to 74%; from 26% to 50% among those identifying as more Scottish than British, but is just 14% among those identifying as both equally.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 6h

New report out from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey today, with new data on a wide range of issues, including constitutional preferences:

Independent in EU: 40%
Independent out EU: 8%
Devolution (w/ tax powers): 33%
Devolution (no tax powers): 8%
No Holyrood: 9%

natcen.ac.uk/publications...

Scottish Social Attitudes | 25 years of devolution in Scotland | National Centre for Social Research

This briefing charts some of the key developments in Scottish public opinion since the advent of devolution.

natcen.ac.uk

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Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 6h

New report out from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey today, with new data on a wide range of issues, including constitutional preferences:

Independent in EU: 40%
Independent out EU: 8%
Devolution (w/ tax powers): 33%
Devolution (no tax powers): 8%
No Holyrood: 9%

natcen.ac.uk/publications...

Scottish Social Attitudes | 25 years of devolution in Scotland | National Centre for Social Research

This briefing charts some of the key developments in Scottish public opinion since the advent of devolution.

natcen.ac.uk

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 6h

I've argued elsewhere that this should be our preferred method for tracking constitutional sentiment in the population overall:

Is Scottish independence inevitable? The relationship between birth cohort and secessionism in Scotland.

At the heart of the debate over the relationship between age and support for Scotland seceding from the United Kingdom is a key question: do Scots become less likely to support secession as they age, ...

www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 6h

It's a completely different way of measuring constitutional preferences to typical polling. This isn't asking people how they would vote, and doesn't have any kind of likelihood to vote weighting. It also isn't weighted to anything like past voting intention.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 6h

New report out from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey today, with new data on a wide range of issues, including constitutional preferences:

Independent in EU: 40%
Independent out EU: 8%
Devolution (w/ tax powers): 33%
Devolution (no tax powers): 8%
No Holyrood: 9%

natcen.ac.uk/publications...

Scottish Social Attitudes | 25 years of devolution in Scotland | National Centre for Social Research

This briefing charts some of the key developments in Scottish public opinion since the advent of devolution.

natcen.ac.uk

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

'This is what the Lord Almighty said: "Administer true justice; show mercy and compassion to one another. Do not oppress the widow or the fatherless, the foreigner or the poor. Do not plot evil against each other."'

Do these people not read their own Bible?

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Mike Johnson: "If you're a young, pregnant American citizen women who shows up in an ER and you get treated and they pay the hospital less for treating you than some illegal rabble rouser who came in from some South American country to do us harm, that is wrong."

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

"I'm a lifelong country fan and I've never heard of you or your crap music, Zach Bryan"

The "three fingers" scene from Inglorious Basterds

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

The comments being left on Zach Bryan's YouTube videos by irate MAGA bots are hilarious.

Vlad123456 commenting that they're a proud country fan, and that Bryan's a no-name traitor whose music sucks, like an IRL Grandpa Cleetus who stopped listening to new music when Johnny Cash was at his peak.

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