Matthew Terrill
@matthewterrill.bsky.social
2.2K followers 470 following 7.3K posts
Poetry, art, music, urbanism, justice. Runner for sport and cyclist for transport. Arts & Culture finance leader. Learning to thrive with ADHD. Finding the sacred all around. (he/him) https://linktr.ee/matthewbterrill
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Reposted by Matthew Terrill
jamellebouie.net
really striking the degree to which not a single person working in the trump administration appears to be interested in serving the american people
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
ifycomedy.com
I think we really should stop using antifa and just fully say anti-fascist and get them saying they are against anti fascism. Using antifa is giving them some distance and I genuinely think some of their base don’t even know that’s what it stands for.
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
paix120.bsky.social
Data has a "liberal bias", because the Trump-led GOP wants to hide the truth and create their own reality.
ajbauer.bsky.social
Finally Trump did something about the rampant "liberal bias" at [checks notes] Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report?
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
goreckis.co
My business needs an annual revenue larger than the GDP of 200 whole countries in order to be solvent.

I am good at business.
matthewterrill.bsky.social
I was already a hard AI-skeptic but this cements my long suspicion that there is no feasible path to anything close to return on invested capital for these data centers. Tech would need 15 to 25 times current AI revenues within the next 2-3 years just to break even. Not financially viable.
"I clearly hit a nerve in the industry, when judging by the number of individuals who reached out to chat," he wrote in an followup blog post. "In total, l've spoken with over two-dozen rather senior people in the datacenter universe, and there was an interesting and overriding theme to our conversations: no one understands how the financial math is supposed to work. They are as baffled as I am, and they do this for a living."
Kupperman's original skepticism was built on a guess that the components in an average Al data center would take ten years to depreciate, requiring costly replacements. That was bad enough: "I don't see how there can ever be any return on investment given the current math," he wrote at the time.
But ten years, he now understands, is way too generous.
" had previously assumed a 10-year depreciation curve, which I now recognize as quite unrealistic based upon the speed with which Al datacenter technology is advancing," Kupperman wrote. "Based on my conversations over the past month, the physical data centers last for three to ten years, at most."
In his previous analysis, Kupperman assumed it would take the tech industry $160 billion of revenue to break even on data center spending in 2025 alone. And that's assuming an incredibly generous 25 percent gross margin - not to mention the fact that the industry's actual Al revenue is closer to $20 billion annually, as the investment manager noted in his previous blog. "In reality, the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even on the capex to be spent this year," Kupperman posited in his updated essay. "No wonder my new contacts in the industry shoulder a heavy burden - heavier than I could ever imagine. They know the truth."
Kupperman called that gulf between tech industry spending and actual revenue in 2025 "astonishing."
However, it doesn't even begin to scratch the surface. For example, how does it all shake out when we account for 2026, when hundreds of new data centers are expected to pop up?
"Adding the two years together, and using the math from my prior post, you'd need approximately $1 trillion in revenue to hit break even, and many trillions more to earn an acceptable return on this spend," he writes.
"If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any better
- it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis," he concludes.
Overall, the pessimists broadly agree: it's no longer a matter of if Al is massively overhyped, but when the whole thing comes crashing down.
More on Al hype: Data Shows That Al Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
sadvil.bsky.social
A great weekend to share Jeff Bridges making a perfect joke
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
unraveledpress.com
Religious leaders here are not mincing words. They have repeatedly used the word "evil."

"Detention and deportation are acts that wound the body of Christ, and deny the dignity of God's people."
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
unraveledpress.com
A group of hundreds of faith in coalition who started at a Maywood church just arrived at the detention center for a eucharistic procession.

They want to offer communion to detainees inside, but won't be able to get past the barricades and fence on Beach Street.
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
kjephd.bsky.social
Unconstitutionally taking money that the law says must be spent on one purpose & using it for something else—when it's to establish personalist control over the FUCKING MILITARY—is about as dangerous a constitutional crisis/failure as you can imagine

Via: www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...
The Office of Management and Budget sent a notification to Congress about their intent to use research and development funds to pay members of the military, two sources with direct knowledge tell NBC News.

A spokesperson for the OMB confirmed to NBC News that it plans to use the research and development funds and that there are two years' worth of funds available within the Department of Defense.
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
lizdye.bsky.social
I was given to understand that the president's son getting a job with a company doing business before the government was an impeachable offense
robertscotthorton.bsky.social
Trump said he deserved a cut for brokering the TikTok deal, and at once there was agreement that his son Baron would have a top executive slot... though he hasn't asked for it, and has no apparent qualifications to hold it. This is how Trump 2.0 works. www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025...
Barron Trump tipped for top TikTok job
US president’s 19-year-old son could be appointed to the app’s board
www.telegraph.co.uk
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
It’s this multiple times a day
They don't even bother to lie badly anymore.
I suppose that's the final humiliation.
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
matthewterrill.bsky.social
A government run by family annihilators
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
figgityfigs.bsky.social
Closing down disease monitoring is like a Bob Loblaw approach to pandemic management.
- WHY SHOULD YOU GO TO JAIL FOR A CRIME SOMEONE ELSE NOTICED?
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
matthewhughes.bsky.social
Assuming OpenAI’s obligations to Oracle are spread equally each month (they aren’t, but for the sake of argument), it would need to pay $5bn a month, each month, for five years.

Assuming subscriptions remain at 70% of revenue, that means making the same amount of money as Netflix, but from ChatGPT.
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
jamnpp.bsky.social
Sometimes there's so much beauty in the world,... I feel like I can't take it. And my heart is just going to cave in.
matthewterrill.bsky.social
Please let this be the end of casting sex pest Jared Leto
matthewterrill.bsky.social
It’s Morbin time! 😂
dailycosmicmarvel.bsky.social
‘TRON: ARES’ has earned $14.3M in its opening day at the domestic box office.

For comparison, ‘MORBIUS’ opened to $17.3M.
matthewterrill.bsky.social
Unless, of course it’s a loss leader for techno fascism & plans to collect rents from govt contracts. And obviously each passing day that looks more and more like the plan.
matthewterrill.bsky.social
I was already a hard AI-skeptic but this cements my long suspicion that there is no feasible path to anything close to return on invested capital for these data centers. Tech would need 15 to 25 times current AI revenues within the next 2-3 years just to break even. Not financially viable.
"I clearly hit a nerve in the industry, when judging by the number of individuals who reached out to chat," he wrote in an followup blog post. "In total, l've spoken with over two-dozen rather senior people in the datacenter universe, and there was an interesting and overriding theme to our conversations: no one understands how the financial math is supposed to work. They are as baffled as I am, and they do this for a living."
Kupperman's original skepticism was built on a guess that the components in an average Al data center would take ten years to depreciate, requiring costly replacements. That was bad enough: "I don't see how there can ever be any return on investment given the current math," he wrote at the time.
But ten years, he now understands, is way too generous.
" had previously assumed a 10-year depreciation curve, which I now recognize as quite unrealistic based upon the speed with which Al datacenter technology is advancing," Kupperman wrote. "Based on my conversations over the past month, the physical data centers last for three to ten years, at most."
In his previous analysis, Kupperman assumed it would take the tech industry $160 billion of revenue to break even on data center spending in 2025 alone. And that's assuming an incredibly generous 25 percent gross margin - not to mention the fact that the industry's actual Al revenue is closer to $20 billion annually, as the investment manager noted in his previous blog. "In reality, the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even on the capex to be spent this year," Kupperman posited in his updated essay. "No wonder my new contacts in the industry shoulder a heavy burden - heavier than I could ever imagine. They know the truth."
Kupperman called that gulf between tech industry spending and actual revenue in 2025 "astonishing."
However, it doesn't even begin to scratch the surface. For example, how does it all shake out when we account for 2026, when hundreds of new data centers are expected to pop up?
"Adding the two years together, and using the math from my prior post, you'd need approximately $1 trillion in revenue to hit break even, and many trillions more to earn an acceptable return on this spend," he writes.
"If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any better
- it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis," he concludes.
Overall, the pessimists broadly agree: it's no longer a matter of if Al is massively overhyped, but when the whole thing comes crashing down.
More on Al hype: Data Shows That Al Use Is Now Declining at Large Companies
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
jamellebouie.net
an incontestable fact of the second trump administration is it is actively trying to sicken and kill as many americans as it can
lenasun.bsky.social
NEW: @CDCgov hit hard by massive firings that several staff describe to me as a “bloodbath.”
Among those RIFd:
—leadership of the center for immunization and respiratory diseases;
—leadership of global health center
—leadership of the measles outbreak response; 1/4
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
chrismurphyct.bsky.social
When Republicans are pre-butting a pro-democracy rally like No Kings and making shit up left and right to scare people, you know they're losing and in panic mode.

Pedal to the floor.
Reposted by Matthew Terrill
burgi.bsky.social
This poem is from a delicious dialogue between Persephone and Jesus in Pádraig Ó Tuama's Kitchen Hymns (@coppercanyonpress.bsky.social, 2024). The part it's in is called "In a Garden by a Gate."
I love this book!
#poetry #bookSky 📚💙
For Such a Time as This

Your mother said your father was
a god, she said. Mine said that too,

and I see what your god does.
Abandons, tests, and traps you.

Asks for more. And more. Then more
than anyone is capable of doing.

That is not divinity.
That is a weak imagination.

I'm beginning to agree, he said,
but I don't believe he'd change.

I'm talking about you, she said.