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Mark Pack

@markpackuk.bsky.social

7.5K followers 820 following 3.8K posts

Lib Dem President and Life Peer. Author, "Polling UnPacked" / http://www.theweekinpolls.co.uk / https://libdemnewswire.substack.com / imprint + privacy http://markpack.org.uk/legal-privacy / he/him

www.theweekinpolls.co.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · Jul 6

A secret about how the House of Lords works: the Chief Whip's ring binder buff.ly/Whmcf0l < I have a new email newsletter

A secret about how the House of Lords works: the Chief Whip's ring binder

Welcome

buff.ly

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Reposted by Mark Pack

LGA Liberal Democrat Group @libdemlocalgov.bsky.social · 36m

The LGA is running two BAME events:
‘Claiming space, shaping change – leadership for a new political era’ masterclass on 18-19 October
‘Developing your political leadership skills’ on 21-22 February.

Email [email protected] for more details.

A platform for growth - first magazine for councillors

This year, we celebrate a remarkable milestone – 21 years of the LGA’s flagship leadership event for black, Asian and ethnic minority (BAME) councillors

www.lgafirst.co.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 10h

Data tables: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 10h

Well, this is fun.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 10h

Cole-Hamilton: Delayed NHS app is another SNP saga

The long-promised NHS and social care app has faced more government delays.

buff.ly

Reposted by Mark Pack

Ed Davey @eddavey.libdems.org.uk · 23h

A stonker of a night for us. Three huge wins, Reform nowhere near us and the Tories down to ten percent in Mel Stride’s own seat.

We are the only party taking Farage on and the only party beating him.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 1d

Kenn Valley (Teignbridge) Council By-Election Result:

🔶 LDM: 50.4% (+11.0)
➡️ RFM: 23.1% (New)
🌳 CON: 9.6% (-19.0)
🙋 Ind: 8.2% (New)
🌍 GRN: 5.5% (-13.9)
🌹 LAB: 2.7% (-9.9)
🙋 Ind: 0.5% (New)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Changes w/ 2023.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 14h

... that lots of time treating symptoms means you end up having no time to treat the cause, though I wonder what your perspective is on the idea that treating the symptoms means you're better informed about what the causes might be and how to tackle them?

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 14h

I think you did pretty well at doing both :)

I think also though we tend to look down on 'treating the symptoms' as if that's not a good thing in itself. E.g. we don't disparage taking an aspirin if you have a headache because it's only 'treating the symptoms'. This is of course the risk...

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 17h

If I understand the methodology correctly, an 18 year old working in a museum shop counts as 'Establishment'. Which seems an unusual definition?

Very striking how different the answers among the "Establishment" are by age, making the age weighting very important.

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 18h

To me, the most significant part of these findings seems to be the huge variation between different panel providers. Which highlights the value in knowing where a poll's panel data has come from, something that otherwise good polling transparency rules in the UK doesn't really tackle?

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 18h

Hang on, don't you write newspaper columns Rob... :)

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 19h

The ending of two party politics is looking rather like two party politics.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 21h

Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

RFM: 47 (+40)
LDM: 32 (+10)
CON: 13 (-15)
LAB: 12 (-30)
GRN: 11 (+3)
Ind: 5 (-4)
Local: 3 (-3)
SNP: 1 (-1)
PLC: 1 (=)

Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 21h

It's a two member ward that split Labour and Reform last time, and hence those vote share changes showing Labour top last time.

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 21h

What's the best column of his that you'd point people to in order to dispel scepticism about him? (I mainly come across his pieces when others are rubbishing them, which I know comes with a lot of selection bias.)

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 22h

You could have fun by changing your name to 'Official Statistics'.

Reposted by Mark Pack

Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 22h

NEW DATA: Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election on 2026 boundaries. Of interest to academics/pollsters/journos

Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026...
Data: github.com/chrishanrett...
Source: github.com/chrishanrett...

Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election – chris hanretty

chris hanretty’s site

chrishanretty.co.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 23h

Lib Dems gain seat in Mel Stride’s constituency, again

Lib Dems gain seat in Mel Stride's constituency, again

The Liberal Democrats make another council by-election gain in Conservative frontbencher Mel Stride's constituency.

buff.ly

Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 1d

That's not unusual, but also not a reason to doubt polls for this reason: www.markpack.org.uk/169051/how-c...

How come I don't know anyone who has been polled?

Variations on 'I've never been polled and I don't know anyone who ever has been' are common amongst people sceptical about opinion polls.

www.markpack.org.uk

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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 1d

It works fairly well in practice, and I find that when I email pollsters about tables which haven't been released in that timescale, they usually respond promptly with the data (even at weekends(. So though not perfect (theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/how-to-imp...), it does seem better setup than US.