Aaron Cosbey
@aaroncosbey.bsky.social
950 followers 550 following 180 posts
climate and energy policy, trade and investment policy, and all the stuff in between if i can't dance, i don't want to be part of your revolution
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aaroncosbey.bsky.social
Nameless German firms to Hodgson: We'd be "interested" in Canadian LNG.

I'm sure. Every importer wants a surplus of exporters.

That doesn't mean they'd commit to any long-term deals. And it doesn't mean that they've thought through the business case from a Canadian perspective.

bit.ly/3Kvro96
Natural resources minister presses case for Canadian LNG exports to Europe | CBC News
At a news conference wrapping up a trip to Berlin, Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson said German companies have told him they are interested in Canadian liquefied natural gas, and that his govern...
bit.ly
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
At this point you expect more outrageous stuff every day.

But this is a whole new level of outrageous.
briantylercohen.bsky.social
The Trump administration is now seeking to replace PBS with “Prager University,” a far-right propaganda organization that isn’t actually a university.

One of their “kids videos” has Christopher Columbus telling them that slavery was “no big deal” and “better than being killed.”
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
I used to believe that the increasing frequency of climate disasters would create a constituency for climate policy ambition.

Not if so many people believe that climate-related disasters are globalist plots.
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
Hey fellow Canadians. Cost of living more important to you than addressing climate change?

Here's a 10-year graph of my home insurance costs, following on recent years of monstrously costly floods, wildfires, storms.

Just 1 of so many ways in which we're paying for *not* addressing climate change.
my rising home insurance cost in Canada, in large part due to climate-change-fueled floods, wildfires, storms in recent years
Reposted by Aaron Cosbey
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
1 - We’ll get busy improving your voters’ vacations, right after we deal with the misery of 10s of thousands of CAD wildfire evacuees.

2 - We’ll improve forest management (already doing it), and you stop pretending arson is the issue, and instead stop emitting so much goddamned greenhouse gas.
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
Your years of waiting and yearning are over! 😁

Deep-detailed guidance on best practice in border carbon adjustment -- the product of dialogues that brought together over 20 global experts from a wide range of backgrounds.
iisd.org
📢 New report!

If done right, Border Carbon Adjustments #BCAs, like the EU & UK #CBAMs, can support just transitions, but getting their design right is key. ✅

After2️⃣ years of expert insight, @economies.iisd.org presents this landmark set of recommendations.

🔗: www.iisd.org/publications...
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
The key is that any subsidy that encourages exports is a prohibited subsidy, and I guess you can see why they would agree to that. Free allocation, granted to all production, does not favour or encourage exports.
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
The first man through a minefield makes it more feasible for those that follow, even if he blows up in the attempt

Less glib: EU will argue that their solution is legal. Followers can parrot the argument. By the time WTO rules one way or the other, the policy will have solved short term problem.
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
Because it's almost certainly WTO-illegal, and that's a bridge the EU has up until now refused to cross.
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
oops - sorry - details by *2025*
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
BCA levels playing field between domestic goods paying a carbon price and imported goods. But only in domestic markets. A producer exporting a significant % of production will be hooped, sending commodities burdened by a C-price into global markets. CAD producers export a high % of their production.
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
This opens the door for other countries considering BCA (e.g., UK, Norway, Australia, Canada) to follow suit.

I’ve argued the main reason Canada can’t do a BCA is hesitation to implement a potentially WTO-illegal export adjustment (Canada’s export percentages being much higher than the EU’s).
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
Details by end of 2050. Per the proposal, will be:

• Quickly adopted
• Proportional to phase out of free allocation
• Contingent on progress on decarbonization (?)
• WTO legal

On that last point, let’s see: many argue it’s not possible. (3/4)
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
This was inevitable. Those industries are under pressure from high feedstock/fuel prices, global over-supply. Losing their export markets (which they would if no export adjustment) would be a death knell for many, would be a major source of carbon leakage. (2/4)
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
Breaking: European Commission has proposed that CBAM-covered producers of steel, aluminum, cement & fertilizers will be relieved of the EU ETS carbon price for exports. Some thoughts. (1/4)

bit.ly/4knZmZl
bit.ly
Reposted by Aaron Cosbey
ianwalker.bsky.social
The economics version of "It doesn't count if it's not on Strava"
solarchase.bsky.social
One interesting angle on the rise of solar (and batteries) is that fossil fuel burn contributes directly and trackably to GDP measures of economic activity, while power generation used directly does not.

Presumably the purchase of equipment counts in GDP, but after that it's an avoided cost.
Reposted by Aaron Cosbey
aradwanski.bsky.social
This isn't surprising, in that the emissions cap has for a while seemed an obvious sacrificial lamb. But if Ottawa sees it as potentially a straight-up trade-off for Pathways (oil-sands carbon capture) finally happening, I think it's missing a step. www.thestar.com/politics/fed...
Insiders say Mark Carney could compromise on emissions cap
Once hailed under prime minister Justin Trudeau's leadership as a marquee plank of Canada's climate action under the Liberal government, the proposed emissions cap is also politically contentious, wit...
www.thestar.com
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
Thoughtful coverage of our new report calling for a new Canadian industrial strategy.

We lay out specific recommendations, based on the lessons of successful Canadian and international industrial policies.

carboncompetitiveness.ca/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Aaron Cosbey
aaroncosbey.bsky.social
In that same request for consultations: an argument against free allocation to sectors at high risk of leakage under the EU ETS, alleging that it's an export subsidy.