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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 18m

Like what the fuck, it's just Bedlam

Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 19m

Finding this out has reminded me that virtually everyone on here is severely disturbed in one way or another and I should probably log off

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 31m

wow holy shit

Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 48m

Another unwitting foe enters the Stancildome

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 2h

(Lor Anderson voice) Right. Again.

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 3h

Feeling like maybe Simone Weil would be an interesting person to learn more about

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 3h

Richard Lewontin used to say the day he stopped publishing basic research would be the day he stopped offering his opinion as a public intellectual and he kept that promise

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

"How to make education more like the most aggravating and wasteful aspects of health care"

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

Oh shit, true

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

That's true! But I've got more effective ways of encouraging brain atrophy (such as the writings of GWF Hegel)

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

The bad scenario I see people talking about (MT Sweeney on here e.g.) is a real face to face liberal arts education for the children of the elite and intellectuals, religious/patriotic charter schools for the middle class, and basically kid jail/work programs for the poor kids

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

The way AI actually works out is like how when Moishe Postone was explaining profit and value and there's the extreme case of one guy who operates a factory-sized machine that makes all the stuff and that guy's labor is where all the profit comes from by definition. It's true! But it's weird.

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

Bryan Caplan is bad

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

Also the computers in the warehouses depreciate a shit load faster than rail or fiber! It's going to be a blood bath.

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah I think there will be expensive AI tools that companies rent to other companies and the expense will be that making this stuff work is hard and requires domain and management expertise. The dream of the magic genie that will just *poof* no more employees only profit! makes no sense whatsoever.

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 10h

Now we're talking

Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 10h

There is an Underpants Gnomes problem for sure. But I am still an AI service/office productivity crank over the next several years.

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 10h

The business case could be very good as a tool but you would need yeah moats of expertise to install and manage the edges, which will be numerous

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Reposted by Ayo Hirschman

Praxis Thoughts Haver @praxisprocess.bsky.social · 10h

Theophite's assumptions are my base case as well: Google and Msft (fine), META (fucked), OpenAI(smoldering crater), Oracle (not fine). Also think companies like Coreweave and Anthropic are also pretty boned. The use case exists, but the business case remains ephemeral because the moats are fake.

rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 10h

at present, what is happening is that all of the capex out to 2027 is being done in 2025. the idea is that if there are first-mover profits on AI, you can buy them out of free cash flow right now and then pull back on capex if the market for AI is limited.

Sharon @sharonk.bsky.social · 11h

i genuinely do not see how exactly we are going to see all this AI/data center demand work out in the long run? like, thankfully most of investments are with cash not debt, but even then, what exactly is the case for AI investment here?

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 10h

Back of the envelope they're going to lose a shitload of money and Open AI is kind of a phony company

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 10h

Definitely, but those investments need bigger cash flows to validate them than tee shirts and, what, flame throwers

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 10h

It's hard to see how people who pay for this crap, they don't pay for Newsweek!

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 10h

If I'm so smart how come I'm not rich caveats apply, but this seems right to me

rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 10h

of the majors, I think Google and Microsoft are well-positioned to stop capex if the profits come in too low to justify the investment and then buy back investor loyalty with stock buybacks. NVIDIA is probably in for a big correction because they can't do this. in this world OpenAI is dead.

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Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 11h

The bosses aren't done being mad about your bad attitude yet

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Reposted by Ayo Hirschman

Ayo Hirschman @contextproblem.bsky.social · 1d

Lots of luck with that and both of your comrades, the cop and the CI

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