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Mountain View, CA
In which I dive into the vibecession debates, explore why people are pissed, and get ahead of the incoming pushback on affordability as an economic priority. newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/why-afford...
In which I dive into the vibecession debates, explore why people are pissed, and get ahead of the incoming pushback on affordability as an economic priority. newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/why-afford...
indignity.net/the-clown-joke/?ref=indignity-newsletter&attribution_id=698a3cd4653fe5000118210c&attribution_type=post
indignity.net/the-clown-joke/?ref=indignity-newsletter&attribution_id=698a3cd4653fe5000118210c&attribution_type=post
Given:
P(Inc | ~Neg) = 0.001
P(Inc | Neg) = 0.9
P(Neg) = 0.01
Bayes:
P(Neg | Inc) = P(Inc | Neg) P(Neg) / P(Inc)
P(Neg | Inc) = P(Inc | Neg) P(Neg) / [P(Inc | Neg) + P(Inc | ~Neg)]
P(Neg | Inc) = 0.9 * 0.01 / (0.9 + 0.001)
P(Neg | Inc) = 0.00999 ~= 1%
Given:
P(Inc | ~Neg) = 0.001
P(Inc | Neg) = 0.9
P(Neg) = 0.01
Bayes:
P(Neg | Inc) = P(Inc | Neg) P(Neg) / P(Inc)
P(Neg | Inc) = P(Inc | Neg) P(Neg) / [P(Inc | Neg) + P(Inc | ~Neg)]
P(Neg | Inc) = 0.9 * 0.01 / (0.9 + 0.001)
P(Neg | Inc) = 0.00999 ~= 1%
Note: This is not necessarily about box office, Oscars, critical acclaim, though all of those can count. It's more... pieces of it have so completely permeated our cultural groundwater that it will always be there.