Analytic Flying
@analyticflying.com
Independent economic & financial analysis on the Australian commercial aviation market.
YIMBY for YMML 16R/34L! 🇦🇺
www.analyticflying.com
YIMBY for YMML 16R/34L! 🇦🇺
www.analyticflying.com
✈️ 🇦🇺 🇱🇰 A few weeks ago we saw a rumour circulating on regarding Jetstar starting a new route between Melbourne and Colombo. We typically take a dim view of new route speculation, but this one seems plausible. We decided to take a detailed look:
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
Is the Jetstar to Sri Lanka rumour credible?
We hate speculation and we really hate speculation surrounding new routes.
www.analyticflying.com
November 3, 2025 at 9:25 PM
✈️ 🇦🇺 🇱🇰 A few weeks ago we saw a rumour circulating on regarding Jetstar starting a new route between Melbourne and Colombo. We typically take a dim view of new route speculation, but this one seems plausible. We decided to take a detailed look:
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
www.analyticflying.com/p/is-the-jet...
Virgin’s missing million international seats a boon for Jetstar
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Virgin’s missing million seats a boon for Jetstar
The gap made by the exit of the country’s second-largest airline from many overseas routes has been filled by Qantas’ low-cost carrier, new data shows.
www.afr.com
October 27, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Virgin’s missing million international seats a boon for Jetstar
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Thanks to AFR for using our data! Data is available on our updated Capacity Tracker dashboard. Filter data by any combination of airline, city, and country of origin. Link in reply ⬇️
www.afr.com/companies/tr...
Five and a half years! That's what is took Australian international airline capacity to recover what was destroyed in a few weeks by the COVID-19 pandemic.
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
Five and a half years!
That's what is took Australian international airline capacity to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic
www.analyticflying.com
October 21, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Five and a half years! That's what is took Australian international airline capacity to recover what was destroyed in a few weeks by the COVID-19 pandemic.
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
We take a data driven look at just how things have changed. Who are the winners and losers?
www.analyticflying.com/p/five-and-a...
Huge milestone in today's BITRE data release: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
Chart of the week #26: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level
This morning, BITRE released July 2025’s international aviation data, revealing an important milestone: international airline seat capacity has finally reached its pre-COVID level!
www.analyticflying.com
October 13, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Huge milestone in today's BITRE data release: Australian international airline seat capacity finally reaches its pre-COVID level
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
www.analyticflying.com/p/chart-of-t...
💥NEW ANALYSIS: Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition
Over the last few months we’ve seen Qantas and Jetstar come out swinging with new routes and capacity increases across its trans-Tasman network.
www.analyticflying.com
September 30, 2025 at 11:54 PM
💥NEW ANALYSIS: Dismal prospects for trans-Tasman competition
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
A detailed look:
🔴Why Qantas & Jetstar's increasing dominance is bad
🔴Why Air NZ can't respond
🔴Why 5th freedom carriers won't respond
🔴And why Virgin have no incentive to respond
www.analyticflying.com/p/dismal-pro...
Finnair A330-300 (OH-LTU) spotted this weekend in the Qantas Silveroo livery getting ready for delivery as VH-QPL in the coming days.
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
September 29, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Finnair A330-300 (OH-LTU) spotted this weekend in the Qantas Silveroo livery getting ready for delivery as VH-QPL in the coming days.
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Isn't it ironic how Sydney Airport are shifting the narrative about slots? It's as if they read our article from last month:
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
September 28, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Isn't it ironic how Sydney Airport are shifting the narrative about slots? It's as if they read our article from last month:
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
✈️🏉💰🇺🇸Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!
Last month, Qantas loaded several charter flights from Brisbane and Sydney to Los Vegas in February and March 2026 in support of Rugby League Las Vegas. This annual event is entering its third year in...
www.analyticflying.com
September 18, 2025 at 3:39 AM
✈️🏉💰🇺🇸Scheduling fun & games: Qantas's Las Vegas NRL charters!
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
We worked out how Qantas are scheduling 8 long haul charters without empty legs!
www.analyticflying.com/p/scheduling...
Qantas's A321 XLR inaugural passenger flights 25 September. Rest of the schedule still to come!
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
September 11, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Qantas's A321 XLR inaugural passenger flights 25 September. Rest of the schedule still to come!
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
The Australian government has launched a consultation into an airline industry ombudsman, excluding EU style compensation!
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
EU261: there's no such thing as a free lunch
Note: we started working on this piece in December 2024 when there was a lot of discussion regarding the implementation of a flight cancellation and delay compensation scheme in Australia.
www.analyticflying.com
September 9, 2025 at 12:00 AM
The Australian government has launched a consultation into an airline industry ombudsman, excluding EU style compensation!
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
Our analysis shows how compensation schemes won't reduce cancellations & delays. Instead, airlines will minimise compensation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/eu261-ther...
🚨NEW: Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza
A very common comment that you’ll come across when engaging in the popular aviation discourse is that route X to Y will be a good size for **insert type of regional jet**.
www.analyticflying.com
September 2, 2025 at 3:16 AM
🚨NEW: Why regional jets are misunderstood and why they wouldn't have worked for Bonza
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Smaller aircraft have a lower "trip cost", but higher costs per seat per kilometer, making it difficult for low cost carriers to use them to sell cheap tickets!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-region...
Despite a 21 year head start, the 737 is about to be eclipsed by the A320 family in total deliveries. While this seemed unlikely as recently as 2018, is it a disservice to Airbus to frame this as a story about Boeing's failures?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Airbus Is About to Eclipse a Record That Boeing Held for Decades
In 1981, the year Airbus SE announced it would build a new single-aisle jetliner to take on Boeing Co., the 737 ruled the roost.
www.bloomberg.com
August 17, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Despite a 21 year head start, the 737 is about to be eclipsed by the A320 family in total deliveries. While this seemed unlikely as recently as 2018, is it a disservice to Airbus to frame this as a story about Boeing's failures?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
🚨Word on the street is Qantas's 🇦🇺Sydney → 🇳🇿Auckland → 🇺🇸🍎New York increasing to daily for NS26 (currently 5x/week)!
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
August 11, 2025 at 11:08 PM
🚨Word on the street is Qantas's 🇦🇺Sydney → 🇳🇿Auckland → 🇺🇸🍎New York increasing to daily for NS26 (currently 5x/week)!
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
How much longer can/will Air NZ persist? Route building is a noble endeavour but burning money when fleet availability is scarce seems ...
Reminder below:
Just how wacked was Bonza? Each day this week we'll share a finding from our analysis of the report to creditors:
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
August 11, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Just how wacked was Bonza? Each day this week we'll share a finding from our analysis of the report to creditors:
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
1) Bonza incurred net losses of $134m on revenue of just $115m. That means for every $100 in ticket revenue it cost them $248 to fly!
Just how constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
How constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?
New insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report
www.analyticflying.com
August 7, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Just how constrained are Sydney Airport's slots?
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
It's complicated but insights from Sydney's first public Initial Coordination Report shows it's less constrained than you might have thought! Only 66% of slots are allocated compared to 96% at Heathrow!
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
🚨NEW: Ever wondered why airlines always seem to use really old aircraft on FIFO charter flights?
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...
Why does Qantas acquire old aircraft for FIFO charters?
Over the last few months, Qantas have announced additions to their FIFO (fly-in fly-out) mining charter fleet in Western Australia.
www.analyticflying.com
July 23, 2025 at 11:18 PM
🚨NEW: Ever wondered why airlines always seem to use really old aircraft on FIFO charter flights?
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...
There's a good reason: it's all about the peculiar scheduling → flights concentrated on Tue & Wed → low aircraft utilisation!
www.analyticflying.com/p/why-does-q...
We passed a small milestone this week with our 500th subscriber!
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
July 23, 2025 at 4:14 AM
We passed a small milestone this week with our 500th subscriber!
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
Revisiting the Jetstar Asia closure: Qantas & Jetstar have significantly increased Asian capacity over the last year, allowing them to bypass Singapore more (data excludes Singapore)!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
June 17, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Revisiting the Jetstar Asia closure: Qantas & Jetstar have significantly increased Asian capacity over the last year, allowing them to bypass Singapore more (data excludes Singapore)!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
Qantas to close Jetstar Asia: a story of evolving network strategy & changing opportunity cost of capital allocation alongside supply side capacity constraints. Also a story about back luck & tough love.
www.analyticflying.com/p/qantas-gro...
www.analyticflying.com/p/qantas-gro...
Qantas Group to close Jetstar Asia
Qantas surprised us all today with the announcement that Jetstar Asia will be wound up in the coming months.
www.analyticflying.com
June 12, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Qantas to close Jetstar Asia: a story of evolving network strategy & changing opportunity cost of capital allocation alongside supply side capacity constraints. Also a story about back luck & tough love.
www.analyticflying.com/p/qantas-gro...
www.analyticflying.com/p/qantas-gro...
Some data to contextualise QF's new seasonal ADL-AKL (4x/week, B738, 31/10→3/5):
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
May 15, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Some data to contextualise QF's new seasonal ADL-AKL (4x/week, B738, 31/10→3/5):
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
💥Another Qantas update: confirmation that Sydney-Honolulu will switch to Finnair A330-300s from 30 Mar 2026!
First indication of future of Finnair A330s when they switch from wetlease to Qantas operated. This was suggested a few weeks back by some friends here & now confirmed.
First indication of future of Finnair A330s when they switch from wetlease to Qantas operated. This was suggested a few weeks back by some friends here & now confirmed.
May 12, 2025 at 5:50 AM
💥Another Qantas update: confirmation that Sydney-Honolulu will switch to Finnair A330-300s from 30 Mar 2026!
First indication of future of Finnair A330s when they switch from wetlease to Qantas operated. This was suggested a few weeks back by some friends here & now confirmed.
First indication of future of Finnair A330s when they switch from wetlease to Qantas operated. This was suggested a few weeks back by some friends here & now confirmed.
Marketing guys have run amok here! How many of these connections are even viable?
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
May 6, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Marketing guys have run amok here! How many of these connections are even viable?
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
More US updates from Qantas:
🔴SYD-DFW (Jan): daily A380; prev announced 4x/week A380 3x/week B789 (Aug)
🔴BNE-LAX (Oct): daily B789; prev announced 3x/week B789 4x/week A332 (Aug)
🔴Dec-Jan seasonal: AA takes over 3x/week BNE-LAX (QF ↓ 4x/week); MEL-DFW ↑daily from 4x/week
🔴SYD-DFW (Jan): daily A380; prev announced 4x/week A380 3x/week B789 (Aug)
🔴BNE-LAX (Oct): daily B789; prev announced 3x/week B789 4x/week A332 (Aug)
🔴Dec-Jan seasonal: AA takes over 3x/week BNE-LAX (QF ↓ 4x/week); MEL-DFW ↑daily from 4x/week
May 6, 2025 at 1:37 AM
More US updates from Qantas:
🔴SYD-DFW (Jan): daily A380; prev announced 4x/week A380 3x/week B789 (Aug)
🔴BNE-LAX (Oct): daily B789; prev announced 3x/week B789 4x/week A332 (Aug)
🔴Dec-Jan seasonal: AA takes over 3x/week BNE-LAX (QF ↓ 4x/week); MEL-DFW ↑daily from 4x/week
🔴SYD-DFW (Jan): daily A380; prev announced 4x/week A380 3x/week B789 (Aug)
🔴BNE-LAX (Oct): daily B789; prev announced 3x/week B789 4x/week A332 (Aug)
🔴Dec-Jan seasonal: AA takes over 3x/week BNE-LAX (QF ↓ 4x/week); MEL-DFW ↑daily from 4x/week
Following from Melbourne-Honolulu Jetstar → Qantas switch, Jetstar will also exit Sydney-Honolulu from end of Oct 2025. Not surprising after Melbourne shift!
Significant international network changes from Qantas & Jetstar last week:
🇺🇸Melbourne-Honolulu: 3x weekly flight switches Jetstar → Qantas
🇰🇷Sydney-Seoul: 3x weekly Qantas ends this week; Jetstar 4x weekly ↑ daily from next month
🇺🇸Melbourne-Honolulu: 3x weekly flight switches Jetstar → Qantas
🇰🇷Sydney-Seoul: 3x weekly Qantas ends this week; Jetstar 4x weekly ↑ daily from next month
May 6, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Following from Melbourne-Honolulu Jetstar → Qantas switch, Jetstar will also exit Sydney-Honolulu from end of Oct 2025. Not surprising after Melbourne shift!
Significant international network changes from Qantas & Jetstar last week:
🇺🇸Melbourne-Honolulu: 3x weekly flight switches Jetstar → Qantas
🇰🇷Sydney-Seoul: 3x weekly Qantas ends this week; Jetstar 4x weekly ↑ daily from next month
🇺🇸Melbourne-Honolulu: 3x weekly flight switches Jetstar → Qantas
🇰🇷Sydney-Seoul: 3x weekly Qantas ends this week; Jetstar 4x weekly ↑ daily from next month
May 6, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Significant international network changes from Qantas & Jetstar last week:
🇺🇸Melbourne-Honolulu: 3x weekly flight switches Jetstar → Qantas
🇰🇷Sydney-Seoul: 3x weekly Qantas ends this week; Jetstar 4x weekly ↑ daily from next month
🇺🇸Melbourne-Honolulu: 3x weekly flight switches Jetstar → Qantas
🇰🇷Sydney-Seoul: 3x weekly Qantas ends this week; Jetstar 4x weekly ↑ daily from next month