Ben Brindle
@benbrindle.bsky.social
Researcher at the Migration Observatory, University of Oxford. #itfc fan, for my sins.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.
It also prioritises Skilled Workers who earn less, and so make a smaller contribution to the public finances.
For example, a librarian earning £41,700 would be prioritised over an IT director earning £85,000.
For example, a librarian earning £41,700 would be prioritised over an IT director earning £85,000.
December 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM
It also prioritises Skilled Workers who earn less, and so make a smaller contribution to the public finances.
For example, a librarian earning £41,700 would be prioritised over an IT director earning £85,000.
For example, a librarian earning £41,700 would be prioritised over an IT director earning £85,000.
Employers in areas with lower salaries are less likely to be able to afford the median.
Grads/young migrants at the start of their careers also find it difficult to be hired at median earnings. The UK has a 'new entrant discount' (currently 4 years), but it takes them longer to earn the median.
Grads/young migrants at the start of their careers also find it difficult to be hired at median earnings. The UK has a 'new entrant discount' (currently 4 years), but it takes them longer to earn the median.
December 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Employers in areas with lower salaries are less likely to be able to afford the median.
Grads/young migrants at the start of their careers also find it difficult to be hired at median earnings. The UK has a 'new entrant discount' (currently 4 years), but it takes them longer to earn the median.
Grads/young migrants at the start of their careers also find it difficult to be hired at median earnings. The UK has a 'new entrant discount' (currently 4 years), but it takes them longer to earn the median.
The Migration Advisory Committee has recommended that the government reduce occupation-specific thresholds for Skilled Workers.
Here's why, in 3 posts...
Here's why, in 3 posts...
December 22, 2025 at 1:24 PM
The Migration Advisory Committee has recommended that the government reduce occupation-specific thresholds for Skilled Workers.
Here's why, in 3 posts...
Here's why, in 3 posts...
The qualifying period to settlement will be increased to a baseline of 10 years.
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
November 20, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The qualifying period to settlement will be increased to a baseline of 10 years.
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
These criteria will increase or reduce that time, for those who qualify. Only one criterion from each table can be applied
The partners of Skilled Workers had higher median earnings, at £30,200, in the year ending March 2024. That's around median earnings for all employees.
October 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
The partners of Skilled Workers had higher median earnings, at £30,200, in the year ending March 2024. That's around median earnings for all employees.
Many partners of health and care workers were also working in the sector.
Overall, their median earnings were £22,100 in the year ending March 2024.
Overall, their median earnings were £22,100 in the year ending March 2024.
October 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Many partners of health and care workers were also working in the sector.
Overall, their median earnings were £22,100 in the year ending March 2024.
Overall, their median earnings were £22,100 in the year ending March 2024.
Conviction and imprisonment rates vary widely by nationality.
We can be confident that some smaller nationalities (e.g. Albanians) are overrepresented, but we can't say how much, because the UK's population stats are highly uncertain.
However, we can estimate this for larger non-citizen groups.
We can be confident that some smaller nationalities (e.g. Albanians) are overrepresented, but we can't say how much, because the UK's population stats are highly uncertain.
However, we can estimate this for larger non-citizen groups.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Conviction and imprisonment rates vary widely by nationality.
We can be confident that some smaller nationalities (e.g. Albanians) are overrepresented, but we can't say how much, because the UK's population stats are highly uncertain.
However, we can estimate this for larger non-citizen groups.
We can be confident that some smaller nationalities (e.g. Albanians) are overrepresented, but we can't say how much, because the UK's population stats are highly uncertain.
However, we can estimate this for larger non-citizen groups.
Foreign nationals are overrepresented among drug and fraud offenders, while underrepresented for violent offences & robbery.
For sexual offences, it's more complicated. Non-citizens are overrepresented for cautions/convictions but underrepresented in the prison population.
For sexual offences, it's more complicated. Non-citizens are overrepresented for cautions/convictions but underrepresented in the prison population.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Foreign nationals are overrepresented among drug and fraud offenders, while underrepresented for violent offences & robbery.
For sexual offences, it's more complicated. Non-citizens are overrepresented for cautions/convictions but underrepresented in the prison population.
For sexual offences, it's more complicated. Non-citizens are overrepresented for cautions/convictions but underrepresented in the prison population.
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
September 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.
I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read.
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
September 5, 2025 at 12:46 PM
I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read.
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
In the Q&A, we cover the following:
What I found most interesting when writing this update was the increased number of students moving to graduate visas, likely a result of more restrictive Skilled Worker criteria.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
August 12, 2025 at 9:52 AM
What I found most interesting when writing this update was the increased number of students moving to graduate visas, likely a result of more restrictive Skilled Worker criteria.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.
At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%).
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
August 1, 2025 at 7:15 AM
At the end of June, foreign nationals made up 10% of the sentenced prison population in England and Wales, a little less than their share of the adult population (12%).
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
New MoJ data shows how that differs by offence type.
Non-EU employees newly entering the workforce under the post-Brexit immigration system appear to have broadly similar earnings compared to those entering before Brexit. Why?
Three potential reasons:
Three potential reasons:
July 29, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Non-EU employees newly entering the workforce under the post-Brexit immigration system appear to have broadly similar earnings compared to those entering before Brexit. Why?
Three potential reasons:
Three potential reasons:
I spoke to Full Fact about whether different nationalities are more likely to be in prison.
Some probably are, but we don't have the data we need to calculate it. Plus any differences we do see will also reflect differences in other characteristics, such as age and income.
Some probably are, but we don't have the data we need to calculate it. Plus any differences we do see will also reflect differences in other characteristics, such as age and income.
July 12, 2025 at 9:32 AM
I spoke to Full Fact about whether different nationalities are more likely to be in prison.
Some probably are, but we don't have the data we need to calculate it. Plus any differences we do see will also reflect differences in other characteristics, such as age and income.
Some probably are, but we don't have the data we need to calculate it. Plus any differences we do see will also reflect differences in other characteristics, such as age and income.
Netherlands would be cool (Cruyff Arena would be awesome!). But after looking at the Maldives, I hope we get a game against second division side Mahibadhoo FC
✅ Next to the beach
✅ Hidden among the houses like Loftus Road or Fratton Park
✅ Next to the beach
✅ Hidden among the houses like Loftus Road or Fratton Park
July 10, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Netherlands would be cool (Cruyff Arena would be awesome!). But after looking at the Maldives, I hope we get a game against second division side Mahibadhoo FC
✅ Next to the beach
✅ Hidden among the houses like Loftus Road or Fratton Park
✅ Next to the beach
✅ Hidden among the houses like Loftus Road or Fratton Park
From 22 July, 111 jobs will no longer qualify for Skilled Worker visas, but a sizable number will still be able to recruit migrants.
In fact, of the 26,900 people who got a Skilled Worker visa between October and March, 76% were for jobs that will remain eligible.
In fact, of the 26,900 people who got a Skilled Worker visa between October and March, 76% were for jobs that will remain eligible.
July 8, 2025 at 8:30 AM
From 22 July, 111 jobs will no longer qualify for Skilled Worker visas, but a sizable number will still be able to recruit migrants.
In fact, of the 26,900 people who got a Skilled Worker visa between October and March, 76% were for jobs that will remain eligible.
In fact, of the 26,900 people who got a Skilled Worker visa between October and March, 76% were for jobs that will remain eligible.
Can a team have too many Rolls Royces?
July 7, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Can a team have too many Rolls Royces?
You've spent too much time with Rossco
June 15, 2025 at 11:59 AM
You've spent too much time with Rossco
3. What is the net migration of British citizens?
We won't find this out on Thursday, though, because the ONS is currently not able to measure the net migration of Brits at all. They're rolling forward data from previous estimates.
We won't find this out on Thursday, though, because the ONS is currently not able to measure the net migration of Brits at all. They're rolling forward data from previous estimates.
May 20, 2025 at 8:16 AM
3. What is the net migration of British citizens?
We won't find this out on Thursday, though, because the ONS is currently not able to measure the net migration of Brits at all. They're rolling forward data from previous estimates.
We won't find this out on Thursday, though, because the ONS is currently not able to measure the net migration of Brits at all. They're rolling forward data from previous estimates.
2. What will happen to emigration?
We know a lot more about people arriving than we do people leaving. Since Brexit, international students have been more likely to stay in the UK after their studies. Will that continue?
We know a lot more about people arriving than we do people leaving. Since Brexit, international students have been more likely to stay in the UK after their studies. Will that continue?
May 20, 2025 at 8:16 AM
2. What will happen to emigration?
We know a lot more about people arriving than we do people leaving. Since Brexit, international students have been more likely to stay in the UK after their studies. Will that continue?
We know a lot more about people arriving than we do people leaving. Since Brexit, international students have been more likely to stay in the UK after their studies. Will that continue?
1. Will the ONS revise any previous estimates?
Revisions of some sort are to be expected as the initial estimates are based on some ONS assumptions. But recently, the revisions have been substantial.
Revisions of some sort are to be expected as the initial estimates are based on some ONS assumptions. But recently, the revisions have been substantial.
May 20, 2025 at 8:16 AM
1. Will the ONS revise any previous estimates?
Revisions of some sort are to be expected as the initial estimates are based on some ONS assumptions. But recently, the revisions have been substantial.
Revisions of some sort are to be expected as the initial estimates are based on some ONS assumptions. But recently, the revisions have been substantial.
New net migration figures covering 2024 will be released on Thursday.
Fewer visas have been granted, so it's widely expected that numbers will fall. But here are 3 questions we'll be asking when the stats are released.
Fewer visas have been granted, so it's widely expected that numbers will fall. But here are 3 questions we'll be asking when the stats are released.
May 20, 2025 at 8:16 AM
New net migration figures covering 2024 will be released on Thursday.
Fewer visas have been granted, so it's widely expected that numbers will fall. But here are 3 questions we'll be asking when the stats are released.
Fewer visas have been granted, so it's widely expected that numbers will fall. But here are 3 questions we'll be asking when the stats are released.
Last year, the previous government raised Skilled Worker salary thresholds. According to reports, the current govt will now tighten the skills threshold
May 10, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Last year, the previous government raised Skilled Worker salary thresholds. According to reports, the current govt will now tighten the skills threshold
New work visa data show little change in application numbers between March and April.
Health and care apps have settled at 1.7k per month, around half the level of non-healthcare applications (main apps only). Quite the change from 2023, when there were around 13,000 H&C applications per month!
Health and care apps have settled at 1.7k per month, around half the level of non-healthcare applications (main apps only). Quite the change from 2023, when there were around 13,000 H&C applications per month!
May 8, 2025 at 10:48 AM
New work visa data show little change in application numbers between March and April.
Health and care apps have settled at 1.7k per month, around half the level of non-healthcare applications (main apps only). Quite the change from 2023, when there were around 13,000 H&C applications per month!
Health and care apps have settled at 1.7k per month, around half the level of non-healthcare applications (main apps only). Quite the change from 2023, when there were around 13,000 H&C applications per month!
According to @mattdathan.bsky.social, next week's immigration white paper will restrict work and study visa applications from nationalities who are more likely to subsequently claim asylum.
Home Office data shows that 37% of people who claimed asylum in 2024 came to the UK on a visa of some kind.
Home Office data shows that 37% of people who claimed asylum in 2024 came to the UK on a visa of some kind.
May 6, 2025 at 8:48 AM
According to @mattdathan.bsky.social, next week's immigration white paper will restrict work and study visa applications from nationalities who are more likely to subsequently claim asylum.
Home Office data shows that 37% of people who claimed asylum in 2024 came to the UK on a visa of some kind.
Home Office data shows that 37% of people who claimed asylum in 2024 came to the UK on a visa of some kind.