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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 7h

To summarize. If Trump wanted to send Ukraine Tomahawks, he could right now. If Trump wanted to sanction Russia, he could right now. If Trump
wanted to seriously bolster Ukrainian air defense against Russia drones/missiles, he could right now. But he’s not, so he doesn’t want to.

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

Beingsass @beingsass.bsky.social · 9h

"Trump was not pivoting to Ukraine, as many were saying, he was actually feeling heartbroken at the one person from whom he covets love and respect—Vladimir Putin."

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 14h

Well, guess what? Yesterday Putin batted his eyelashes at Trump (and Melania) and the first couple were grateful for the love and attention. People need to accept the reality that Trump will always crave Putin's affections and cares not a whit for Ukraine. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Putin Flutters His Eyelashes and Trump Swoons (Melania Too)

A Catechism To Understand The Reality Of Trump, Russia and Ukraine

open.substack.com

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 9h

The only people nuttier than those who claim to support Trump and Ukraine are those who are adamant that Trump and Maduro are great opposites. Trump is simply trying to be an American Maduro, power with no belief and, of course, a commitment to personal enrichment.

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 @pravda.ua · 10h

🔥 Ukrainian long-range drones strike oil refinery in Russia's Bashkortostan

Ukrainian long-range drones strike oil refinery in Russia's Bashkortostan – source

www.pravda.com.ua

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

John Sipher @johnsipher.bsky.social · 23h

Now do this with Putin!

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 14h

This is the reality--and I've written a catechism to make the reality clear.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 14h

Well, guess what? Yesterday Putin batted his eyelashes at Trump (and Melania) and the first couple were grateful for the love and attention. People need to accept the reality that Trump will always crave Putin's affections and cares not a whit for Ukraine. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Putin Flutters His Eyelashes and Trump Swoons (Melania Too)

A Catechism To Understand The Reality Of Trump, Russia and Ukraine

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 1d

It is also delusional thinking.
You think flattery is going to keep that man on your side in the long run?

Good luck.

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 1d

There is perverse thinking, and a step below that is thinking that a president that is illegally sending US military units into US cities should be awarded the Nobel Peace prize.

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 1d

But people are honestly saying Trump will give Ukraine tomahawk missiles to attack Russia…sure he will.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 1d

There is perverse thinking, and a step below that is thinking that a president that is illegally sending US military units into US cities should be awarded the Nobel Peace prize.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 1d

But people are honestly saying Trump will give Ukraine tomahawk missiles to attack Russia…sure he will.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 1d

Great new Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social just appeared (all free). This week she discusses the challenges in implementing a Deterrence by Punishment policy towards Russia--though that of course does not mean it should not be tried. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Easier Said Than Done: Hybrid Deterrence By Punishment

This week, Minna Ålander turns to the question of how to move from defensive reactions to Russian hybrid warfare to an effective deterrent. (Spoiler: not easy)

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

flaneuse1.bsky.social @flaneuse1.bsky.social · 1d

So well worth reading. Highly recommended.

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

Just sent out this free post. Something notable has happened in the last few months (particularly since the Putin-Trump love fest in Alaska). GOP public opinion in the USA, which Trump has almost singlehandedly made Ukraine-skeptical earlier… open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Something Interesting Is Happening With GOP Public Opinion

Hi All,

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

Just sent out this free post. Something notable has happened in the last few months (particularly since the Putin-Trump love fest in Alaska). GOP public opinion in the USA, which Trump has almost singlehandedly made Ukraine-skeptical earlier… open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Something Interesting Is Happening With GOP Public Opinion

Hi All,

open.substack.com

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

You’re not alone

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

has moved away from Putin and towards Ukraine. It’s the one issue that Trump has lost control over GOP thinking:

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

Just sent out this free post. Something notable has happened in the last few months (particularly since the Putin-Trump love fest in Alaska). GOP public opinion in the USA, which Trump has almost singlehandedly made Ukraine-skeptical earlier… open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Something Interesting Is Happening With GOP Public Opinion

Hi All,

open.substack.com

13 73 270

Reposted by Phillips OBrien

Benjamin Husstad-Nedberg @factforce.bsky.social · 2d

This👇

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 3d

The most frustrating thing about this war is that the US could step in forcefully now with harsh sanctions against Russia and a large military package for Ukraine with ranged weapons as the centrepiece, and the war would end soon with a Russian defeat.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 3d

All it requires is the determination to do the right thing. The Russian military is beatable and the Russian economy is weakening

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 3d

The most frustrating thing about this war is that the US could step in forcefully now with harsh sanctions against Russia and a large military package for Ukraine with ranged weapons as the centrepiece, and the war would end soon with a Russian defeat.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 3d

Always the best way to celebrate getting $20 billion from the Trump administration to screw US soybean farmers.

Michael @therightarticle.bsky.social · 4d

Argentina's Milei launches new book with rock concert amid political turmoil

He wrecks the country. It's what the far right do.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=yY8s...

Argentina's Milei launches new book with rock concert amid political turmoil

YouTube video by Al Jazeera English

www.youtube.com

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

ItWillGetWorse @blackkettle.bsky.social · 4d

From OBrien's post:

"One thing I have learned about myself over the last three and a half years of writing pieces of analysis is that my greatest errors almost always emerge from optimism."

Uff. I'd have to say the same.

Short and well worth a read. Don't ignore the embedded links.

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 4d

Just sent out this post. Three and a half years after Bucha, after mass child abductions started, after nightly attacks on civilians, the political strength of parties sympathetic to Russia (which is doing these things) is growing not declining. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Does Europe Really Want to Save Itself?

We will know Sooner Than Many Understand.

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Phillips OBrien

🇩🇰🇺🇦🇬🇪Tordenskjold🔔 @tordenskjoldcph.bsky.social · 4d

Europeans voting for extremes must understand this. They’ll start with ones you might not like: muslims, homosexuals etc.

But as Amen in the church even light destillations of fascism will continue with journalism, courts and eventually physically threaten any kind of opposition. Even you.

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 4d

Just sent out this post. Three and a half years after Bucha, after mass child abductions started, after nightly attacks on civilians, the political strength of parties sympathetic to Russia (which is doing these things) is growing not declining. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Does Europe Really Want to Save Itself?

We will know Sooner Than Many Understand.

open.substack.com

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 4d

They lead the polls in Germany, France and the UK.

The question therefore needs to be asked. Does Europe Really Want To Save Itself?

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 4d

Just sent out this post. Three and a half years after Bucha, after mass child abductions started, after nightly attacks on civilians, the political strength of parties sympathetic to Russia (which is doing these things) is growing not declining. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Does Europe Really Want to Save Itself?

We will know Sooner Than Many Understand.

open.substack.com

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