David Shor
@davidshor.bsky.social
Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami.
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
And some pretty striking discrepancies of how Denmark residents view the US vs China and Russia.
February 6, 2026 at 6:06 PM
And some pretty striking discrepancies of how Denmark residents view the US vs China and Russia.
Some fun tidbits here to see how much more likely Danish people are to say they think their country is heading in the right direction and that they trust the media, though some similar pessimistic economic outlooks we’re seeing here.
February 6, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Some fun tidbits here to see how much more likely Danish people are to say they think their country is heading in the right direction and that they trust the media, though some similar pessimistic economic outlooks we’re seeing here.
New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2).
Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him.
No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.
Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him.
No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.
February 6, 2026 at 6:06 PM
New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2).
Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him.
No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.
Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him.
No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.
Reposted by David Shor
One of the insights of @davidshor.bsky.social is that a party or movement can take an unpopular issue and run with it and make it popular among its own voters, getting from 15% support to 45% support, it just can't get over 50% that way. (This is more or less happening re Venezuela.)
Net-Approval For Taking Greenland By Force:
🔴 All: -72%
🔴 Democrats: -94%
🔴 Independents: -80%
🔴 Republicans: -40%
🔴 Black: -86%
🔴 White: -70%
🔴 Hispanic: -66%
🔴 Women: -78%
🔴 Men: -66%
YouGov / Jan 16, 2026
🔴 All: -72%
🔴 Democrats: -94%
🔴 Independents: -80%
🔴 Republicans: -40%
🔴 Black: -86%
🔴 White: -70%
🔴 Hispanic: -66%
🔴 Women: -78%
🔴 Men: -66%
YouGov / Jan 16, 2026
January 20, 2026 at 12:07 AM
One of the insights of @davidshor.bsky.social is that a party or movement can take an unpopular issue and run with it and make it popular among its own voters, getting from 15% support to 45% support, it just can't get over 50% that way. (This is more or less happening re Venezuela.)
Do you support or oppose new AI data centers being built in your local community?
31% support, 44% oppose
Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%?
59% support 18% oppose
31% support, 44% oppose
Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%?
59% support 18% oppose
January 16, 2026 at 9:36 PM
Do you support or oppose new AI data centers being built in your local community?
31% support, 44% oppose
Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%?
59% support 18% oppose
31% support, 44% oppose
Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%?
59% support 18% oppose
We recently tested ~ a dozen public statements from a diverse set of Democratic elected officials on the murder of Renee Good and this was the top testing one
AOC: I want everybody to understand that the cuts to your health care are what’s paying for this. You get screwed over to pay a bunch of thugs in the street that are shooting mothers in the face.
January 15, 2026 at 5:30 PM
We recently tested ~ a dozen public statements from a diverse set of Democratic elected officials on the murder of Renee Good and this was the top testing one
People don’t have a good sense for how much age varies geographically - the red areas are super old
December 28, 2025 at 8:49 PM
People don’t have a good sense for how much age varies geographically - the red areas are super old
When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points.
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
December 28, 2025 at 8:23 PM
When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points.
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.
N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10
I’m collecting more data on gender of first child to address this - give me a couple weeks and I’ll update
December 23, 2025 at 11:20 PM
I’m collecting more data on gender of first child to address this - give me a couple weeks and I’ll update
I omitted no kids from both regressions, yeah.
But just started collecting some more data so should be able to check soon.
But just started collecting some more data so should be able to check soon.
December 19, 2025 at 12:31 AM
I omitted no kids from both regressions, yeah.
But just started collecting some more data so should be able to check soon.
But just started collecting some more data so should be able to check soon.
I just started collecting gender of first child so will be fun to see!
December 19, 2025 at 12:29 AM
I just started collecting gender of first child so will be fun to see!
Ah, I see what you’re saying. I can ask a bunch of people what the gender of their first child was and report back in a bit.
December 18, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Ah, I see what you’re saying. I can ask a bunch of people what the gender of their first child was and report back in a bit.
Other little known lore is that I made a relational organizing app called VoteWithMe that was used by hundreds of thousands of people!
Tons of critics lazily assuming I know nothing about canvassing.
www.votecaptain.org/blog/2018/10...
Tons of critics lazily assuming I know nothing about canvassing.
www.votecaptain.org/blog/2018/10...
VoteWithMe Can Help You Find Your Team — Vote Captain
First up in our series on tech tools for Vote Captains, we talk to the VoteWithMe team! VoteWithMe is an app that helps identify friends and contacts that could use an extra push to vote. Sarah Sull...
www.votecaptain.org
December 18, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Other little known lore is that I made a relational organizing app called VoteWithMe that was used by hundreds of thousands of people!
Tons of critics lazily assuming I know nothing about canvassing.
www.votecaptain.org/blog/2018/10...
Tons of critics lazily assuming I know nothing about canvassing.
www.votecaptain.org/blog/2018/10...
I'm collecting more data so I can restrict to folks with one kid but this is what I get when I restrict to 1+2
bsky.app/profile/davi...
bsky.app/profile/davi...
December 18, 2025 at 7:15 PM
I'm collecting more data so I can restrict to folks with one kid but this is what I get when I restrict to 1+2
bsky.app/profile/davi...
bsky.app/profile/davi...
It's just very funny to be lectured on the hyper specific niche that I spent a decade in by people who have only consumed pro-canvassing propaganda that *I personally was involved in helping craft*
December 18, 2025 at 7:13 PM
It's just very funny to be lectured on the hyper specific niche that I spent a decade in by people who have only consumed pro-canvassing propaganda that *I personally was involved in helping craft*
What I find annoying about the push-back I've gotten on this is that I have personally organized and analyzed multiple million-person-plus canvassing experiments as part of my job.
December 18, 2025 at 7:11 PM
What I find annoying about the push-back I've gotten on this is that I have personally organized and analyzed multiple million-person-plus canvassing experiments as part of my job.
the actual regressions are
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
December 18, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Just 1 is noisier ofc but broadly looks similar
December 18, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Just 1 is noisier ofc but broadly looks similar
This is what you get when you restrict to 1-2 kids
December 18, 2025 at 4:08 PM
This is what you get when you restrict to 1-2 kids
I think the main thing we have to add is just scale (this was based on ~22k folks with biological kids), but I'm going to collect ~5x as much data so it'll be fun to see what we find.
Agree the effects are small either way.
Agree the effects are small either way.
December 18, 2025 at 4:05 PM
I think the main thing we have to add is just scale (this was based on ~22k folks with biological kids), but I'm going to collect ~5x as much data so it'll be fun to see what we find.
Agree the effects are small either way.
Agree the effects are small either way.
This was not very clear - it's like, what's the effect of going from two daughters to two daughters and one son or the reverse
December 18, 2025 at 4:04 PM
This was not very clear - it's like, what's the effect of going from two daughters to two daughters and one son or the reverse
the actual regressions are
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
December 18, 2025 at 4:04 PM
the actual regressions are
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
December 18, 2025 at 4:03 PM
the actual regressions are
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff
So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.
Not totally sure, my vibe from playing with it a bit is that it's more of a have at least one thing rather than female share per se, but I'm collecting more data
December 18, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Not totally sure, my vibe from playing with it a bit is that it's more of a have at least one thing rather than female share per se, but I'm collecting more data
Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.
December 18, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.
Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.
Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.