Adam Corlett
@adamcorlett.bsky.social
Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation 🇬🇧 Views my own.
For prosperity; against poverty, pollution and animal suffering
For prosperity; against poverty, pollution and animal suffering
Reposted by Adam Corlett
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
Reposted by Adam Corlett
💥 Govt says fuel duty to *go up* from next September.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
November 26, 2025 at 12:46 PM
💥 Govt says fuel duty to *go up* from next September.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze.
This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.
It sounds like this Budget won't cut VAT on public EV charging, but will launch a review that might lead to doing it in Budget 2026
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Industry experts welcome extra incentives but fear a consultation on a mileage tax sends mixed messages
Drivers will be able to claim government subsidies to cut the cost of buying a new electric car until 2030 under plans to be announced by Rachel Reeves at next week’s budget.
The chancellor will unveil an extra £1.3bn for subsidies for new electric vehicles (EVs) and a further £200m for charging points, as she attempts to prevent the market for clean cars drying up amid concerns about a new pay-per-mile tax. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:29 PM
It sounds like this Budget won't cut VAT on public EV charging, but will launch a review that might lead to doing it in Budget 2026
Today I learned that NOx pollution from vehicles (esp. old diesels) and boilers interferes with insect scent. Yet another reason to electrify everything.
November 22, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Today I learned that NOx pollution from vehicles (esp. old diesels) and boilers interferes with insect scent. Yet another reason to electrify everything.
Reposted by Adam Corlett
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
November 20, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Reposted by Adam Corlett
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
November 19, 2025 at 8:33 PM
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
November 19, 2025 at 8:33 PM
It's *possible* the Budget could be very green:
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas
🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises
🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support
🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping
🟢 Help lower interest rates
A very worthwhile use of AI would be to work out when something on video footage was worth notifying the police (and owners). In future, 30 seconds into this, the police could already be aware, drones dispatched, number plates flagged and maybe even the car bricked. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Keyless car theft devices selling online for £20,000, BBC finds
It is not illegal currently to own the gadgets but the government has promised to ban them.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 19, 2025 at 10:12 AM
A very worthwhile use of AI would be to work out when something on video footage was worth notifying the police (and owners). In future, 30 seconds into this, the police could already be aware, drones dispatched, number plates flagged and maybe even the car bricked. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
This is a common take, but I think it rather depends on whether the changes are adding new unevenness to the tax system OR smoothing over existing unevenness
The United Kingdom really does have an unnecessarily complex tax system and adding c£20bn of fun little revenue raisers will not help. Today's newsletter:
Budget U-turn hammers UK competitiveness
Risky to raise revenue via tweaks and novel taxes, especially through rushed changes
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:41 PM
This is a common take, but I think it rather depends on whether the changes are adding new unevenness to the tax system OR smoothing over existing unevenness
One likely extra reason for this £50k bump is that the basic rate of dividend tax is only 8.75% – 25 points lower than the higher rate of 33.75% – so company owner-managers will plan their finances around that.
NEW - we've data showing huge numbers of people reducing their income to avoid high marginal income tax rates. Not just at the £100k point (as previously reported). But at the £50k point:
November 14, 2025 at 1:49 PM
One likely extra reason for this £50k bump is that the basic rate of dividend tax is only 8.75% – 25 points lower than the higher rate of 33.75% – so company owner-managers will plan their finances around that.
I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...
November 13, 2025 at 10:42 AM
I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...
Reposted by Adam Corlett
This is rhetorically the most pro-building govt ever, but housebuilding has ground to a halt and Heathrow still expect their planning app to cost £800m to produce.
The problem is there's a massive gap between what Labour say they want and what they're doing.
www.samdumitriu.com/p/rhetoric-v...
The problem is there's a massive gap between what Labour say they want and what they're doing.
www.samdumitriu.com/p/rhetoric-v...
Rhetoric vs. Reality
Slogans won’t get Britain building again
www.samdumitriu.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:45 PM
This is rhetorically the most pro-building govt ever, but housebuilding has ground to a halt and Heathrow still expect their planning app to cost £800m to produce.
The problem is there's a massive gap between what Labour say they want and what they're doing.
www.samdumitriu.com/p/rhetoric-v...
The problem is there's a massive gap between what Labour say they want and what they're doing.
www.samdumitriu.com/p/rhetoric-v...
Clearly tax rises and May elections will be hard for Labour, but don't be 100% gloomy: there is also very likely voter-friendly news ahead on falling inflation, price caps, immigration and interest rates - and a fair chance that the 2026 budget could show 'our plan is working, here are some rewards'
November 11, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Clearly tax rises and May elections will be hard for Labour, but don't be 100% gloomy: there is also very likely voter-friendly news ahead on falling inflation, price caps, immigration and interest rates - and a fair chance that the 2026 budget could show 'our plan is working, here are some rewards'
Clear conclusion from a new Animal Welfare Committee report about the main way pigs are killed: "Exposure to high concentrations of CO2 in commercial systems causes pigs to suffer pain, respiratory distress and fear... its use should be prohibited." www.gov.uk/government/p...
Opinion on the welfare impacts on pigs of high concentration CO2 gas stunning and of potential alternative stunning methods
www.gov.uk
November 10, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Clear conclusion from a new Animal Welfare Committee report about the main way pigs are killed: "Exposure to high concentrations of CO2 in commercial systems causes pigs to suffer pain, respiratory distress and fear... its use should be prohibited." www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Adam Corlett
Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise
November 8, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise
Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise
November 8, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise
Combining a couple of thoughts from this, perhaps a good way to do electoral reform (and what LDs should have demanded in 2010) is an (Irish-style) two-stage process where an independent Citizens' Assembly ponders the best system and then their choice is put to the rest of the public in a referendum
My interview with @iandunt.bsky.social on how the UK government got to be so bad.
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
It's not individuals but bad incentives and bad systems that make effective governance impossible.
We run through the UK's many institutional absurdities and how to fix them.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yfo...
Why Governments Can’t Get Anything Done and How We Can Fix It | Ian Dunt
YouTube video by 80,000 Hours
www.youtube.com
November 8, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Combining a couple of thoughts from this, perhaps a good way to do electoral reform (and what LDs should have demanded in 2010) is an (Irish-style) two-stage process where an independent Citizens' Assembly ponders the best system and then their choice is put to the rest of the public in a referendum
It is surely much easier to make this change now – while most voters are not directly affected – than in 5 or 10 years' time. Majority support on both the left and right.
By 43% to 34%, Britons support requiring electric vehicle drivers to pay a 'road use tax'
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
November 6, 2025 at 4:58 PM
It is surely much easier to make this change now – while most voters are not directly affected – than in 5 or 10 years' time. Majority support on both the left and right.
Today's Bank of England outlook continues to support the idea that the OBR's March wage forecast is too low – despite the coming productivity downgrade. e.g. OBR forecast 2.3% pay growth for 2026, but the Bank and businesses they talk to expect ~3.5%. This matters a lot for the fiscal outlook.
November 6, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Today's Bank of England outlook continues to support the idea that the OBR's March wage forecast is too low – despite the coming productivity downgrade. e.g. OBR forecast 2.3% pay growth for 2026, but the Bank and businesses they talk to expect ~3.5%. This matters a lot for the fiscal outlook.
This sounds promising: grappling with a big long-term tax issue. Though the suggested scale would be similar to the £200 EV VED rise that happened this April. And if the VAT 'pavement tax' were abolished at the same time, that might offset most of this cost for drivers without home chargers.
Thursday's TELEGRAPH: Pay per mile tax to hit drivers in Budget #TomorrowsPapersToday
November 6, 2025 at 9:07 AM
This sounds promising: grappling with a big long-term tax issue. Though the suggested scale would be similar to the £200 EV VED rise that happened this April. And if the VAT 'pavement tax' were abolished at the same time, that might offset most of this cost for drivers without home chargers.
Reposted by Adam Corlett
The Treasury is widely reported to be considering cutting energy bills, perhaps via a VAT cut. What's the best way to do this?
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
Tax-free electricity
A proposal to remove most taxes on electricity to reduce bills and promote clean heating
www.nesta.org.uk
November 5, 2025 at 1:09 PM
The Treasury is widely reported to be considering cutting energy bills, perhaps via a VAT cut. What's the best way to do this?
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
Not disagreeing with John's broader thesis here but I don't think this fact is true (& we can't trust the related rankings either). I think the UK top 10% are definitely better off than in 2000. The difference might be that this international data doesn't correct top incomes like domestic sources do
In fact, the UK’s top 10% now have lower post-tax incomes than they did 25 years ago.
(That contrasts to the overall median, which has risen by about 25%)
(That contrasts to the overall median, which has risen by about 25%)
November 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Not disagreeing with John's broader thesis here but I don't think this fact is true (& we can't trust the related rankings either). I think the UK top 10% are definitely better off than in 2000. The difference might be that this international data doesn't correct top incomes like domestic sources do
The Chancellor didn’t talk about tax reform this morning, but ideally the Budget would grapple with a range of longstanding tax problems. Here are 5 of the biggest challenges… www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Black holes and consolidations • Resolution Foundation
This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how the outlook ...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 4, 2025 at 3:16 PM
The Chancellor didn’t talk about tax reform this morning, but ideally the Budget would grapple with a range of longstanding tax problems. Here are 5 of the biggest challenges… www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.
November 4, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.
On the subject of how many households are "net recipients", this new chart of ONS data suggests that indirect taxes have plummeted. But I suspect this is mostly due to this survey missing more and more spending each year - rendering any related time series fairly useless.
October 27, 2025 at 11:21 AM
On the subject of how many households are "net recipients", this new chart of ONS data suggests that indirect taxes have plummeted. But I suspect this is mostly due to this survey missing more and more spending each year - rendering any related time series fairly useless.