Michael Clarke
mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social
Michael Clarke
@mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social

Defence and Security Analyst. Former Director General, Royal United Services Institute. Former Professor of Defence Studies, King's College London. Now Visiting Professor at KCL and University of Exeter and holds Fellowships at a number of institutions. .. more

Michael Clarke is a British academic who specialises in defence studies. He was Director of the Royal United Services Institute from 2007 to 2015. Since the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, he has served as Sky News' security and defence analyst. .. more

Political science 78%
Sociology 14%

Sensible support to Ukraine. Medvedev, predictably, said it was risking European war - as if Russia's attack was not being critically propped up by China, North Korea and Iran. Good for Denmark - producing fuel for Ukraine's own FP5 Flamingo missile.
On December 2,Ukraine&Denmark started work on a rocket fuel factory on the Danish territory,marking the first time a Ukrainian weapons manufacturer will operate in a NATO country⤵️

📹:Danish Industry Minister Morten Bødskov, mayor of the Haderslev Municipality Mads Skau,FPRT's Bondarchuk

Reposted by Michael Clarke

On December 2,Ukraine&Denmark started work on a rocket fuel factory on the Danish territory,marking the first time a Ukrainian weapons manufacturer will operate in a NATO country⤵️

📹:Danish Industry Minister Morten Bødskov, mayor of the Haderslev Municipality Mads Skau,FPRT's Bondarchuk

There are also previous examples, like 'extraordinary rendition' and other US counter-terrorist policies, where the UK is worried about complicity in a policy that may subsequently be judged illegal. Sometimes intell cooperation is withheld until 'assurances' have been received. Maybe not this time?
NEW via CNN: “The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal”
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
www.cnn.com

Russian robot fully authentic - it's a drunk. (Others thought of that one before me). Been laughing about it all morning, while China shows off its 'invasion dogs' robot force with an eye on amphibious Taiwan landings - not so funny.
Russian new robot… LOL 🤖😄

Reposted by Michael Clarke

Russian new robot… LOL 🤖😄

There are quite a few reasons why the UK and other 5-Eyes countries are probably not sharing their most valuable intelligence with the US at the moment. This is just another. Of course, they cannot say so openly, but all important intell-sharing is based on trust. And that's very tough just now.
NEW via CNN: “The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal”
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
www.cnn.com
NEW via CNN: “The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal”
Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics
The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...
www.cnn.com

This may not be it, but I sense that Ukr has been preparing for one or more 'spectaculars' if only to help reverse the Putin/US narrative that Ukr is militarily close to defeat. The Russian ground offensive has run out of steam & now Ukr wants to hit hard to show them - & the world - that they can.
❗️🇷🇺Russian monitoring channels write that a number of their regions are under combined attack by cruise missiles "Flamingo", "Storm Shadow/Scalp", "Neptune" and "Peklo" missile drones, as well as Himars missiles, and there is a threat even to the Moscow region.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

❗️🇷🇺Russian monitoring channels write that a number of their regions are under combined attack by cruise missiles "Flamingo", "Storm Shadow/Scalp", "Neptune" and "Peklo" missile drones, as well as Himars missiles, and there is a threat even to the Moscow region.

This is part of a good 2023 Russian joke during the Sweden / Finland accession issue. When God heard that all Russians automatically go to heaven, heaven applied to join NATO. (Brits & Russians do share a certain sense of humour).
More nuclear threats from the Russian propagandists should Ukraine get Tomahawks.

Solovyev has said that "they [the West] will die but we'll go to heaven" at least three times in the past couple of weeks.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

More nuclear threats from the Russian propagandists should Ukraine get Tomahawks.

Solovyev has said that "they [the West] will die but we'll go to heaven" at least three times in the past couple of weeks.

As I said last week - there will be a lot of veto activity before anything is possible on EU membership, so it will be up to bilateral relations with Ukraine and Moldova to help wherever other supportive states can. But it will be difficult.
🇳🇱❗️🇺🇦🇲🇩 The Netherlands is against proposal, which would allow Ukraine and Moldova to open the first chapter of the negotiations on accession to the EU, bypassing the Hungarian veto, — Dutch PM

The Netherlands refuses to change the principle of unanimity for the opening of the negotiating blocs.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

🇳🇱❗️🇺🇦🇲🇩 The Netherlands is against proposal, which would allow Ukraine and Moldova to open the first chapter of the negotiations on accession to the EU, bypassing the Hungarian veto, — Dutch PM

The Netherlands refuses to change the principle of unanimity for the opening of the negotiating blocs.

The idea that everyone in the military must meet 'the highest male standards' echos the approach of Montgomery taking over 8th Army and Slim with 14th Army in 2WW. But that was when the military was a much simpler animal. There is only room for so much Bruce Willis now.
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I can't imagine this speech has gone down well with hundreds of experienced senior officers - patronising & insulting by turns. It stressed all the most obvious military points that they will have conveyed to their novice officers and cadets dozens of times. So ill-judged.
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❗️🇺🇸Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth: We have the strongest, deadliest, and most well-prepared military on the planet.

I can't imagine this speech has gone down well with hundreds of experienced senior officers - patronising & insulting by turns. It stressed all the most obvious military points that they will have conveyed to their novice officers and cadets dozens of times. So ill-judged.
bsky.app/profile/mili...
❗️🇺🇸Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth: We have the strongest, deadliest, and most well-prepared military on the planet.

It will be a long road to EU membership and Budapest and Bratislava will both try to veto any progress on behalf of Putin. But Romania has a natural inerest in helping Moldova develop and a lot can be done bilaterally by many European states.
bsky.app/profile/theg...

Reposted by Michael Clarke

The pro-European party won Moldova’s election but obstacles to join the EU remain
The pro-European party won Moldova’s election but obstacles to join the EU remain
Russia’s campaign to amplify societal distrust continues as membership talks have stalled
www.theguardian.com

Congratulations to the brave Maia Sandu and the PAS in Moldova on their convincing election win, despite a really big Kremlin campaign to get their clients back into government in Chisinau. A small piece of good news in the big picture of liberal democracy under terminal threat during our lifetime.

All over the world, governments have taken to branding everything they don't like as 'terrorist' because most of the legal restraints come off in the pursuit of 'counter-terrorism'. It's the sad, long term consequence of US stupidity after 9/11 in 2001 in creating a 'war on terror'. They all do it.
Illegitimate Speaker of the Parliament Shalva Papuashvili called the daily peaceful protesters a "terrorist group."

Reposted by Michael Clarke

Illegitimate Speaker of the Parliament Shalva Papuashvili called the daily peaceful protesters a "terrorist group."

Most Russian refineries produce a range of oil products, including both gasoline and diesel, so in theory the Russians could run short of diesel, BUT the gasoline domestic market is much greater and more complex so is affected first. And even if diesel were short, the military will still get it.
@mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social
Professor noted you said on Sky news that Ukraine strikes on refinery's won't really effect Russian army as they run on diesel. Is there a way for Ukraine to hit diesel production.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

@mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social
Professor noted you said on Sky news that Ukraine strikes on refinery's won't really effect Russian army as they run on diesel. Is there a way for Ukraine to hit diesel production.

Yes. 30 a month at present, but hoping to move to 200 a month by the end of the year and then many more after that. BUT, they still need more western components, more cash for expansion, and need to disperse the production centres to protect them from Russian attacks.
🦾 Flamingo missile with a range of 3,000 km is already in mass production in Ukraine, — The Economist

‼️ The publication writes that one missile will be produced per day.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

🦾 Flamingo missile with a range of 3,000 km is already in mass production in Ukraine, — The Economist

‼️ The publication writes that one missile will be produced per day.

If only.......
☕️If you’d like to support me, I’d be truly grateful. Every coffee you buy helps us keep going.

You can contribute any amount here: buymeacoffee.com/24HoursUkraine

Thank you for your kindness and generosity!

Reposted by Michael Clarke

☕️If you’d like to support me, I’d be truly grateful. Every coffee you buy helps us keep going.

You can contribute any amount here: buymeacoffee.com/24HoursUkraine

Thank you for your kindness and generosity!

At least one aspect of Russian barbarity - and this is open and shut genocidal policy - seems to be getting through to the US mainstream. Though I doubt it will make any difference to White House thinking.

All discussions about a Ukraine peace deal and western 'reassurance forces' etc are gesture politics ahead of Trump's failure to close a deal. The European intention is to stay close to US while it zig-zags out of the war, because it matters to future fighting who Trump will blame for his failure.

Interesting that this man was a 100% MAGA sceptic about Ukraine a few months ago. But to his credit, he has investigated the reality of the war and had the honesty to change his opinion on it. Whether it influences Trump is, of course, another matter.
❗️Trump's spiritual pastor, Mark Burns, gave a restrained critique of him after his meeting with Putin:

"This is not a time for empty gestures. This is a time for bold leadership. Peace is not achieved by silencing victims or rewarding the aggressor. It is achieved by standing firm on principles."