Ben Brindle
@benbrindle.bsky.social
Researcher at the Migration Observatory, University of Oxford. #itfc fan, for my sins.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
🔃 "For public policy reasons and Treasury planning, it would be much better if we knew something about these citizen-emigrants."
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
Who is emigrating from the UK? - UK in a changing Europe
John Mahon makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving the UK. He argues that the cost to the state of British nationals leaving or returning to the UK varies, so...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 26, 2025 at 3:48 PM
🔃 "For public policy reasons and Treasury planning, it would be much better if we knew something about these citizen-emigrants."
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
✍️ @jsm27.bsky.social makes the case for having a better understanding of the British nationals leaving and returning to the UK
ukandeu.ac.uk/who-is-emigr...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
International student levy on British universities confirmed in Budget 2025 documents www.gov.uk/government/p...
November 26, 2025 at 2:17 PM
International student levy on British universities confirmed in Budget 2025 documents www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
somehow this too is about the budget
November 25, 2025 at 3:37 PM
somehow this too is about the budget
The qualifying period to settlement will be increased to a baseline of 10 years.
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
November 20, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The qualifying period to settlement will be increased to a baseline of 10 years.
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The UK government's proposals on changes to settlement (indefinite leave to remain) rules have now been published in a consultation paper, ahead of a statement from the Home Secretary to MPs shortly www.gov.uk/government/c...
Earned settlement
The government is consulting on how the current settlement system should be reformed and how those reforms should be implemented.
www.gov.uk
November 20, 2025 at 12:46 PM
The UK government's proposals on changes to settlement (indefinite leave to remain) rules have now been published in a consultation paper, ahead of a statement from the Home Secretary to MPs shortly www.gov.uk/government/c...
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In the 2010s, net migration was around 250k to 350k each year. Under today's revised estimates, net migration in 2024 (345k) was a lot closer to pre-Brexit levels, although still at the higher end.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
Revised estimates from the ONS suggest that net migration reached a peak of 944,000 in 2023 (rather than 906,000) and fell faster in 2024, to 345,000 (not 431,000).
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
November 18, 2025 at 3:53 PM
In the 2010s, net migration was around 250k to 350k each year. Under today's revised estimates, net migration in 2024 (345k) was a lot closer to pre-Brexit levels, although still at the higher end.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
But a further fall is likely in next week's migration stats, for the year ending June 2025.
At the moment, asylum seekers can work if they've been waiting more than 12 months for their claim to be processed, but only in middle-skill or graduate level jobs in shortage
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
November 16, 2025 at 12:23 PM
At the moment, asylum seekers can work if they've been waiting more than 12 months for their claim to be processed, but only in middle-skill or graduate level jobs in shortage
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
Presumably at least one of those things will have to change if the expectation is more will have to take up work
We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
How many migrants in the UK have settlement? - Migration Observatory
This commentary estimates the number of non-EU citizens who currently have settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 4:28 PM
We estimate the number of non-EU citizens with ILR is likely to be between 620k and 820k
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
More details on how we reached those figures in the commentary
Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors
November 6, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Phenomenal series. Phenomenal finale #celebritytraitors
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
JUST PUBLISHED
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy? - Economics Observatory
Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public…
buff.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
JUST PUBLISHED
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy?
By @benbrindle.bsky.social, @migobs.bsky.social
How might the UK’s new approach to migration affect the economy? - Economics Observatory
Net migration in the UK reached historic highs following the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system. While this is likely to have only minor effects on the labour market and public…
buff.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The government has said that sectors requesting high numbers of work visas will be required to implement workforce training plans, but how will that work in practice?
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
I discuss how the policy could be implemented in this piece for the Economics Observatory.
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
October 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
October 9, 2025 at 10:40 AM
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations.
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
October 4, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations.
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Do you have a lot of annoying admin tasks or household chores you need to accomplish, but never seem to find the time for? Then may I suggest: setting aside a day to do nothing but write, you will be amazed at how many such tasks you can accomplish.
September 18, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Do you have a lot of annoying admin tasks or household chores you need to accomplish, but never seem to find the time for? Then may I suggest: setting aside a day to do nothing but write, you will be amazed at how many such tasks you can accomplish.
Reposted by Ben Brindle
Good question at Home Office questions from @lisasmartmp.bsky.social on the move-on period for refugees, after the part suspension of the pilot giving 56 days instead of 28. The Home Secretary said they were following the evidence of what works - but the evaluation of the pilot is still underway.
September 15, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Good question at Home Office questions from @lisasmartmp.bsky.social on the move-on period for refugees, after the part suspension of the pilot giving 56 days instead of 28. The Home Secretary said they were following the evidence of what works - but the evaluation of the pilot is still underway.
@mark-heath.bsky.social @alexnljones.bsky.social The listeners have decided – Heineken is poor, but then so is Corona
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
September 12, 2025 at 8:56 AM
@mark-heath.bsky.social @alexnljones.bsky.social The listeners have decided – Heineken is poor, but then so is Corona
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
Get some IPAs in the rotation!
Reposted by Ben Brindle
The government has announced key changes to its refugee family reunion policy. Our Q&A explains what’s changed, who’s affected, the possible consequences, and how the UK compares with other countries in Europe. Read more 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Q&A: The UK’s new approach to refugee family reunion - Migration Observatory
This Q&A answers some common questions on the UK’s new approach to refugee family reunion.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
September 9, 2025 at 9:44 AM
The government has announced key changes to its refugee family reunion policy. Our Q&A explains what’s changed, who’s affected, the possible consequences, and how the UK compares with other countries in Europe. Read more 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read.
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
September 5, 2025 at 12:46 PM
I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read.
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
Terrible news. I'd never say this to his face, but Melvyn's dulcet tones have helped me get off to sleep more times than I can count
Melvyn Bragg has decided to stand down as host of In Our Time, the BBC says.
September 3, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Terrible news. I'd never say this to his face, but Melvyn's dulcet tones have helped me get off to sleep more times than I can count
Reposted by Ben Brindle
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
August 19, 2025 at 7:44 AM
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.