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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · 1d

Huge milestone in today's BITRE data release: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level

www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...

Chart of the week #26: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level

This morning, BITRE released July 2025’s international aviation data, revealing an important milestone: international airline seat capacity has finally reached its pre-COVID level!

www.analyticflying.com

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · 13d

💥NEW ANALYSIS: Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition

A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond

www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...

Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition

Over the last few months we’ve seen Qantas and Jetstar come out swinging with new routes and capacity increases across its trans-Tasman network.

www.analyticflying.com

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · 15d

Finnair A330-300 (OH-LTU) spotted this weekend in the Qantas Silveroo livery getting ready for delivery as VH-QPL in the coming days.

Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · 15d

Isn't it ironic how Sydney Airport are shifting the narrative about slots? It's as if they read our article from last month:

www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...

Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · 26d

✈️🏉💰🇺🇸Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!

We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...

Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!

Last month, Qantas loaded several charter flights from Brisbane and Sydney to Los Vegas in February and March 2026 in support of Rugby League Las Vegas. This annual event is entering its third year in...

www.analyticflying.com

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Sep 11

Qantas's A321 XLR inaugural passenger flights 25 September. Rest of the schedule still to come!

QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Sep 9

The Australian government has launched a consultation into an airline industry ombudsman, excluding EU style compensation!

Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...

EU261: there's no such thing as a free lunch

Note: we started working on this piece in December 2024 when there was a lot of discussion regarding the implementation of a flight cancellation and delay compensation scheme in Australia.

www.analyticflying.com

Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Sep 2

🚨NEW: Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza

Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!

www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...

Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza

A very common comment that you’ll come across when engaging in the popular aviation discourse is that route X to Y will be a good size for **insert type of regional jet**.

www.analyticflying.com

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 17

That’s all true. Point that I’m making is that it’s easy to just critique Boeing and ignore what Airbus has done over 40 years to put them in a position to overtake Boeing.

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 17

Despite a 21 year head start, the 737 is about to be eclipsed by the A320 family in total deliveries. While this seemed unlikely as recently as 2018, is it a disservice to Airbus to frame this as a story about Boeing's failures?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Airbus Is About to Eclipse a Record That Boeing Held for Decades

In 1981, the year Airbus SE announced it would build a new single-aisle jetliner to take on Boeing Co., the 737 ruled the roost.

www.bloomberg.com

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 15

No. Pretty consistent over time with the bulk of the costs driven by fuel and leasing (see last tweet regarding fuel relative to revenue). Pricing just too cheap to fill aircraft on very thin routes.

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 15

5) Bonza's strategy just wasn't viable, tickets were too cheap relative to costs!

Some costs are controllable but their largest cost (fuel) is exogenous. Despite flying very fuel efficient aircraft, Bonza's fuel bill was 45% of revenue, significantly higher than LCC benchmarks!

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 14

4) Bonza said failure due to undercapitalisation but Administrators blamed poor strategic management:
-App only sales too limiting
-Low salaries led to staff shortages
-Prices too low to cover expenses
-Unplanned & expensive wet leases burnt cash
-Inaccurate financial modelling

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 12

3) Tim Jordan told Australian Aviation in January 2024 that Bonza was "not so far away" from breaking even & was "well on the way" to profitability in 2024.

In fact losses were widening. Cumulative net loss only flatlined when they started cancelling flights in April!

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 11

2) Administrators calculated Bonza's avg fare at $104, 26% lower than market avg $141. Flogging tickets to fill aircraft doesn't mean "model works brilliantly", especially on thin low frequency routes. We disagreed with Bradley Davren, CEO of Bonza's MRO provider at the time.

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 11

www.analyticflying.com/p/air-new-ze...

Air New Zealand getting eaten alive by Qantas

Last year we did an analysis of Qantas’s decision to reroute its New York flights through Auckland, replacing their historic Los Angeles-New York tag-on flight.

www.analyticflying.com

Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 11

🚨Word on the street is Qantas's 🇦🇺Sydney → 🇳🇿Auckland → 🇺🇸🍎New York increasing to daily for NS26 (currently 5x/week)!

How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...

Reminder below:

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 11

Just how wacked was Bonza? Each day this week we'll share a finding from our analysis of the report to creditors:

1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 8

Yes, you spend a large portion of the flight flying through the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 8

Just sequencing as the inbound arrival rate is slowed in low visibility ops.

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Aug 7

Just how constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?

It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...

How constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?

New insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report

www.analyticflying.com

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Jul 24

They do it a little already → QF use FIFO aircraft on commercial ops like PER-DRW/HBA/NTL, but limited as they always need to get aircraft back to PER in narrow window (charters have guarantees). Easier for VA as only have 8 to find uses for, yet QF would need to find use for 38!

Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Jul 24

Challenge is crowding out. FIFO are charters, so customer gets what they want & they want that schedule! To balance you'd need to shift more commercial ops to Sat/Sun. They're already lower utilisation on Sat/Sun, indicative of <yields → shifting capacity ↓yields more.

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Jul 24

Mines operate 7 days/week. Work rosters are in week/s on, week off format. It's not the work week (Mon to Fri), but 7 day work week. Starts are staggered around midweek, ensuring week off includes full weekend at home & eliminating weekend communiting.

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Analytic Flying @analyticflying.com · Jul 23

🚨NEW: Ever wondered why airlines always seem to use really old aircraft on FIFO charter flights?

There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...

Why does Qantas acquire old aircraft for FIFO charters?

Over the last few months, Qantas have announced additions to their FIFO (fly-in fly-out) mining charter fleet in Western Australia.

www.analyticflying.com

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