Author | Lightnews

Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 2h

Waving Melissa west.

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Reposted by Sam Lillo

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 3h

A lightning-packed eye spins ferociously at the center of Hurricane Melissa.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 3h

And now watching every bit more west of due-north Melissa is tracking. Every wobble west is good.

Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 21h

I feel like if you're in Kingston, you're watching every wobble southwestward with relief.

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Reposted by Sam Lillo

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 6h

The monster eye at the center of a still strengthening Hurricane Melissa.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 5h

Melissa is making the slow turn northward today, and is about to track over the warmest waters yet

Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 1d

The WSW motion is important for two reasons.

1) That gives more time for #Melissa to remain over the very warm waters of the Central Caribbean. Yes the hurricane is moving very slowly, but it also has a deep reservoir of oceanic heat content to give it more time than a regular 1-3 kt moving storm.

Sea-Surface Temperature analysis over the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Melissa is over 30-31C SSTs, which are about 1-2C above average for this time of the year.

Oceanic Heat Content for the Caribbean Sea. Melissa is over some of the highest OHC across the Atlantic Basin.

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Reposted by Sam Lillo

Jeremy DeHart @jeremydehartwx.bsky.social · 7h

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 8h

That's a good point, especially with recon data struggling to support the early cat 4 intensities, maybe that comes down and this actually does qualify as RI in post.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 8h

Rapid intensification gets a lot of attention and is typically part of the last push to category 5.

This wasn't the case for Melissa however. The 24 hours leading up to becoming a cat 5 was one of the most gradual intensifications for any Atlantic cat 5.

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K Griffin @kgriffin.dev · 9h

I've seen a lot of dropsondes over my years, and a peak wind of 210kt - even at the top of/just beyond the boundary layer - is wild to see. Might be up there in the ranks of all-time strongest dropsonde-measured gusts as well.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 9h

3 category 5 hurricanes out of 13 storms. 😳

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 17h

Recon: maybe a 5?
Far from the definitiveness of the satellite estimates

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 17h

the trochoidal wobbles tonight are something else

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 17h

Don't see a satellite intensity estimate of 170kt in the Atlantic everyday. Or well, ever.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 19h

"Nope"

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 19h

8.3!!
And an *average* cloud temp of -80C!
This is an astronomical satellite intensity estimate.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 19h

8.2!

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Reposted by Sam Lillo

Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 20h

It appears the earlier secondary eyewall merged with the primary eyewall quickly, similar what happened in Hurricane Milton. That merger may have paused intensification, but Melissa appears to be making its move to Cat. 5 tonight. Certainly has that look. Next set of recon. missions will be telling.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 20h

We got an 8! Wow

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 20h

Definitely one of the more impressive non-cat-5 satellite presentations.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 21h

I feel like if you're in Kingston, you're watching every wobble southwestward with relief.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 1d

Of note, now evidence of outer wind maxima.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 1d

Don't know how Melissa can look much better on satellite, but recon so far still finding it shy of cat 5.

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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 1d

I think one of the hardest visuals to stomach will be when Melissa starts making the turn northward in its slow march toward Jamaica

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 1d

Radar out of Jamaica suggests an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting in Hurricane Melissa.

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Reposted by Sam Lillo

Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 1d

Seeing the eye steadily warm/dry out from where it was 4 hours ago (1430Z) to where it is now (1830Z) is another clear sign of #Melissa strengthening. Each HH pass through the eye is showing a warming/drier mid-level layer. And a lower pressure reading each time, of course.

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