Cameron Patrick
@cameronpat.bsky.social
biostatistician @ University of Melbourne Statistical Consulting Centre. enjoyer of multiple imputation, RCTs, and DAGs. always graph your data. also runs, bikes, hikes, etc. he/him #BiInSci 🏳️🌈
https://cameronpatrick.com/
https://cameronpatrick.com/
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
At no point in the below post did I ever feel prepared for what came next
Well, if it’s 8 February, it must be the 94th anniversary of Geoffrey Potocki de Montalk (a fascist from New Zealand who said he was King of Poland) going on trial for attempting to get into print his poem ‘Here Lies John Penis’ 🧵
February 8, 2026 at 1:01 PM
At no point in the below post did I ever feel prepared for what came next
Australia is a typical, developed democracy. Elections take place in an environment where the general public have a range of political parties to choose from, operating in a pluralistic media landscape, with totally free, secret ballots, after which the Liberals lose.
Canada is a typical, developed democracy. Elections take place in an environment where the general public have a range of political parties to choose from, operating in a pluralistic media landscape, with totally free, secret ballots, after which the Liberals win.
Japan is a typical, developed democracy. Elections take place in an environment where the general public have a range of political parties to choose from, operating in a pluralistic media landscape, with totally free, secret ballots, after which the LDP win.
February 8, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Australia is a typical, developed democracy. Elections take place in an environment where the general public have a range of political parties to choose from, operating in a pluralistic media landscape, with totally free, secret ballots, after which the Liberals lose.
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
Gentle reminder that Jimmy Carter once negotiated a ceasefire during the second Sudanese civil war to help eradicate Guinea worm disease 🫡
February 4, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Gentle reminder that Jimmy Carter once negotiated a ceasefire during the second Sudanese civil war to help eradicate Guinea worm disease 🫡
Karlach in Baldurs Gate 3 has big New Zealander energy. I will not be taking questions on this matter
February 8, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Karlach in Baldurs Gate 3 has big New Zealander energy. I will not be taking questions on this matter
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
Without naming your job, tell me something you say over and over again at work.
1️⃣"What is your research question?"
2️⃣"What do YOU think is going on?"
1️⃣"What is your research question?"
2️⃣"What do YOU think is going on?"
"Without naming your job, tell me something you say over and over again at work."
"It's due Sunday at 11:59 PM"
"It's due Sunday at 11:59 PM"
Without naming your job, tell me something you say over and over again at work.
"Where are your citations?"
"Where are your citations?"
February 7, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Without naming your job, tell me something you say over and over again at work.
1️⃣"What is your research question?"
2️⃣"What do YOU think is going on?"
1️⃣"What is your research question?"
2️⃣"What do YOU think is going on?"
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
social media is an mmo that happens to sometimes pay out in realworld influence and one of the important factors for success is how many NEETs and schizophrenics your faction commands, like cavalry and archers
February 8, 2026 at 4:20 AM
social media is an mmo that happens to sometimes pay out in realworld influence and one of the important factors for success is how many NEETs and schizophrenics your faction commands, like cavalry and archers
at some point there will be a wave of nostalgia for hipster era culture, and I would like it to be known that I liked hipsters before it was cool
February 8, 2026 at 11:40 AM
at some point there will be a wave of nostalgia for hipster era culture, and I would like it to be known that I liked hipsters before it was cool
incredible, this is basically the "I was at the moderate centrists rally chanting 'better things aren't possible' " meme, but irl and apparently non-ironic
(I, too, believe that we should keep billionaires in California though. then build a wall around California to stop them leaving)
(I, too, believe that we should keep billionaires in California though. then build a wall around California to stop them leaving)
February 8, 2026 at 8:50 AM
incredible, this is basically the "I was at the moderate centrists rally chanting 'better things aren't possible' " meme, but irl and apparently non-ironic
(I, too, believe that we should keep billionaires in California though. then build a wall around California to stop them leaving)
(I, too, believe that we should keep billionaires in California though. then build a wall around California to stop them leaving)
found Tony Abbott's alt
Can we normalize eating a raw onion like an apple?
February 8, 2026 at 8:34 AM
found Tony Abbott's alt
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
oooooooof
February 8, 2026 at 3:41 AM
oooooooof
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
Uh oh, you scrolled too far, too greedily, too deep: you have encountered a balrog.
November 12, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Uh oh, you scrolled too far, too greedily, too deep: you have encountered a balrog.
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
As far as short-term options, I am increasingly convinced that peer review requests should be transparently reported (both accepts and declines). I also like the idea of scientists agreeing to review at least one paper for every one they submit to a given journal.
February 6, 2026 at 11:48 PM
As far as short-term options, I am increasingly convinced that peer review requests should be transparently reported (both accepts and declines). I also like the idea of scientists agreeing to review at least one paper for every one they submit to a given journal.
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
maybe my favorite all time correlation
February 6, 2026 at 5:47 PM
maybe my favorite all time correlation
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
*cries in medical statistician*
Sometimes I hear, "we need to frame our research as associational otherwise the MDs reading it will not interpret it correctly."
It took me a while to realize how bonkers this is. It's saying some important primary users of the knowledge created are unable to understand what they're reading.
It took me a while to realize how bonkers this is. It's saying some important primary users of the knowledge created are unable to understand what they're reading.
February 6, 2026 at 11:55 AM
*cries in medical statistician*
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
Many years I ago I read (sorry) that when Queensland mandated helmets, cycle use halved. It saved 2 or 3 TBIs a year and probably caused 100x that loss of QALYs (or whatever the measure is) due to increased use of sedentary modes of transport.
February 6, 2026 at 10:16 AM
Many years I ago I read (sorry) that when Queensland mandated helmets, cycle use halved. It saved 2 or 3 TBIs a year and probably caused 100x that loss of QALYs (or whatever the measure is) due to increased use of sedentary modes of transport.
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
An example of how impacts of interventions can differ at individual and population levels, and are conditional on other events. Given a car hits you, the helmet helps. But mandating helmets could lower the # of bikes on the road & thus might increase the chance of getting hit in the first place.
This is counter-intuitive:
"It is clear that the benefits of cycling outweigh the risks, with helmet legislation actually costing society more from lost health gains than saved from injury prevention." theconversation.com/ditching-bik...
"It is clear that the benefits of cycling outweigh the risks, with helmet legislation actually costing society more from lost health gains than saved from injury prevention." theconversation.com/ditching-bik...
Ditching bike helmets laws better for health
With epidemics of diabetes and obesity threatening to bankrupt state health budgets, governments need to broaden their strategies to encourage physical activity. Allowing cyclists to ride without a he...
theconversation.com
February 5, 2026 at 2:55 PM
An example of how impacts of interventions can differ at individual and population levels, and are conditional on other events. Given a car hits you, the helmet helps. But mandating helmets could lower the # of bikes on the road & thus might increase the chance of getting hit in the first place.
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
Is AI killing publishing reform? Important post by Ulrike Hahn about #scholarlyPublishing. (write.as/ulrikehahn/i...)
I've had the same thought, that the flood of LLM-written junk and fraudulent manuscripts being submitted to journals means that
I've had the same thought, that the flood of LLM-written junk and fraudulent manuscripts being submitted to journals means that
Is AI killing scientific reform?
Recently I tried to post a pre-print on arXiv about what might be going wrong in debate about reasoning in LLMs. arXiv seemed a relevant ...
write.as
February 6, 2026 at 9:51 AM
Is AI killing publishing reform? Important post by Ulrike Hahn about #scholarlyPublishing. (write.as/ulrikehahn/i...)
I've had the same thought, that the flood of LLM-written junk and fraudulent manuscripts being submitted to journals means that
I've had the same thought, that the flood of LLM-written junk and fraudulent manuscripts being submitted to journals means that
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
IMO it's hard to find any part of the broader left as utterly discredited by the events of the last two decades as the anti-trade, anti-globalisation set. Just fundamentally wrong about absolutely everything, and in a way that opened the door wide for the far right to come charging through.
It was missing the point to suggest the objection to globalisation was about things like jobs or wages or living standards which is why the anti globalisation people talked exclusively about those things and got them entirely wrong
February 5, 2026 at 9:19 PM
IMO it's hard to find any part of the broader left as utterly discredited by the events of the last two decades as the anti-trade, anti-globalisation set. Just fundamentally wrong about absolutely everything, and in a way that opened the door wide for the far right to come charging through.
big oof!
Newsletter up. Rant incoming.
Pop sci mostly reaches educated, left-leaning, wealthy readers — including, of course, scientists and science writers.
I increasingly believe the gap between the real general audience and what's called "general audience" in scicomm is huge and worth talking about: 🧪
Pop sci mostly reaches educated, left-leaning, wealthy readers — including, of course, scientists and science writers.
I increasingly believe the gap between the real general audience and what's called "general audience" in scicomm is huge and worth talking about: 🧪
Pop science doesn't reach a "general audience"
Pop sci readers are wealthy, educated, and left-leaning
www.reviewertoo.com
February 6, 2026 at 6:51 AM
big oof!
Woke 2.0: this time we are not, in fact, joking
I think "woke" was at least partly identified with "irritating" and the way we're rectifying that in Woke 2 is by being scary instead
February 6, 2026 at 5:31 AM
Woke 2.0: this time we are not, in fact, joking
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
i swear to god i do not want to have to consider it possible that jeffrey epstein personally caused the 2008 financial crisis
February 6, 2026 at 1:35 AM
i swear to god i do not want to have to consider it possible that jeffrey epstein personally caused the 2008 financial crisis
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
getting permabanned from research dot gov for turning in a 5-page Background section explaining that the effect estimates from a one-way ANOVA are in fact a model and therefore an algorithm and therefore Artificial Intelligence
February 6, 2026 at 12:06 AM
getting permabanned from research dot gov for turning in a 5-page Background section explaining that the effect estimates from a one-way ANOVA are in fact a model and therefore an algorithm and therefore Artificial Intelligence
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
I feel like this is a great time to remind everyone that it's not even technically wrong to say that logistic regression is machine learning
Dawg are you fucking kidding me bsky.app/profile/horm...
February 6, 2026 at 12:02 AM
I feel like this is a great time to remind everyone that it's not even technically wrong to say that logistic regression is machine learning
Reposted by Cameron Patrick
#TodayinHistory #dataviz #Onthisday #OTD 📊
📅Feb 5, 1772 Pierre Simon Laplace presented his first probability memoir to the Acadmie des Sciences
1810: Proof of the central limit theorem-- why sums of variables tend to be close to the normal
📅Feb 5, 1772 Pierre Simon Laplace presented his first probability memoir to the Acadmie des Sciences
1810: Proof of the central limit theorem-- why sums of variables tend to be close to the normal
February 6, 2026 at 2:13 AM
#TodayinHistory #dataviz #Onthisday #OTD 📊
📅Feb 5, 1772 Pierre Simon Laplace presented his first probability memoir to the Acadmie des Sciences
1810: Proof of the central limit theorem-- why sums of variables tend to be close to the normal
📅Feb 5, 1772 Pierre Simon Laplace presented his first probability memoir to the Acadmie des Sciences
1810: Proof of the central limit theorem-- why sums of variables tend to be close to the normal
who else remember the Australian federal election that was Hawke vs Peacock for PM?
February 5, 2026 at 1:44 AM
who else remember the Australian federal election that was Hawke vs Peacock for PM?