Jenny Chase
@solarchase.bsky.social
Solar analyst at BloombergNEF, goose keeper. Author of a book, "Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon". Opinions all my own.
Pinned
Jenny Chase
@solarchase.bsky.social
· Oct 20
Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon
www.worldscientific.com
Time for 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of November 2025.
www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...
www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...
I thought this had to be wrong on US PV manufacturing capacity, but checked my team's work, and yeah for module manufacturing capacity it's about right.
January 7, 2026 at 3:55 PM
I thought this had to be wrong on US PV manufacturing capacity, but checked my team's work, and yeah for module manufacturing capacity it's about right.
I think it was 800MW/week or 41.6GW per year... but yes BNEF estimates even the US built about 51GW of solar in 2025, so....
Isn’t 400 MW times 52 weeks, 20.8 GW? And are t we doing at least double that already?
January 7, 2026 at 11:23 AM
I think it was 800MW/week or 41.6GW per year... but yes BNEF estimates even the US built about 51GW of solar in 2025, so....
Also China built just over a gigawatt (DC) each day of solar in 2025. Obviously the US is a much smaller country (about a quarter of the population), but even so, that shouldn't be impossible.
Quoting two professors of environmental laws at UCLA, the authors write that the US needs to bring online two 400MW of solar facilities a week for the next 30 years. The authors quote these academics as saying each of these would take up 2000 acres. This is taken at face value.
January 7, 2026 at 7:59 AM
Also China built just over a gigawatt (DC) each day of solar in 2025. Obviously the US is a much smaller country (about a quarter of the population), but even so, that shouldn't be impossible.
I feel like I should read Abundance, apparently I am quoted in it, I should read it to have an informed opinion, but... ugh... I do so hate nonfiction polemics.
This thread is an interesting overview of thoughts.
This thread is an interesting overview of thoughts.
I'm reading through Abundance because everyone seemed to, and I'm not yet in a position to offer a critique but a few things have caught my attention. I'll collate a few here as I go.
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January 7, 2026 at 7:37 AM
I feel like I should read Abundance, apparently I am quoted in it, I should read it to have an informed opinion, but... ugh... I do so hate nonfiction polemics.
This thread is an interesting overview of thoughts.
This thread is an interesting overview of thoughts.
I'm tempted to ask "is this real?" but it sounds like Gavin is vouching for it so... wow.
I thought the little girl was paddling the car along by hand at first.
I thought the little girl was paddling the car along by hand at first.
Chinese innovation has reached crazy levels. This is a Yangwang U8 luxury, high performance, plug-in hybrid off-roader. I got to drive one in China and it's just out of this world. And while it 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 float, drivers are advised to take the car to a service center immediately for an automotive colonic.
January 7, 2026 at 7:08 AM
I'm tempted to ask "is this real?" but it sounds like Gavin is vouching for it so... wow.
I thought the little girl was paddling the car along by hand at first.
I thought the little girl was paddling the car along by hand at first.
The most interesting part of this was that the article does address the cause / correlation question.
(My prior would have been to assume that the people with the sense to get vaccinated were less likely to be developing dementia and other conditions, but maybe it is not just that).
(My prior would have been to assume that the people with the sense to get vaccinated were less likely to be developing dementia and other conditions, but maybe it is not just that).
January 6, 2026 at 12:44 PM
The most interesting part of this was that the article does address the cause / correlation question.
(My prior would have been to assume that the people with the sense to get vaccinated were less likely to be developing dementia and other conditions, but maybe it is not just that).
(My prior would have been to assume that the people with the sense to get vaccinated were less likely to be developing dementia and other conditions, but maybe it is not just that).
First day back at work after maternity leave, and in my new office in the basement (the baby has my old office). I have company.
January 5, 2026 at 3:51 PM
First day back at work after maternity leave, and in my new office in the basement (the baby has my old office). I have company.
I too found the notion that Africa handed some power to China annoying in this article. Chinese companies are just selling good products to African customers, who use them.
(Solar manufacturing is a bad business to be in, generally. Viciously competitive).
(Solar manufacturing is a bad business to be in, generally. Viciously competitive).
Gift link for a fascinating & characteristically problematic NYTimes article:
What's problematic is the wholesale importation (pun intended) of the empty-headed zero-sum Trumpian view of trade. China sells & finances African solar, which is bad because...Africa won't build solar factories? C'mon
What's problematic is the wholesale importation (pun intended) of the empty-headed zero-sum Trumpian view of trade. China sells & finances African solar, which is bad because...Africa won't build solar factories? C'mon
Cheap Solar Is Transforming Lives and Economies Across Africa
www.nytimes.com
December 31, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I too found the notion that Africa handed some power to China annoying in this article. Chinese companies are just selling good products to African customers, who use them.
(Solar manufacturing is a bad business to be in, generally. Viciously competitive).
(Solar manufacturing is a bad business to be in, generally. Viciously competitive).
When feeding the baby: wash hands, boil the water, clean the bottles with hot soapy water, sterilise the gherkin jar we mix it up in...
The baby: sucks the floor
The baby: sucks the floor
December 31, 2025 at 1:49 PM
When feeding the baby: wash hands, boil the water, clean the bottles with hot soapy water, sterilise the gherkin jar we mix it up in...
The baby: sucks the floor
The baby: sucks the floor
Me, trying and failing to stuff my 4-month-old baby into a babygrow labelled "12 months": I think babies just got bigger than they used to be.
December 27, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Me, trying and failing to stuff my 4-month-old baby into a babygrow labelled "12 months": I think babies just got bigger than they used to be.
One more for "you can install solar panels yourself on your garage wall, but sometimes you shouldn't".
(Might be vandalism, might be kids kicking footballs - either way I don't think those panels will be able to claim on warranty. Roofs have advantages!).
(Might be vandalism, might be kids kicking footballs - either way I don't think those panels will be able to claim on warranty. Roofs have advantages!).
December 26, 2025 at 11:07 PM
One more for "you can install solar panels yourself on your garage wall, but sometimes you shouldn't".
(Might be vandalism, might be kids kicking footballs - either way I don't think those panels will be able to claim on warranty. Roofs have advantages!).
(Might be vandalism, might be kids kicking footballs - either way I don't think those panels will be able to claim on warranty. Roofs have advantages!).
The BNEF PV new build estimate for 2025 is now just 655GW(DC) after downward revisions for the China market, with a small decline expected in 2026 as China, Brazil, Europe contract.
There is just a lot of solar in the major markets now, and negative feedback is kicking in.
There is just a lot of solar in the major markets now, and negative feedback is kicking in.
800 GW would be more than 100 GW above what BNEF projected not so long ago! 😲 @solarchase.bsky.social can you corroborate? bsky.app/profile/sola...
42. Annual build volumes of solar are rising, but they are not guaranteed to rise forever. This is a symptom of solar starting to actually make a dent in power demand, with negative feedback effects such as power price cannibalization.
December 23, 2025 at 7:22 AM
The BNEF PV new build estimate for 2025 is now just 655GW(DC) after downward revisions for the China market, with a small decline expected in 2026 as China, Brazil, Europe contract.
There is just a lot of solar in the major markets now, and negative feedback is kicking in.
There is just a lot of solar in the major markets now, and negative feedback is kicking in.
The UK got 54.7% of its electricity generation from renewables in the third quarter of 2025. Though because nuclear and hydro generation was down year-on-year, gas generation was up.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6941a0...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6941a0...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
December 18, 2025 at 9:44 AM
The UK got 54.7% of its electricity generation from renewables in the third quarter of 2025. Though because nuclear and hydro generation was down year-on-year, gas generation was up.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6941a0...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6941a0...
Vegan cream cheese has got really good.
December 18, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Vegan cream cheese has got really good.
This is possibly the nicest thing anyone has ever said to me.
Good deal on a great book and perfect for anybody working in energy.
It’s like @xkcd.com’s Thing Explainer book, but for solar.
It’s like @xkcd.com’s Thing Explainer book, but for solar.
World Scientific Publishing has a deal on my book for Kindle - $20 or £20 - until the end of February 2026.
(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it!)
(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it!)
December 17, 2025 at 1:48 PM
This is possibly the nicest thing anyone has ever said to me.
World Scientific Publishing has a deal on my book for Kindle - $20 or £20 - until the end of February 2026.
(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it!)
(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it!)
December 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
World Scientific Publishing has a deal on my book for Kindle - $20 or £20 - until the end of February 2026.
(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it!)
(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it!)
You can put solar panels up anywhere and in any way, but maybe you shouldn't.
December 16, 2025 at 5:19 PM
You can put solar panels up anywhere and in any way, but maybe you shouldn't.
This is a good detailed story. At one point, direct resistance electric heating protected the early vine shoots from frost...
I remain skeptical that grapevines in Germany really need protection from the sun.
Also the last bit is basically "winegrowing is way harder than PV", which, yeah.
I remain skeptical that grapevines in Germany really need protection from the sun.
Also the last bit is basically "winegrowing is way harder than PV", which, yeah.
December 13, 2025 at 12:13 PM
This is a good detailed story. At one point, direct resistance electric heating protected the early vine shoots from frost...
I remain skeptical that grapevines in Germany really need protection from the sun.
Also the last bit is basically "winegrowing is way harder than PV", which, yeah.
I remain skeptical that grapevines in Germany really need protection from the sun.
Also the last bit is basically "winegrowing is way harder than PV", which, yeah.
Reposted by Jenny Chase
At last, a chance to repost my favourite ever font-related controversy with alt-text, now that Calibri is back in the news.
December 11, 2025 at 12:56 PM
At last, a chance to repost my favourite ever font-related controversy with alt-text, now that Calibri is back in the news.
If you see this, repost with your model of positive masculinity.
December 7, 2025 at 8:02 AM
If you see this, repost with your model of positive masculinity.
On maternity leave I have played Zelda: Breath of the Wild, and yes. So fun. So beautiful.
Even though running / riding around pretty countryside, often in the pouring rain, on miscellaneous errands is a big part of my real life. So is cooking. In BOTW you don't have to do laundry and you can FLY.
Even though running / riding around pretty countryside, often in the pouring rain, on miscellaneous errands is a big part of my real life. So is cooking. In BOTW you don't have to do laundry and you can FLY.
in this week's column! I discuss what it took for me to become an Adult Gamer and I argue that you, too, should play video games: youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/we-should-...
December 5, 2025 at 10:17 AM
On maternity leave I have played Zelda: Breath of the Wild, and yes. So fun. So beautiful.
Even though running / riding around pretty countryside, often in the pouring rain, on miscellaneous errands is a big part of my real life. So is cooking. In BOTW you don't have to do laundry and you can FLY.
Even though running / riding around pretty countryside, often in the pouring rain, on miscellaneous errands is a big part of my real life. So is cooking. In BOTW you don't have to do laundry and you can FLY.
Pedant point but as a former (failed, student) physicist I hate the word "electrons" being used for "electricity". While electrons are complicated (are they a wave? A particle? Beta radiation?) they're definitely not a substance you pour into a wire.
December 5, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Pedant point but as a former (failed, student) physicist I hate the word "electrons" being used for "electricity". While electrons are complicated (are they a wave? A particle? Beta radiation?) they're definitely not a substance you pour into a wire.
Reposted by Jenny Chase
As of today, there are more electric cars than diesel cars in Norway.
Flere elbiler enn dieselbiler i Norge
3. desember er en merkedag i norsk bilhistorie: Nå er elbil den mest vanlige personbil-typen på veiene i Norge.
elbil.no
December 3, 2025 at 6:55 PM
As of today, there are more electric cars than diesel cars in Norway.
Reposted by Jenny Chase
"[LNG]Imports for China this year are estimated at around 64.6 million tons, down from 78.27 million in 2024" Reuters (today).
Here is what that looks like for China compared to what was predicted by BloombergNEF in the middle of last year. So they forecasting mid 80s and it is actual mid 60s.
Here is what that looks like for China compared to what was predicted by BloombergNEF in the middle of last year. So they forecasting mid 80s and it is actual mid 60s.
December 2, 2025 at 10:30 AM
"[LNG]Imports for China this year are estimated at around 64.6 million tons, down from 78.27 million in 2024" Reuters (today).
Here is what that looks like for China compared to what was predicted by BloombergNEF in the middle of last year. So they forecasting mid 80s and it is actual mid 60s.
Here is what that looks like for China compared to what was predicted by BloombergNEF in the middle of last year. So they forecasting mid 80s and it is actual mid 60s.
Wait why is that actually an excellent idea from all angles.
my most dad-core belief is that the IRA should have been called the Defeat Inflation Program (DIP) so that it better paired with the other signature Biden policy -- the CHIPS act.
December 1, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Wait why is that actually an excellent idea from all angles.