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analyticflying.com
Analytic Flying
@analyticflying.com
Independent economic & financial analysis on the Australian commercial aviation market.

YIMBY for YMML 16R/34L! 🇦🇺

www.analyticflying.com
That’s all true. Point that I’m making is that it’s easy to just critique Boeing and ignore what Airbus has done over 40 years to put them in a position to overtake Boeing.
August 17, 2025 at 9:02 PM
No. Pretty consistent over time with the bulk of the costs driven by fuel and leasing (see last tweet regarding fuel relative to revenue). Pricing just too cheap to fill aircraft on very thin routes.
August 15, 2025 at 4:15 AM
5) Bonza's strategy just wasn't viable, tickets were too cheap relative to costs!

Some costs are controllable but their largest cost (fuel) is exogenous. Despite flying very fuel efficient aircraft, Bonza's fuel bill was 45% of revenue, significantly higher than LCC benchmarks!
August 15, 2025 at 1:30 AM
4) Bonza said failure due to undercapitalisation but Administrators blamed poor strategic management:
-App only sales too limiting
-Low salaries led to staff shortages
-Prices too low to cover expenses
-Unplanned & expensive wet leases burnt cash
-Inaccurate financial modelling
August 14, 2025 at 1:32 AM
3) Tim Jordan told Australian Aviation in January 2024 that Bonza was "not so far away" from breaking even & was "well on the way" to profitability in 2024.

In fact losses were widening. Cumulative net loss only flatlined when they started cancelling flights in April!
August 12, 2025 at 11:23 PM
2) Administrators calculated Bonza's avg fare at $104, 26% lower than market avg $141. Flogging tickets to fill aircraft doesn't mean "model works brilliantly", especially on thin low frequency routes. We disagreed with Bradley Davren, CEO of Bonza's MRO provider at the time.
August 11, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Yes, you spend a large portion of the flight flying through the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
August 8, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Just sequencing as the inbound arrival rate is slowed in low visibility ops.
August 8, 2025 at 6:47 AM