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Michael Weintraub

@miweintraub83.bsky.social

3K followers 1.3K following 140 posts

Associate Professor at Universidad de los Andes. Director of the Center for the Study of Security and Drugs (CESED). I write about how to reduce crime and violence in Latin America. I like to randomize things. www.miweintraub.com .. more

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Nov 27

1/🧵 Excited to share findings from our paper, "Loss Framing and Risk-Taking in Territorial Disputes," co-authored w/ @andizhou.bsky.social & @heingoemans.bsky.social, accepted at Journal of Politics.

It explores how framing affects public support for risky escalation in territorial conflicts.

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub, Björn Vollan

Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · Dec 8

1/ This very important paper by Tim Conley and Morgan Kelly is now forthcoming.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The standard errors of persistence

Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub

southpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · Feb 10

USAID’s inspector general—presumably operating from a remote base in the mountains—has just released a report on the staggering effect of the Trump Administration’s assault on the agency. oig.usaid.gov/sites/defaul...

oig.usaid.gov

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Jul 17

Thanks for spending time with us in Bogotá!

Reposted by Michael Weintraub

Chris @christoesnaider.bsky.social · Jul 14

Dream Team: Profs Carolina Pinzón, María Alejandra Vélez, @miweintraub83.bsky.social - thank you very much for receiving me @ceseduniandes.bsky.social in June/July 2025! The perfect place to investigate the current drug politics in Colombia and on a global scale. #cocaine #sharedresponsibility

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub, Colombia

Comparative Politics @comppol.bsky.social · Apr 15

New article on Fast Track by @miweintraub83.bsky.social, @abbeyst.bsky.social, and Sebastián Pantoja-Barrios, “The Bureaucracy of Reparations and Political Engagement,” www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny...

The Bureaucracy of Reparations and Political Engagement: Ingenta Connect Fast Track Article

www.ingentaconnect.com

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Apr 9

Gracias, querido!

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Apr 9

Gracias mil, Ben :)

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Apr 9

Hace unas semanas me volví colombiano. Escribí en @lasillavacia.bsky.social sobre lo que ha significado para mí.

"Colombiano, por fin" 🇨🇴

www.lasillavacia.com/red-de-exper...

Colombiano, por fin

Adquirir la ciudadanía colombiana como extranjero: un acto de amor y compromiso con un país de contrastes, desigualdades y esperanza.

www.lasillavacia.com

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub

Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · Apr 4

US trade war is not a global trade war. Its US self-isolation. Europe/China/Japan/India/Brazil should meet immediately and announce plans to resist global restrictions with each other. Otherwise, US tariffs could cause trade diversion spiral roiling global economy.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/w...

What Will Trump’s Tariffs Do to EU-China Trade Relations?

The European Union is deepening other trade partnerships as U.S. relations sour. But with China, the relationship could get closer — or more combative.

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Ruth Dassonneville, Michael Weintraub, Todd Landman , and 1 more Ruth Dassonneville, Michael Weintraub, Todd Landman, Christian Rauh

Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · Apr 4

🚨 working paper alert🚨

@carotorreblanca.bsky.social, Will Dinneen, and I have published an updated draft of "The Evolving Landscape of Political Science: Two Decades of Scholarship in a Growing Discipline." We hope you will find it interesting.

osf.io/preprints/os...

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Apr 2

Escribí en @elpaisamerica.bsky.social @elpaisamericaco.bsky.social sobre la tendencia del Presidente Gustavo Petro a llamar "nazi" a sus detractores.

Reduce a eslogan una palabra cargada de un peso histórico que exige cordura.

elpais.com/america-colo...

Reposted by Michael Weintraub

Dani Gilbert @danigilbert.bsky.social · Mar 14

🚨 Calling all alumni of Bridging the Gap programming…

Check your email! We’ve just sent you a survey, and we’d love your input.

Let @bridgingthegap.bsky.social know if you didn’t receive it, and feel free to ask @miweintraub83.bsky.social & me any questions.

Thanks so much in advance!!

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Mar 5

I am so sorry for your loss.

Reposted by Michael Weintraub

Elizabeth Dickinson @dickinsonbeth.bsky.social · Mar 5

From the moment I met Edgar Tumiña, he was always surrounded by children.

Tumi dedicated his life to rescuing kids who were recruited into armed groups, and preventing more from joining.

I have been struggling to find words to write about his assassination on Saturday. Short 🧵

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub

Andi Zhou @andizhou.bsky.social · Feb 24

A small ray of light: my paper with @heingoemans.bsky.social and @miweintraub83.bsky.social, “Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes,” is “just accepted” at @thejop.bsky.social! See what prospect theory can (and can’t) explain about territorial disputes: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

www.journals.uchicago.edu

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 21

“Lo obvio y lo correcto.” Mi columna en @ElPaisAmericaCo: a pesar de la violencia en el Catatumbo, volver a la erradicación forzosa de la hoja de coca sería un error. Mejor que el Estado ejerza su función reguladora del mercado.

elpais.com/america-colo...

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 20

Mañana hablaremos con más de diez Secretarios de Seguridad y de Gobierno en Colombia, para discutir los retos que enfrentan en sus labores. Próximamente sacaremos un documento de síntesis resumiendo las conclusiones principales.

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 20

It has been three years since my mom died. While I miss her terribly, each year it’s gotten progressively easier. If any one of you reading this is grieving, I hope you’ll soon find respite from the pain.

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 19

Thanks so much, Mara 👏👏👏

Reposted by Michael Weintraub

American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · Feb 19

Just published on APSR First View: "Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia" by Erica DeBruin, Gabriella Levy, Livia Schubiger and Michael Weintraub. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub

John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · Feb 15

"More than half of the 100 congressional districts with the largest proportion of federal workers are held by the GOP, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis." (@wsj.com chart below shows congressional districts in the South.) www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Chart showing the estimated number of federal workers in congressional districts in the South, based on an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub, John H. Knox

Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · Feb 13

The Trump administration has directed agency heads to fire most trial period and probationary staff within two days, taking aim at many of the roughly 200,000 people hired by the federal government within the last two years
www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...

Trump administration directs agency heads to fire most probationary staff

Terminations should happen within two days, according to four people familiar with internal conversations.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Reposted by Michael Weintraub

Nuffield College Library @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social · Feb 13

Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Paper in @apsrjournal.bsky.social by @edebruin.bsky.social, @gabriellalevy2.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow Livia I. Schubiger ‪and @miweintraub83.bsky.social

Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core

Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia

doi.org

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 12

📢 ¡Agéndese para la transmisión del seminario (en español) del
@ceseduniandes.bsky.social!

🗓️Este lunes 17 de febrero, a las 12:30 pm.

Inscríbase aquí: shorturl.at/zoalR

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Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 11

A tremendously important report. Bravo.

southpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · Feb 10

oig.usaid.gov

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 11

Thanks to the editors and reviewers for their helpful feedback. We are also grateful to National Science Foundation for their generous support of this project.

We look forward to your comments!

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core

Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia

www.cambridge.org

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 11

4️⃣ Even in contexts characterized by contestation, political and criminal armed groups have meaningful incentives to provide services and to incorporate the views of local residents into their governance practices.

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 11

3️⃣ Governments & armed groups may build legitimacy differently. While state-led economic aid often struggles to boost support, non-state armed groups can gain legitimacy by providing services, resolving disputes, and engaging communities.

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 11

2️⃣ Armed groups receive substantial dividends from offering dispute resolution, roads, and medicine. That *any* of these goods or services reduces civilians’ negative perceptions of armed groups suggests that the bar to “outcompete” rivals might be relatively low.

Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · Feb 11

What conclusions can we draw?
1️⃣ While violence is most often studied in contested areas, our findings suggest that governance choices are important for how civilians judge groups in these contexts.

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