Andrew Kosenko
@andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Will eventually grow up. Perpetually confused.
Behavioral and information economics, experiments, and learning/memory. Lately, also 🇺🇦 topics
Kharkivite/New Yorker
andrewkosenko.com
Behavioral and information economics, experiments, and learning/memory. Lately, also 🇺🇦 topics
Kharkivite/New Yorker
andrewkosenko.com
Very grateful to have been interviewed by Eugenio Occorsio @larepubblica.bsky.social
www.repubblica.it/esteri/2025/...
www.repubblica.it/esteri/2025/...
Kosenko: “La misura può decidere le sorti del conflitto in Ucraina”
L’intervista all’economista: “Secondo me la pre-intesa sottoposta alla Commissione è molto buona”
www.repubblica.it
October 24, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Very grateful to have been interviewed by Eugenio Occorsio @larepubblica.bsky.social
www.repubblica.it/esteri/2025/...
www.repubblica.it/esteri/2025/...
RE: Putin's "swap" offers:
This was Gromyko's negotiating strategy:
1) Demand something that has never been yours
2) Threaten during negotiations
3) Because there will *always* be someone in the West who gives you something
And then you'll have a third, or a half, of something you have never had.
This was Gromyko's negotiating strategy:
1) Demand something that has never been yours
2) Threaten during negotiations
3) Because there will *always* be someone in the West who gives you something
And then you'll have a third, or a half, of something you have never had.
October 19, 2025 at 2:45 PM
RE: Putin's "swap" offers:
This was Gromyko's negotiating strategy:
1) Demand something that has never been yours
2) Threaten during negotiations
3) Because there will *always* be someone in the West who gives you something
And then you'll have a third, or a half, of something you have never had.
This was Gromyko's negotiating strategy:
1) Demand something that has never been yours
2) Threaten during negotiations
3) Because there will *always* be someone in the West who gives you something
And then you'll have a third, or a half, of something you have never had.
Trump's meeting with Putin in Budapest is a gift to Putin for many reasons.
Key among them is that Putin is wanted by the ICC in The Hague. Him going to Hungary will require forcing European countries not to arrest him – which then creates a precedent to disregard the ICC arrest warrant worldwide.
Key among them is that Putin is wanted by the ICC in The Hague. Him going to Hungary will require forcing European countries not to arrest him – which then creates a precedent to disregard the ICC arrest warrant worldwide.
October 16, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Trump's meeting with Putin in Budapest is a gift to Putin for many reasons.
Key among them is that Putin is wanted by the ICC in The Hague. Him going to Hungary will require forcing European countries not to arrest him – which then creates a precedent to disregard the ICC arrest warrant worldwide.
Key among them is that Putin is wanted by the ICC in The Hague. Him going to Hungary will require forcing European countries not to arrest him – which then creates a precedent to disregard the ICC arrest warrant worldwide.
Massive 🇷🇺 combined missile/drone strike on 🇺🇦 tonight.
Perhaps the *worst* strike on Kyiv and Kyiv region so far.
Russia is a terror state.
Perhaps the *worst* strike on Kyiv and Kyiv region so far.
Russia is a terror state.
September 28, 2025 at 4:26 AM
Massive 🇷🇺 combined missile/drone strike on 🇺🇦 tonight.
Perhaps the *worst* strike on Kyiv and Kyiv region so far.
Russia is a terror state.
Perhaps the *worst* strike on Kyiv and Kyiv region so far.
Russia is a terror state.
Three (3) conferences in eight (8) days.
Negative returns are real.
Negative returns are real.
September 20, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Three (3) conferences in eight (8) days.
Negative returns are real.
Negative returns are real.
Intrusion of 🇷🇺 drones into 🇵🇱 shows difficulties 🇺🇦 (recently - 800 🇷🇺 drones into 🇺🇦) is facing
>= 12 drones, 4-5 shot down. Interception rate ⬇️, using $$$ fighters, $$$ missiles (much more expensive than drones & targets, if any, themselves).
No (known) use of anti-drone drones, machine guns, or EW
>= 12 drones, 4-5 shot down. Interception rate ⬇️, using $$$ fighters, $$$ missiles (much more expensive than drones & targets, if any, themselves).
No (known) use of anti-drone drones, machine guns, or EW
September 10, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Intrusion of 🇷🇺 drones into 🇵🇱 shows difficulties 🇺🇦 (recently - 800 🇷🇺 drones into 🇺🇦) is facing
>= 12 drones, 4-5 shot down. Interception rate ⬇️, using $$$ fighters, $$$ missiles (much more expensive than drones & targets, if any, themselves).
No (known) use of anti-drone drones, machine guns, or EW
>= 12 drones, 4-5 shot down. Interception rate ⬇️, using $$$ fighters, $$$ missiles (much more expensive than drones & targets, if any, themselves).
No (known) use of anti-drone drones, machine guns, or EW
Poland and NATO will have to respond.
And while they will nearly certainly not choose an offensive military response, whatever reaction emerges has to be forceful yet nonviolent.
Seize Russia's frozen assets already.
And while they will nearly certainly not choose an offensive military response, whatever reaction emerges has to be forceful yet nonviolent.
Seize Russia's frozen assets already.
September 10, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Poland and NATO will have to respond.
And while they will nearly certainly not choose an offensive military response, whatever reaction emerges has to be forceful yet nonviolent.
Seize Russia's frozen assets already.
And while they will nearly certainly not choose an offensive military response, whatever reaction emerges has to be forceful yet nonviolent.
Seize Russia's frozen assets already.
Putin likes testing new leaders.
He tested Zelensky similarly early on. That's what the attack on Poland was probably about.
No doubt it was deliberate. Nawrocki is being tested.
He tested Zelensky similarly early on. That's what the attack on Poland was probably about.
No doubt it was deliberate. Nawrocki is being tested.
September 10, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Putin likes testing new leaders.
He tested Zelensky similarly early on. That's what the attack on Poland was probably about.
No doubt it was deliberate. Nawrocki is being tested.
He tested Zelensky similarly early on. That's what the attack on Poland was probably about.
No doubt it was deliberate. Nawrocki is being tested.
Truly bizarre article, under the rubric of "analysis"
The analyst seems to think that you need the aggressor's consent to win against him...
& similar to Obama admin's approach ("Putin cares more, so we shouldn't do anything at all")
Much analysis. Such insight.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/w...
The analyst seems to think that you need the aggressor's consent to win against him...
& similar to Obama admin's approach ("Putin cares more, so we shouldn't do anything at all")
Much analysis. Such insight.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/w...
Putin’s Message to Ukraine, Europe and Trump: I Won’t Back Down
www.nytimes.com
September 10, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Truly bizarre article, under the rubric of "analysis"
The analyst seems to think that you need the aggressor's consent to win against him...
& similar to Obama admin's approach ("Putin cares more, so we shouldn't do anything at all")
Much analysis. Such insight.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/w...
The analyst seems to think that you need the aggressor's consent to win against him...
& similar to Obama admin's approach ("Putin cares more, so we shouldn't do anything at all")
Much analysis. Such insight.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/w...
Reposted by Andrew Kosenko
The prime minister of Ukraine in the government building today. This is one floor above her office.
Today was the largest attack by Russia since …. ever: 800 drones, over a dozen missiles. Kyiv is burning.
Today was the largest attack by Russia since …. ever: 800 drones, over a dozen missiles. Kyiv is burning.
September 8, 2025 at 12:09 AM
The prime minister of Ukraine in the government building today. This is one floor above her office.
Today was the largest attack by Russia since …. ever: 800 drones, over a dozen missiles. Kyiv is burning.
Today was the largest attack by Russia since …. ever: 800 drones, over a dozen missiles. Kyiv is burning.
“The whole airport area GPS went dark"
Her plane circled for 1 hour, then landed using analogue maps.
This is an attack. Enough with the "plausible deniability" and doing nothing in response to clearly dangerous and deliberate action.
1/n
www.ft.com/content/3c33...
Her plane circled for 1 hour, then landed using analogue maps.
This is an attack. Enough with the "plausible deniability" and doing nothing in response to clearly dangerous and deliberate action.
1/n
www.ft.com/content/3c33...
Ursula von der Leyen’s plane hit by suspected Russian GPS interference
Officials suspect jamming operation forced jet carrying European Commission president to land in Bulgaria using paper maps
www.ft.com
September 1, 2025 at 2:16 PM
“The whole airport area GPS went dark"
Her plane circled for 1 hour, then landed using analogue maps.
This is an attack. Enough with the "plausible deniability" and doing nothing in response to clearly dangerous and deliberate action.
1/n
www.ft.com/content/3c33...
Her plane circled for 1 hour, then landed using analogue maps.
This is an attack. Enough with the "plausible deniability" and doing nothing in response to clearly dangerous and deliberate action.
1/n
www.ft.com/content/3c33...
To finally, decisively end 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 we need
1) deoccupation of all occupied 🇺🇦 territory
2) reparations for the unthinkable destruction & the damage wrought on an entire generation
3) Nuremberg-style tribunal for 🇷🇺 war criminals
Instead, Trump has lowered the bar to *A MEETING*
1) deoccupation of all occupied 🇺🇦 territory
2) reparations for the unthinkable destruction & the damage wrought on an entire generation
3) Nuremberg-style tribunal for 🇷🇺 war criminals
Instead, Trump has lowered the bar to *A MEETING*
August 30, 2025 at 4:44 PM
To finally, decisively end 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 we need
1) deoccupation of all occupied 🇺🇦 territory
2) reparations for the unthinkable destruction & the damage wrought on an entire generation
3) Nuremberg-style tribunal for 🇷🇺 war criminals
Instead, Trump has lowered the bar to *A MEETING*
1) deoccupation of all occupied 🇺🇦 territory
2) reparations for the unthinkable destruction & the damage wrought on an entire generation
3) Nuremberg-style tribunal for 🇷🇺 war criminals
Instead, Trump has lowered the bar to *A MEETING*
"Tom Clancy's The Idiot"
Ruin a book by adding “Tom Clancy’s” to the title
“Tom Clancy’s Juggs”
“Tom Clancy’s Juggs”
Ruin a book by adding “Tom Clancy’s” to the title
Tom Clancy’s Unbearable Lightness of Being
Tom Clancy’s Unbearable Lightness of Being
August 28, 2025 at 2:08 AM
"Tom Clancy's The Idiot"
Signed.
Please share!
Please share!
Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process.
There's still time to sign! And please share.
#EconSky
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
There's still time to sign! And please share.
#EconSky
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Open letter
Click here to add your signature. An Open Letter from Economists in Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence To the President, Members of Congress, and the American public: We wr...
docs.google.com
August 28, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Signed.
Please share!
Please share!
Prosecutors Fail to Secure Indictment Against Man Who Threw Sandwich at Federal Agent
www.nytimes.com
August 27, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Have just unironically used the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem for the first time (i.e. outside of a class, and not when reading other people's papers)
Math is magic
Math is magic
August 15, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Have just unironically used the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem for the first time (i.e. outside of a class, and not when reading other people's papers)
Math is magic
Math is magic
FFS
Dubya looked Putin in the eye, and saw his soul.
Obama had the "reset"
Trump 1 was all over him
Biden showed a lot of backbone (but provided only enough wapons for 🇺🇦 not to lose, not enough to win. And didn't seize 🇷🇺 assets)
Trump 2 is still dancing with him
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Dubya looked Putin in the eye, and saw his soul.
Obama had the "reset"
Trump 1 was all over him
Biden showed a lot of backbone (but provided only enough wapons for 🇺🇦 not to lose, not enough to win. And didn't seize 🇷🇺 assets)
Trump 2 is still dancing with him
www.state.gov/releases/202...
August 13, 2025 at 3:46 PM
FFS
Dubya looked Putin in the eye, and saw his soul.
Obama had the "reset"
Trump 1 was all over him
Biden showed a lot of backbone (but provided only enough wapons for 🇺🇦 not to lose, not enough to win. And didn't seize 🇷🇺 assets)
Trump 2 is still dancing with him
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Dubya looked Putin in the eye, and saw his soul.
Obama had the "reset"
Trump 1 was all over him
Biden showed a lot of backbone (but provided only enough wapons for 🇺🇦 not to lose, not enough to win. And didn't seize 🇷🇺 assets)
Trump 2 is still dancing with him
www.state.gov/releases/202...
Reposted by Andrew Kosenko
How many times does this have to happen for an American president to realize the gravity of the threat to 🇺🇸 from Russia?
Instead of pretending it's not there so that they don't have to deal with it.
Perhaps something to start convo with Putin in Alaska.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
Instead of pretending it's not there so that they don't have to deal with it.
Perhaps something to start convo with Putin in Alaska.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
Russia Is Suspected to Be Behind Breach of Federal Court Filing System
www.nytimes.com
August 12, 2025 at 11:23 PM
How many times does this have to happen for an American president to realize the gravity of the threat to 🇺🇸 from Russia?
Instead of pretending it's not there so that they don't have to deal with it.
Perhaps something to start convo with Putin in Alaska.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
Instead of pretending it's not there so that they don't have to deal with it.
Perhaps something to start convo with Putin in Alaska.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
Major "peace in our time" vibes
August 9, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Major "peace in our time" vibes
Zelensky is already being cast as recalcitrant, uncompromising. Putin's exploitation of Trump's desire for any deal is working.
And... "land swap"?!? 🇺🇦 land for... (getting to keep) other 🇺🇦 land?!
Gee, what a swap.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
And... "land swap"?!? 🇺🇦 land for... (getting to keep) other 🇺🇦 land?!
Gee, what a swap.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
Zelensky Rejects Ceding Territory to Russia After Trump Suggests a Land Swap
www.nytimes.com
August 9, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Zelensky is already being cast as recalcitrant, uncompromising. Putin's exploitation of Trump's desire for any deal is working.
And... "land swap"?!? 🇺🇦 land for... (getting to keep) other 🇺🇦 land?!
Gee, what a swap.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
And... "land swap"?!? 🇺🇦 land for... (getting to keep) other 🇺🇦 land?!
Gee, what a swap.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
Trump & Putin meeting in Alaska on 8/15
Apparently, without Zelensky. Potential catastrophe.
Putin will present an (unacceptable) document for Zelensky to sign. Trump will go with it. After meeting, pressure will be on Z to sign it - which he will refuse to do, thus look as if he's uncompromising
Apparently, without Zelensky. Potential catastrophe.
Putin will present an (unacceptable) document for Zelensky to sign. Trump will go with it. After meeting, pressure will be on Z to sign it - which he will refuse to do, thus look as if he's uncompromising
August 8, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Trump & Putin meeting in Alaska on 8/15
Apparently, without Zelensky. Potential catastrophe.
Putin will present an (unacceptable) document for Zelensky to sign. Trump will go with it. After meeting, pressure will be on Z to sign it - which he will refuse to do, thus look as if he's uncompromising
Apparently, without Zelensky. Potential catastrophe.
Putin will present an (unacceptable) document for Zelensky to sign. Trump will go with it. After meeting, pressure will be on Z to sign it - which he will refuse to do, thus look as if he's uncompromising
Reposting, from 4 months ago.
Trump's announced convo with Putin is ominous.
Remember:
1) Nothing about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦, and
2) What does Russia give up?
Remember:
1) Nothing about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦, and
2) What does Russia give up?
August 8, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Reposting, from 4 months ago.
Putin - and Russia generally - *frequently* break agreements.
Putin's aim - capitulation of Kyiv - has not changed.
This is a ploy to buy time/sanctions relief/avoid new mil aid to 🇺🇦
Trump wants a deal, Putin is giving him an empty one in which 🇷🇺 loses nothing.
www.wsj.com/world/putin-...
Putin's aim - capitulation of Kyiv - has not changed.
This is a ploy to buy time/sanctions relief/avoid new mil aid to 🇺🇦
Trump wants a deal, Putin is giving him an empty one in which 🇷🇺 loses nothing.
www.wsj.com/world/putin-...
Putin Tells U.S. He’ll Halt War in Exchange for Eastern Ukraine
The proposal prompted the Trump administration to begin preparing for a summit with the Russian leader, but European officials expressed skepticism over its viability.
www.wsj.com
August 8, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Putin - and Russia generally - *frequently* break agreements.
Putin's aim - capitulation of Kyiv - has not changed.
This is a ploy to buy time/sanctions relief/avoid new mil aid to 🇺🇦
Trump wants a deal, Putin is giving him an empty one in which 🇷🇺 loses nothing.
www.wsj.com/world/putin-...
Putin's aim - capitulation of Kyiv - has not changed.
This is a ploy to buy time/sanctions relief/avoid new mil aid to 🇺🇦
Trump wants a deal, Putin is giving him an empty one in which 🇷🇺 loses nothing.
www.wsj.com/world/putin-...