Bread Crumbs Research
@breadcrumbsre.bsky.social
I invest in unrecognized/underappreciated excellence. Marathon AM: Trying to spot a great manager remains a game very much worth playing.
Is this place completely dead now? Over the past hour I’ve got 7 tweets from 742 accounts I follow
August 4, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Is this place completely dead now? Over the past hour I’ve got 7 tweets from 742 accounts I follow
When you account for 10% of daily trading volume in a nanocap stock 🐳
June 18, 2025 at 3:28 PM
When you account for 10% of daily trading volume in a nanocap stock 🐳
Brent down 4.75%, usd index down 1.75%. Oil just got cheaper 6.5% for non US buyers
April 3, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Brent down 4.75%, usd index down 1.75%. Oil just got cheaper 6.5% for non US buyers
It seems like there is at least one certainty: if I’m a ceo of a US company I’m delaying investment projects to see where the dust will settle down
April 3, 2025 at 8:55 AM
It seems like there is at least one certainty: if I’m a ceo of a US company I’m delaying investment projects to see where the dust will settle down
If Trump tariffs cause recession I’m loading up with oil stocks, anyone who survives 3 recessions in a decade will have bright future
April 3, 2025 at 8:02 AM
If Trump tariffs cause recession I’m loading up with oil stocks, anyone who survives 3 recessions in a decade will have bright future
State of oil services now: I own a company that’s trading at c. 6x ebitda and buys other oil services companies at 3-4x ebitda (that’s 6-8x p/fcf); last 8 years revenue per share cagr = 21%. I know, I will get rekt on this one but at least it’s going to be fun
April 1, 2025 at 3:24 PM
State of oil services now: I own a company that’s trading at c. 6x ebitda and buys other oil services companies at 3-4x ebitda (that’s 6-8x p/fcf); last 8 years revenue per share cagr = 21%. I know, I will get rekt on this one but at least it’s going to be fun
My favorite chart of the day
March 24, 2025 at 12:10 PM
My favorite chart of the day
There is a category of cyclical stocks that are flat for decade, then double or triple in a couple of years and stay flat for another decade
March 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
There is a category of cyclical stocks that are flat for decade, then double or triple in a couple of years and stay flat for another decade
How to pick good management teams
March 18, 2025 at 4:52 PM
How to pick good management teams
This podcast is the most clear sign of the bubble in so called "quality" stocks I've seen so far @upslopecapital.bsky.social
March 17, 2025 at 9:51 AM
This podcast is the most clear sign of the bubble in so called "quality" stocks I've seen so far @upslopecapital.bsky.social
Management philosophy of Post Holdings
March 13, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Management philosophy of Post Holdings
Does it make sense to pursue green transition agenda in a dog eats dog world? Waiting for Europe to abandon this effort
March 7, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Does it make sense to pursue green transition agenda in a dog eats dog world? Waiting for Europe to abandon this effort
Reposted by Bread Crumbs Research
We Finns should have learned this already from the Winter War. Without the social policies of the 20's-30s, the war would have most likely ended differently. But thanks to those policies, even the poor felt like 🇫🇮 was worth defending, unlike in 1918.
Read the whole thread, but summarised:
Part of defending your country is seeing to it that everyone feels they have something worth defending. Overwhelming firepower is useless if people won't fight.
Welfare state = (also) defence policy
Part of defending your country is seeing to it that everyone feels they have something worth defending. Overwhelming firepower is useless if people won't fight.
Welfare state = (also) defence policy
Sure, history and location matter.
But do you really believe we would be willing to spend months in the snow and sleet to train to fight and possibly die to defend a society that caters only for the wealthy?
We have a SOCIAL CONTRACT, even if our own bozos don't want to understand that either.
But do you really believe we would be willing to spend months in the snow and sleet to train to fight and possibly die to defend a society that caters only for the wealthy?
We have a SOCIAL CONTRACT, even if our own bozos don't want to understand that either.
March 6, 2025 at 12:37 PM
We Finns should have learned this already from the Winter War. Without the social policies of the 20's-30s, the war would have most likely ended differently. But thanks to those policies, even the poor felt like 🇫🇮 was worth defending, unlike in 1918.
Trump is dismantling existing world order and you’re not bullish commodities ?
March 7, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Trump is dismantling existing world order and you’re not bullish commodities ?
European defence stocks in panic buying mode
March 3, 2025 at 8:28 AM
European defence stocks in panic buying mode
Bust after post Covid boom seems like a decent hunting ground
February 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Bust after post Covid boom seems like a decent hunting ground
India looks unstoppable
February 25, 2025 at 12:41 PM
India looks unstoppable
Done shitposting for today, back to work
February 25, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Done shitposting for today, back to work
Thinking about the value of experience in business and investing. My hypothesis based on observation is that experience is more valuable in slow moving industries (banks, oil and gas) than in fast moving industries like tech
February 25, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Thinking about the value of experience in business and investing. My hypothesis based on observation is that experience is more valuable in slow moving industries (banks, oil and gas) than in fast moving industries like tech
It seems like capital allocation skill is a natural extension of operational excellence. Never seen good capital allocator management who were not good operators. But not all good operators master capital allocation, which itself takes a lot of time
February 25, 2025 at 10:47 AM
It seems like capital allocation skill is a natural extension of operational excellence. Never seen good capital allocator management who were not good operators. But not all good operators master capital allocation, which itself takes a lot of time
I like this definition of corporate culture: the worst behaviors that leadership are willing to tolerate.
February 21, 2025 at 9:01 AM
I like this definition of corporate culture: the worst behaviors that leadership are willing to tolerate.
Babcock with a casual +10% day on strong guidance
Babcock at 10x earnings growing at 15%, yet nobody cares
www.ft.com/content/8c35...
www.ft.com/content/8c35...
Western investors ‘stupid’ to shun arms industry, says Nato official
Rob Bauer calls on banks, pension funds and rating agencies to change outdated policies in face of rising threats
www.ft.com
February 6, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Babcock with a casual +10% day on strong guidance
Reposted by Bread Crumbs Research
I have translated today's speech in the German Bundestag by Ukrainian Jewish Holocaust survivor Roman Shvartsman into English, because I think it is really important that as many people as possible read it. Please re-post and share. Thank you very much!
www.bundestag.de/dokumente/te...
www.bundestag.de/dokumente/te...
January 29, 2025 at 2:37 PM
I have translated today's speech in the German Bundestag by Ukrainian Jewish Holocaust survivor Roman Shvartsman into English, because I think it is really important that as many people as possible read it. Please re-post and share. Thank you very much!
www.bundestag.de/dokumente/te...
www.bundestag.de/dokumente/te...
UPS is done
$AMZN effect is immediate & harsh. $UPS guiding 2025 revenue 6% below street, c$6 billion(!). No wonder Tome needs to do wholesale restructuring to asset/cost base. Left $HD to preside over this hot mess 😱 $FDX
January 30, 2025 at 11:56 AM
UPS is done