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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 4h

Definitive movement NNE now

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 4h

Somewhat surprised not to see 155kt on the intermediate advisory. But I guess it's trivial really.

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Reposted by Sam Lillo

Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 7h

There's the tie for the record.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 7h

Updated track map. Starting to drift bit northward - part steering, part cyclonic wobble

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 7h

8.6

Because why not.

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Steve Bowen @stevebowen.bsky.social · 8h

A 2017 paper reassessed the history of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) for global storms since 1979. As of 10:30pm ET on October 27, #Melissa is now *unofficially* only behind 2015's Hurricane Patricia (Eastern Pacific) for highest ADT in the past 46 years.

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 7h

Always a reminder to me that even with all the wild seasons and storms in recent years, 2005 is really still in another league.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 8h

This is actually just plain unheard of in the Atlantic

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 8h

Looks like it's coming around the other side of the cyclonic wobble now

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 9h

CI# up to 8.2 = 176kt / 882mb (satellite estimates put Melissa at Wilma levels)

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 9h

Raw back up to 8.4. Final up to 8.0 = 170kt satellite estimate.

Pretty surreal that we're just repeating the last 24 hours, as Melissa sits nearly stationary, contemplating the turn north.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 9h

Tracking Melissa.

Extreme category 5 hurricane churning in place.

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Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social · 10h

😬

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Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 11h

Here is a 54h WV loop of #Melissa as it underwent rapid intensification from a 60 kt TS ➡️ 150 kt cat 5 #Hurricane.

Pay attention to how "warm" eye becomes at the end of the loop which ends at 18 UTC 27 Oct.

Color scale ends at -5C & eye temp on the last few frames was warmer than that 🤯

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 10h

One difference - satellite and recent recon passes show the eye has cooled a bit too.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 11h

Melissa looking pretty much the same as last night. Cloud tops cooling steadily again, raw Dvorak back up to 8.2!!

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 13h

Waving Melissa west.

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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 14h

A lightning-packed eye spins ferociously at the center of Hurricane Melissa.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 14h

And now watching every bit more west of due-north Melissa is tracking. Every wobble west is good.

Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 1d

I feel like if you're in Kingston, you're watching every wobble southwestward with relief.

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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 17h

The monster eye at the center of a still strengthening Hurricane Melissa.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 16h

Melissa is making the slow turn northward today, and is about to track over the warmest waters yet

Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 2d

The WSW motion is important for two reasons.

1) That gives more time for #Melissa to remain over the very warm waters of the Central Caribbean. Yes the hurricane is moving very slowly, but it also has a deep reservoir of oceanic heat content to give it more time than a regular 1-3 kt moving storm.

Sea-Surface Temperature analysis over the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Melissa is over 30-31C SSTs, which are about 1-2C above average for this time of the year.

Oceanic Heat Content for the Caribbean Sea. Melissa is over some of the highest OHC across the Atlantic Basin.

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Reposted by Sam Lillo

Jeremy DeHart @jeremydehartwx.bsky.social · 18h

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 19h

That's a good point, especially with recon data struggling to support the early cat 4 intensities, maybe that comes down and this actually does qualify as RI in post.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 19h

Rapid intensification gets a lot of attention and is typically part of the last push to category 5.

This wasn't the case for Melissa however. The 24 hours leading up to becoming a cat 5 was one of the most gradual intensifications for any Atlantic cat 5.

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K Griffin @kgriffin.dev · 21h

I've seen a lot of dropsondes over my years, and a peak wind of 210kt - even at the top of/just beyond the boundary layer - is wild to see. Might be up there in the ranks of all-time strongest dropsonde-measured gusts as well.

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