Analytic Flying
@analyticflying.com
Independent economic & financial analysis on the Australian commercial aviation market.
YIMBY for YMML 16R/34L! 🇦🇺
www.analyticflying.com
YIMBY for YMML 16R/34L! 🇦🇺
www.analyticflying.com
🚨💥Absolutely wild Josh Cahill story ...
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
November 11, 2025 at 8:42 AM
🚨💥Absolutely wild Josh Cahill story ...
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
A few weeks ago he posted a scathing critique of Air Côte d'Ivoire, claiming airline & staff scammed him. Following a response from Ivorian Foreign Minister, he quietly deleted it!
TLDR 🧵
Finnair A330-300 (OH-LTU) spotted this weekend in the Qantas Silveroo livery getting ready for delivery as VH-QPL in the coming days.
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
September 29, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Finnair A330-300 (OH-LTU) spotted this weekend in the Qantas Silveroo livery getting ready for delivery as VH-QPL in the coming days.
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Credit to Owen Yue Yijia & Jetphotos: jetphotos.com/photo/11832721
Isn't it ironic how Sydney Airport are shifting the narrative about slots? It's as if they read our article from last month:
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
September 28, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Isn't it ironic how Sydney Airport are shifting the narrative about slots? It's as if they read our article from last month:
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
www.analyticflying.com/p/how-constr...
Qantas's A321 XLR inaugural passenger flights 25 September. Rest of the schedule still to come!
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
September 11, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Qantas's A321 XLR inaugural passenger flights 25 September. Rest of the schedule still to come!
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
QF645 SYD PER 10.35am 1.35pm
QF650 PER SYD 2.35pm 8.40pm
QF467 SYD MEL 4.20pm 5.55pm
QF484 MEL SYD 6.50pm 8.15pm
5) Bonza's strategy just wasn't viable, tickets were too cheap relative to costs!
Some costs are controllable but their largest cost (fuel) is exogenous. Despite flying very fuel efficient aircraft, Bonza's fuel bill was 45% of revenue, significantly higher than LCC benchmarks!
Some costs are controllable but their largest cost (fuel) is exogenous. Despite flying very fuel efficient aircraft, Bonza's fuel bill was 45% of revenue, significantly higher than LCC benchmarks!
August 15, 2025 at 1:30 AM
5) Bonza's strategy just wasn't viable, tickets were too cheap relative to costs!
Some costs are controllable but their largest cost (fuel) is exogenous. Despite flying very fuel efficient aircraft, Bonza's fuel bill was 45% of revenue, significantly higher than LCC benchmarks!
Some costs are controllable but their largest cost (fuel) is exogenous. Despite flying very fuel efficient aircraft, Bonza's fuel bill was 45% of revenue, significantly higher than LCC benchmarks!
4) Bonza said failure due to undercapitalisation but Administrators blamed poor strategic management:
-App only sales too limiting
-Low salaries led to staff shortages
-Prices too low to cover expenses
-Unplanned & expensive wet leases burnt cash
-Inaccurate financial modelling
-App only sales too limiting
-Low salaries led to staff shortages
-Prices too low to cover expenses
-Unplanned & expensive wet leases burnt cash
-Inaccurate financial modelling
August 14, 2025 at 1:32 AM
4) Bonza said failure due to undercapitalisation but Administrators blamed poor strategic management:
-App only sales too limiting
-Low salaries led to staff shortages
-Prices too low to cover expenses
-Unplanned & expensive wet leases burnt cash
-Inaccurate financial modelling
-App only sales too limiting
-Low salaries led to staff shortages
-Prices too low to cover expenses
-Unplanned & expensive wet leases burnt cash
-Inaccurate financial modelling
3) Tim Jordan told Australian Aviation in January 2024 that Bonza was "not so far away" from breaking even & was "well on the way" to profitability in 2024.
In fact losses were widening. Cumulative net loss only flatlined when they started cancelling flights in April!
In fact losses were widening. Cumulative net loss only flatlined when they started cancelling flights in April!
August 12, 2025 at 11:23 PM
3) Tim Jordan told Australian Aviation in January 2024 that Bonza was "not so far away" from breaking even & was "well on the way" to profitability in 2024.
In fact losses were widening. Cumulative net loss only flatlined when they started cancelling flights in April!
In fact losses were widening. Cumulative net loss only flatlined when they started cancelling flights in April!
2) Administrators calculated Bonza's avg fare at $104, 26% lower than market avg $141. Flogging tickets to fill aircraft doesn't mean "model works brilliantly", especially on thin low frequency routes. We disagreed with Bradley Davren, CEO of Bonza's MRO provider at the time.
August 11, 2025 at 11:21 PM
2) Administrators calculated Bonza's avg fare at $104, 26% lower than market avg $141. Flogging tickets to fill aircraft doesn't mean "model works brilliantly", especially on thin low frequency routes. We disagreed with Bradley Davren, CEO of Bonza's MRO provider at the time.
Challenge is crowding out. FIFO are charters, so customer gets what they want & they want that schedule! To balance you'd need to shift more commercial ops to Sat/Sun. They're already lower utilisation on Sat/Sun, indicative of <yields → shifting capacity ↓yields more.
July 24, 2025 at 5:29 AM
Challenge is crowding out. FIFO are charters, so customer gets what they want & they want that schedule! To balance you'd need to shift more commercial ops to Sat/Sun. They're already lower utilisation on Sat/Sun, indicative of <yields → shifting capacity ↓yields more.
We passed a small milestone this week with our 500th subscriber!
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
July 23, 2025 at 4:14 AM
We passed a small milestone this week with our 500th subscriber!
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
It's not big but it's 500 people who choose to receive our work rather than what the algorithm dictates! That gives us some validation & provides us with feedback about what people want to read.
Revisiting the Jetstar Asia closure: Qantas & Jetstar have significantly increased Asian capacity over the last year, allowing them to bypass Singapore more (data excludes Singapore)!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
June 17, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Revisiting the Jetstar Asia closure: Qantas & Jetstar have significantly increased Asian capacity over the last year, allowing them to bypass Singapore more (data excludes Singapore)!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
Simply put: they just don't need Jetstar Asia to the same extent as they did a few years ago!
Some data to contextualise QF's new seasonal ADL-AKL (4x/week, B738, 31/10→3/5):
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
May 15, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Some data to contextualise QF's new seasonal ADL-AKL (4x/week, B738, 31/10→3/5):
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
✈️NZ returned 7/22, 3-4x/week seasonal ↑5x/week (Nov→Jan): 85% LF last 12m but capacity still ↓
✈️QR temp 5th freedom 4/22→9/23
🔴QF will add up to 6165 seats/month, clearly a gap to fill!
The net change in seats per week by cabin:
May 12, 2025 at 5:50 AM
The net change in seats per week by cabin:
Marketing guys have run amok here! How many of these connections are even viable?
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
May 6, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Marketing guys have run amok here! How many of these connections are even viable?
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
❌Westbound ALK-PER-CDG only works one day a week with an 8h connection at PER!
❌Eastbound PER-AKL-JFK also only works one day a week with an 11h connection at AKL!
💥Qantas have delayed the Brisbane and Melbourne Narita → Haneda switch to November citing "operational requirements"
🚩Concerningly, IASC kinda hid this on their website. Not listed on their "Latest Updates" & not part of the usual email distribution!
🚩Concerningly, IASC kinda hid this on their website. Not listed on their "Latest Updates" & not part of the usual email distribution!
April 8, 2025 at 5:05 AM
💥Qantas have delayed the Brisbane and Melbourne Narita → Haneda switch to November citing "operational requirements"
🚩Concerningly, IASC kinda hid this on their website. Not listed on their "Latest Updates" & not part of the usual email distribution!
🚩Concerningly, IASC kinda hid this on their website. Not listed on their "Latest Updates" & not part of the usual email distribution!
Nevertheless, capacity is still a drop in the ocean relative to UA's total Aus capacity. So it's pretty low risk relative to the bigger capacity decisions they're making in regards to SYD & MEL! /END
April 3, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Nevertheless, capacity is still a drop in the ocean relative to UA's total Aus capacity. So it's pretty low risk relative to the bigger capacity decisions they're making in regards to SYD & MEL! /END
Say what you want about the Qantas-Jetstar strategy, but one thing the Jetstar international expansion is doing is driving a less Sydney/Melbourne centric network! See examples for Brisbane & Perth:
March 26, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Say what you want about the Qantas-Jetstar strategy, but one thing the Jetstar international expansion is doing is driving a less Sydney/Melbourne centric network! See examples for Brisbane & Perth:
What might be in store from with 2800nm envelope?
🟠PER: SE Asia incl Vietnam (JQ already serve MEL/SYD-SGN), Malaysia, Cambodia; New Zealand is also intriguing!
🟠BNE: not that exciting; doesn't really open up much more
🟠A lot opens up with XLR!
🟠PER: SE Asia incl Vietnam (JQ already serve MEL/SYD-SGN), Malaysia, Cambodia; New Zealand is also intriguing!
🟠BNE: not that exciting; doesn't really open up much more
🟠A lot opens up with XLR!
March 24, 2025 at 1:52 AM
What might be in store from with 2800nm envelope?
🟠PER: SE Asia incl Vietnam (JQ already serve MEL/SYD-SGN), Malaysia, Cambodia; New Zealand is also intriguing!
🟠BNE: not that exciting; doesn't really open up much more
🟠A lot opens up with XLR!
🟠PER: SE Asia incl Vietnam (JQ already serve MEL/SYD-SGN), Malaysia, Cambodia; New Zealand is also intriguing!
🟠BNE: not that exciting; doesn't really open up much more
🟠A lot opens up with XLR!
JQ really exploring LR's range potential following launch of Perth-Bangkok last year. All these routes come in around 2800nm highlighting the max range envelop in JQ's high density config! With 6 more LRs due expect more expansion into SE Asia & more once XLRs start arriving!
March 24, 2025 at 1:52 AM
JQ really exploring LR's range potential following launch of Perth-Bangkok last year. All these routes come in around 2800nm highlighting the max range envelop in JQ's high density config! With 6 more LRs due expect more expansion into SE Asia & more once XLRs start arriving!
The same held true on westbound legs, despite the payload limits. /5
March 20, 2025 at 2:38 AM
The same held true on westbound legs, despite the payload limits. /5
So, how does it look?
🔴In 2024, A380 flights carried an average of 7.9t of cargo from MEL to LAX; B789 flights carried an average of 10.1t each!
🔴On average, B789 carried more cargo than the A380 in each month; as much as 4.3t more (in Feb 2024)! /4
🔴In 2024, A380 flights carried an average of 7.9t of cargo from MEL to LAX; B789 flights carried an average of 10.1t each!
🔴On average, B789 carried more cargo than the A380 in each month; as much as 4.3t more (in Feb 2024)! /4
March 20, 2025 at 2:38 AM
So, how does it look?
🔴In 2024, A380 flights carried an average of 7.9t of cargo from MEL to LAX; B789 flights carried an average of 10.1t each!
🔴On average, B789 carried more cargo than the A380 in each month; as much as 4.3t more (in Feb 2024)! /4
🔴In 2024, A380 flights carried an average of 7.9t of cargo from MEL to LAX; B789 flights carried an average of 10.1t each!
🔴On average, B789 carried more cargo than the A380 in each month; as much as 4.3t more (in Feb 2024)! /4
What’s immediately noticeable is that the A380 requires a lot of LD3s for bags, limiting the remainder available for cargo! Meanwhile, the other types utilise a much lower ratio of their LD3 capacity for bags! /10
March 17, 2025 at 5:26 AM
What’s immediately noticeable is that the A380 requires a lot of LD3s for bags, limiting the remainder available for cargo! Meanwhile, the other types utilise a much lower ratio of their LD3 capacity for bags! /10
But it's a touch more complicated. Not all bags go in LD3s! All widebodies have bulk space in the rear which fits some bags. This varies by type, e.g. the A330s has an unexpectedly large bulk space (19.7 m3). We need to factor this in! /8
March 17, 2025 at 5:26 AM
But it's a touch more complicated. Not all bags go in LD3s! All widebodies have bulk space in the rear which fits some bags. This varies by type, e.g. the A330s has an unexpectedly large bulk space (19.7 m3). We need to factor this in! /8
With two full decks of pax it still only has one deck for bags & cargo! This directly affects the number of positions for LD3 containers:
The A380 has space for 38x LD3s. By comparison, this is only slightly more than the B787-9 despite carrying double the passengers! /6
The A380 has space for 38x LD3s. By comparison, this is only slightly more than the B787-9 despite carrying double the passengers! /6
March 17, 2025 at 5:26 AM
With two full decks of pax it still only has one deck for bags & cargo! This directly affects the number of positions for LD3 containers:
The A380 has space for 38x LD3s. By comparison, this is only slightly more than the B787-9 despite carrying double the passengers! /6
The A380 has space for 38x LD3s. By comparison, this is only slightly more than the B787-9 despite carrying double the passengers! /6
On passenger aircraft, cargo is carried in the belly in standardised containers or pallets. Nearly all contemporary widebodies use the LD3 sized container which carries a maximum of 1.5t or 4.4m3 of cargo (whichever is reached first; most often volume is maxed before weight). /3
March 17, 2025 at 5:26 AM
On passenger aircraft, cargo is carried in the belly in standardised containers or pallets. Nearly all contemporary widebodies use the LD3 sized container which carries a maximum of 1.5t or 4.4m3 of cargo (whichever is reached first; most often volume is maxed before weight). /3