Aurélien Allard
@aurelienallard.bsky.social
Philosopher and Social Psychologist. Assistant professor at Nantes University. Studying justice, morality, replicability and open science. Personal website: https://aurelienallard.netlify.app/
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Inhibiting and facilitating conditions of the h̶u̶m̶a̶n̶ smile: a n̶o̶n̶obtrusive test of the facial feedback hypothesis (Strack et al., 1988)
November 26, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Inhibiting and facilitating conditions of the h̶u̶m̶a̶n̶ smile: a n̶o̶n̶obtrusive test of the facial feedback hypothesis (Strack et al., 1988)
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Happy to share our latest study published in PNAS.
Using data from 274,316 French students, we find that lower-SES students are less likely to wait for better university offers, even when waiting would lead to more prestigious or better-fit programs.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Using data from 274,316 French students, we find that lower-SES students are less likely to wait for better university offers, even when waiting would lead to more prestigious or better-fit programs.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Waiting time during admission procedures increases social inequalities in higher education | PNAS
Many domains in life require people to wait to access better outcomes, such as waiting
in line to access prized tickets for a show, waiting to obta...
www.pnas.org
November 26, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Happy to share our latest study published in PNAS.
Using data from 274,316 French students, we find that lower-SES students are less likely to wait for better university offers, even when waiting would lead to more prestigious or better-fit programs.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Using data from 274,316 French students, we find that lower-SES students are less likely to wait for better university offers, even when waiting would lead to more prestigious or better-fit programs.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Experimental participants to us
November 12, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Experimental participants to us
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Wow- the world has changed. Such a job exists. #metascience
Job opportunity — Junior Professorship in Psychological Metascience @zpid.bsky.social leibniz-psychology.onlyfy.jobs/job/10kku5n7 h/t @bethclarke.bsky.social
November 26, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Wow- the world has changed. Such a job exists. #metascience
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Nearly-perfect printed and handwritten text recognition is the most consequential technical contribution to the study of human culture of the last fifteen years, and it's not even close.
It fundamentally changes our (both lay and expert) relationship with the written past.
It fundamentally changes our (both lay and expert) relationship with the written past.
New issue of my newsletter: "The Writing Is on the Wall for Handwriting Recognition" — One of the hardest problems in digital humanities has finally been solved, and it's a good use of AI newsletter.dancohen.org/archive/the-...
The Writing Is on the Wall for Handwriting Recognition
One of the hardest problems in digital humanities has finally been solved
newsletter.dancohen.org
November 25, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Nearly-perfect printed and handwritten text recognition is the most consequential technical contribution to the study of human culture of the last fifteen years, and it's not even close.
It fundamentally changes our (both lay and expert) relationship with the written past.
It fundamentally changes our (both lay and expert) relationship with the written past.
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Berlioz is an inspiration to all of us who aspire to take reasonable ideas to their unreasonable extremes.
November 25, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Berlioz is an inspiration to all of us who aspire to take reasonable ideas to their unreasonable extremes.
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
this is one of my favourite observations about sample size calculations. (afaik first articulated by Miettinen in 1985)
November 25, 2025 at 10:56 AM
this is one of my favourite observations about sample size calculations. (afaik first articulated by Miettinen in 1985)
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Paul Ekman died last week - I found out via @hillaryanger.bsky.social on FB. Surprised there's no NYT or WashPo obit.
I took a class with him and he was friends/coauthors with my friend's mom. Hugely impactful on the field. Too much to say in a skeet.
www.paulekman.com/blog/the-pas...
I took a class with him and he was friends/coauthors with my friend's mom. Hugely impactful on the field. Too much to say in a skeet.
www.paulekman.com/blog/the-pas...
The Passing of Dr. Paul Ekman
Dr. Paul Ekman, pioneer of emotion science and creator of FACS, has passed away at 91. Read his memorial and share reflections on his life and legacy.
www.paulekman.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Paul Ekman died last week - I found out via @hillaryanger.bsky.social on FB. Surprised there's no NYT or WashPo obit.
I took a class with him and he was friends/coauthors with my friend's mom. Hugely impactful on the field. Too much to say in a skeet.
www.paulekman.com/blog/the-pas...
I took a class with him and he was friends/coauthors with my friend's mom. Hugely impactful on the field. Too much to say in a skeet.
www.paulekman.com/blog/the-pas...
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
First result: forecasters tend to overestimate treatment effects - but there is a lot of signal in the forecasts made.
This means that forecasts can be informative in power calculations or determining which interventions to trial.
This means that forecasts can be informative in power calculations or determining which interventions to trial.
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
First result: forecasters tend to overestimate treatment effects - but there is a lot of signal in the forecasts made.
This means that forecasts can be informative in power calculations or determining which interventions to trial.
This means that forecasts can be informative in power calculations or determining which interventions to trial.
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
There is no reason why systematic reviews can't be open. The data used for synthesis is *already* open and there are many excellent open source tools that can facilitate the easy sharing of analysis scripts.
Here's a nice guide for performing open systematic reviews doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here's a nice guide for performing open systematic reviews doi.org/10.1525/coll...
November 24, 2025 at 12:10 PM
There is no reason why systematic reviews can't be open. The data used for synthesis is *already* open and there are many excellent open source tools that can facilitate the easy sharing of analysis scripts.
Here's a nice guide for performing open systematic reviews doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here's a nice guide for performing open systematic reviews doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
To me this is a great example of the need to define the estimand of interest. Correlation of.03 is an estimate of the ATE, and as such is a small effect. The estimate for the CATE (ATE conditional on some measure of risk of heart attack) would be bigger (and as a result it'd have a big effect size).
Most scientists don't understand how effect sizes work and are therefore far too quick to dismiss "small" effects.
A correlation of .03 between taking aspirin & prevention of future heart attacks implied the prevention of 85 attacks in a sample of 10,845 people
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
A correlation of .03 between taking aspirin & prevention of future heart attacks implied the prevention of 85 attacks in a sample of 10,845 people
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
November 24, 2025 at 1:28 PM
To me this is a great example of the need to define the estimand of interest. Correlation of.03 is an estimate of the ATE, and as such is a small effect. The estimate for the CATE (ATE conditional on some measure of risk of heart attack) would be bigger (and as a result it'd have a big effect size).
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
And just because I more often see people using the Aspirin example: They used the wrong effect size and that is why the effect seems to small.
November 23, 2025 at 7:20 PM
And just because I more often see people using the Aspirin example: They used the wrong effect size and that is why the effect seems to small.
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
I think it's hard to overstate how much Simine has changed research practices and standards in psychology for the better, despite at times massive resistance from powerful parties with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Very well deserved award imho 🥳
Congratulations to @simine.com well deserved winner of the Einstein Foundation Individual Award for Promoting Quality in Research 2025 🎉 www.einsteinfoundation.de/en/media/pre...
November 24, 2025 at 11:03 AM
I think it's hard to overstate how much Simine has changed research practices and standards in psychology for the better, despite at times massive resistance from powerful parties with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Very well deserved award imho 🥳
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Congratulations to the Brazilian Reproducibility Initiative -- a remarkable effort by a remarkable team. This is a wonderful acknowledgement of an incredible contribution to assessing and improving research quality.
🏆 Institutional: The Brazilian Reproducibility Initiative is a nationwide effort to evaluate research results in laboratory biology & the largest coordinated replication effort in the field worldwide, showcasing the potential of country-level research improvements. @redebrrepro.bsky.social (3/5)
November 24, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Congratulations to the Brazilian Reproducibility Initiative -- a remarkable effort by a remarkable team. This is a wonderful acknowledgement of an incredible contribution to assessing and improving research quality.
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
🏆 Individual: @simine.com, psychologist at @unimelb.bsky.social & editor-in-chief of Psychological Science, is recognized for pioneering methodological rigor, reproducibility & collaborative research, driving initiatives such as @improvingpsych.org & the journal Collabra @ucpress.bsky.social. (2/5)
November 24, 2025 at 10:00 AM
🏆 Individual: @simine.com, psychologist at @unimelb.bsky.social & editor-in-chief of Psychological Science, is recognized for pioneering methodological rigor, reproducibility & collaborative research, driving initiatives such as @improvingpsych.org & the journal Collabra @ucpress.bsky.social. (2/5)
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Empirically, more extensive project descriptions do not affect the eventual decision anyway:
"We find that withholding proposal texts from panelists did not
detectibly impact their proposal rankings."
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
"We find that withholding proposal texts from panelists did not
detectibly impact their proposal rankings."
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Do grant proposal texts matter for funding decisions? A field experiment - Scientometrics
Scientists and funding agencies invest considerable resources in writing and evaluating grant proposals. But do grant proposal texts noticeably change panel decisions in single blind review? We report...
link.springer.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Empirically, more extensive project descriptions do not affect the eventual decision anyway:
"We find that withholding proposal texts from panelists did not
detectibly impact their proposal rankings."
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
"We find that withholding proposal texts from panelists did not
detectibly impact their proposal rankings."
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Exactly. And it’s this very norm that we’re against. Complexity for complexities sake. The “nuance is always good”. No it’s not. The incremental insights need to outweigh the added complexity. And often the reported complexity is just empirical noise.
November 21, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Exactly. And it’s this very norm that we’re against. Complexity for complexities sake. The “nuance is always good”. No it’s not. The incremental insights need to outweigh the added complexity. And often the reported complexity is just empirical noise.
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Perhaps the most influential table in hunter-gatherer studies, published in Lee's chapter in the famous 1968 edited volume by Lee and DeVore titled, ironically, Man the Hunter 🧪 #BioAnth
November 21, 2025 at 12:58 AM
Perhaps the most influential table in hunter-gatherer studies, published in Lee's chapter in the famous 1968 edited volume by Lee and DeVore titled, ironically, Man the Hunter 🧪 #BioAnth
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
One of my favourite charts (my only contribution was the annotation)
Now this is how you detect whether an election was stolen. Humans choose rounder numbers.
by @TheEconomist
by @TheEconomist
November 6, 2025 at 3:37 PM
One of my favourite charts (my only contribution was the annotation)
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
I read the caption first and thought the illusion might be because the y-axis was on a log scale, but it's not!
My brain was bamboozled regardless.
My brain was bamboozled regardless.
November 19, 2025 at 12:15 PM
I read the caption first and thought the illusion might be because the y-axis was on a log scale, but it's not!
My brain was bamboozled regardless.
My brain was bamboozled regardless.
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
If you talk about philosophy of science in interpretability papers you get to learn some incredible facts about what can go wrong with simple causal ablation studies
November 18, 2025 at 11:54 PM
If you talk about philosophy of science in interpretability papers you get to learn some incredible facts about what can go wrong with simple causal ablation studies
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
This post highlights how far behind the OSF is in usability and speed. The ResearchBox UI does seem clean, but why not use Zenodo directly (RB archives to Zenodo anyway.)
[130] Researchbox: Even easier to use than before. More transparently permanent.
datacolada.org/130
datacolada.org/130
[130] ResearchBox: Even Easier to Use and More Transparently Permanent than Before - Data Colada
Over the past 10 years or so, posting data, code, and materials for published papers has gone from eccentric to mundane. There are a few platforms that enable sharing research files, including Researc...
datacolada.org
November 19, 2025 at 8:14 AM
This post highlights how far behind the OSF is in usability and speed. The ResearchBox UI does seem clean, but why not use Zenodo directly (RB archives to Zenodo anyway.)
Reposted by Aurélien Allard
