Steven Durlauf
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durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf
@durlauf.bsky.social
3K followers 790 following 260 posts

Professor, Harris School of Public Policy, Director, Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility, University of Chicago

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Steven Neil Durlauf is an American economist and social scientist. He is currently Frank P. Hixon Distinguished Service Professor and the inaugural Director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the Harris School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago. Durlauf was previously the William F. Vilas Research Professor and Kenneth J. Arrow Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. As of 2021, is also a Part Time Professor at the New Economic School. .. more

Economics 66%
Sociology 10%
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Reposted by Aaron Sojourner

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 12h
An extremely valuable synthesis of evidence on the effects of Head Start by @chloergibbs.bsky.social. Recommended!
nber.org NBER @nber.org · 2d
Several decades of Head Start early childhood care and education research provide insight into variation in program effectiveness, over time, across communities, and by child and family characteristics, from @chloergibbs.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34812

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 12h
3/ As such, the authors move beyond debates about the "cause" of the French Revolution to understanding the interplay of proximate and deeper factors. A remarkable achievement.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 12h
2/ The paper is a stunning integration of data ranging from spatial tax differences to analysis of the speeches of deputies in the National Assembly. The paper further explores the interplay of economic factors (tax burden) with measures reflecting differences in diffusion of Enlightenment ideas.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 12h
1/ Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau, and Marco Tabellini have written a fascinating paper on the forces influencing the dynamics of the French Revolution, ranging from The Great Fear to the decision to execute Louis XVI.
nber.org NBER @nber.org · 2d
Spatially unequal taxation fueled the French Revolution, amplifying popular revolts and pushing legislators in high-tax areas to oppose the ancien régime, from Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau, and Marco Tabellini www.nber.org/papers/w34816

Reposted by Steven N. Durlauf, Tomasz Mickiewicz

nber.org
NBER @nber.org · 2d
Spatially unequal taxation fueled the French Revolution, amplifying popular revolts and pushing legislators in high-tax areas to oppose the ancien régime, from Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau, and Marco Tabellini www.nber.org/papers/w34816

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 2d
3/ Weiqi Wang is a predoc at the Center, developing great work on college admissions in China in addition to her work on intergenerational mobility. Every Economics PhD program in the world should be competing to attract her when she applies.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 2d
2/ Kristina Butaeva is a wonderful postdoc at the UChicago Stone Center, with papers on inequality and mobility that range from the US to Russia to China. She makes any social science department or research center deeper and more interesting.

Reposted by Patrick Präg

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 2d
1/ Delighted that this paper with my coauthors extraordinaire, @gtwodtke.bsky.social, Weiqi Wang, and Kristina Butaeva has been released. I want to highlight two of my coauthors. (Geoff Wodtke is a star sociologist and needs no introduction!)
nber.org NBER @nber.org · 5d
New Markov chain methods reveal how, for the US, the last half century is associated with decreased mobility for the upper and lower classes, and greater mobility for the middle, from Geoffrey Wodtke, Weiqi Wang, Kristina Butaeva, and @durlauf.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34800

Reposted by Steven N. Durlauf, Aaron Sojourner

nber.org
NBER @nber.org · 2d
Several decades of Head Start early childhood care and education research provide insight into variation in program effectiveness, over time, across communities, and by child and family characteristics, from @chloergibbs.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34812

Reposted by Kris Inwood

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 4d
I am delighted that this great conversation with Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan has posted. Their extraordinary work on intergenerational mobility and immigrants speaks to essential dimensions of the extent of equality of opportunity and of the process of assimilation.
ucstonecenter.bsky.social UChicago | Stone Center on Wealth Inequality & Mobility @ucstonecenter.bsky.social · 5d
Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan are using economic history to understand immigration. On The Inequality Podcast, they examine patterns of upward mobility and preview new research on the tone of modern political speeches. Listen to their conversation with @durlauf.bsky.social → bit.ly/4txjJsL

Reposted by Steven N. Durlauf, Miles Corak

nber.org
NBER @nber.org · 5d
New Markov chain methods reveal how, for the US, the last half century is associated with decreased mobility for the upper and lower classes, and greater mobility for the middle, from Geoffrey Wodtke, Weiqi Wang, Kristina Butaeva, and @durlauf.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34800

Reposted by Steven N. Durlauf

ucstonecenter.bsky.social
UChicago | Stone Center on Wealth Inequality & Mobility @ucstonecenter.bsky.social · 5d
Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan are using economic history to understand immigration. On The Inequality Podcast, they examine patterns of upward mobility and preview new research on the tone of modern political speeches. Listen to their conversation with @durlauf.bsky.social → bit.ly/4txjJsL

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 8d
7/As for suggestions that this is virtual signalling, an example of cancel culture, my answer is simple. Virtuous conduct matters. Faculty/administrators help define the norms of their institutions. Attitudes and characters affect manifest in their decisions and interactions. Institutions must act.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 8d
6/Botstein's actions trivialized the sexual exploitation of women, and is unacceptable, period. Fundraising needs are a risible excuse.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 8d
5/As for Leon Botstein, he should resign or be removed. It is unacceptable for him to have continued a relationship with Epstein after his first conviction, assuming the best case scenario that Botstein was ignorant of Epstein's misdeeds prior to then.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 8d
4/Consequences do not necessarily require termination. My own view is that University honors, such as named chairs, directorships of research labs/centers should not be held by those engages in post 2008 relationships with Epstein.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 8d
3/Obviously, mention in the files does not mean consequences are warranted per se and schools should be clear on this. Individuals holding a meeting to seek money before Epstein's first conviction are completely different from Lawrence Summers, David Gelertner, etc.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 8d
2/It is essential that faculty are not only represented, but have the authority to determine consequences for misconduct. Any such body must be completely transparent and explain how consequences were determined to be appropriate. And yes, at least half of the decisionmakers must be women.

Reposted by Kevin O’Rourke, Sascha O. Becker, Martha Bailey , and 2 more

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 8d
1/Universities need to systematically address the findings in the Epstein files. In my opinion, every university in which current or past faculty, administrators, trustees appear in the files, should establish formal bodies to review and assess.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/u...
A $50,000 Watch and Friendly Notes: One College Leader’s Ties to Epstein
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Evan Roberts

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 10d
Tweet of the evening.
sgehlbach.bsky.social Scott Gehlbach @sgehlbach.bsky.social · 11d
Your regular reminder that Lemma 1 in Fudenberg and Levine just says that there is a finite number of times you can be surprised, not that that number need be anything close to “small.”
Trump wanted Dulles Airport and Penn Station named after him as condition of releasing rail tunnel funds
Funding for the Gateway Project has been held up since October.
www.politico.com

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
And of course Clinton followed George H. W. Bush in failing to provide a Marshall Plan for Russia. Might Russia's political evolution taken a different path? To assign probabilities to this meaningless, but the effort should have been made.

Madness.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
The moment to try arrived in 1991. Frankly, I largely blame Bill Clinton. The United States, during his presidency, was so comparatively powerful that it could have spearheaded warhead reductions that were an order of magnitude greater than in fact occurred.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
As important as the arms control treaties were, they did not go far enough. George Kennan, the doyen of Cold War thinkers, early on recognized that abolition was the appropriate long run American goal as early as 1982 in

The Nuclear Delusion

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
The lesson of Jervis, IMO is that arms control should focus on strategic stability. Creating a Golden Dome would do the opposite by exacerbating risks by making second strike capabilities uncertain, as do tactical nuclear weapons, lowering nuclear thresholds and can create cycles of escalation.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
The general point is that there no reason to have confidence that a new nuclear arms race will meet the conditions under to have confidence in a stable deterrence regime emerging.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
However, such a claim cannot address presupposes types of rationality and cannot address accidents, the presence of ambiguity rather than uncertainty in crises, etc.

Richard Ned Lebow, Nuclear Crisis Management: A Dangerous Illusion

is very persuasive on the limits to rationality.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
One might argue, of course that mutual assured destruction is stabilizing. Robert Jervis is, among international relations writers, perhaps the most persuasive (I have read) on this possibility in his two great books

The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy

The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
Further, repeated risks of accidental nuclear war that occurred in the course of the Cold War are documented in

Bruce Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War

Scott Sagan, The Limits to Safety

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
I regard Kennedy and Khrushchev as criminally irresponsible in their conduct during the crisis, even if they stepped back from the brink, but that is a separate matter.

durlauf.bsky.social
Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · 11d
Misinformation, imperfections in command and control structures, the capacity of escalation to run out of control due to ambiguity aversion/worst case scenario thinking, give the lie to any interpretation of the resolution of the crisis as a triumph of rational calculation by the various actors.