Brian Blank
@dbblank.bsky.social
Acts 4:13 Disciple, Husband, Girl Dad x 3, Son, Brother, Assoc Prof Finance @ Mississippi State in Empirical Corporate via Alabama, Roll Tide! & Tennessee PhD, @arsenalfc.bsky.social Fan, Scholarship: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=VxWst50
Reposted by Brian Blank
Goldman: “We are launching our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at 2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), 1.1pp above the Bloomberg consensus but 3.0pp below the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model.”
1/2
1/2
January 11, 2026 at 8:21 PM
Goldman: “We are launching our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at 2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), 1.1pp above the Bloomberg consensus but 3.0pp below the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model.”
1/2
1/2
Reposted by Brian Blank
Nate being 13-2 against State is a really underrated stat of his tenure
January 14, 2026 at 4:28 AM
Nate being 13-2 against State is a really underrated stat of his tenure
Reposted by Brian Blank
Indiana bowl wins in 139 years:
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
January 10, 2026 at 5:48 AM
Indiana bowl wins in 139 years:
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
Pre-Cignetti: 3
This season: 2
Reposted by Brian Blank
Yeah, 4-to-1 might have been underselling it.
January 10, 2026 at 12:25 AM
Yeah, 4-to-1 might have been underselling it.
Reposted by Brian Blank
A recession in 2026 seems unlikely with all the fiscal stimulus (plus a bounce back in Q1 from government shutdown).
There are longer term issues that are very concerning, but probably not this year.
There are longer term issues that are very concerning, but probably not this year.
January 6, 2026 at 5:15 PM
A recession in 2026 seems unlikely with all the fiscal stimulus (plus a bounce back in Q1 from government shutdown).
There are longer term issues that are very concerning, but probably not this year.
There are longer term issues that are very concerning, but probably not this year.
Reposted by Brian Blank
Has the Fed fixed the economy yet? And other burning economic questions for 2026
Has the Fed fixed the economy yet? And other burning economic questions for 2026
As 2026 begins, uncertainty is at the top of everyone’s mind.
buff.ly
December 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Has the Fed fixed the economy yet? And other burning economic questions for 2026
Reposted by Brian Blank
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:55 PM
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
Reposted by Brian Blank
Derrick Henry is up to 112 yards rushing on the night. That's puts him over 13,000 yards for his career.
January 5, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Derrick Henry is up to 112 yards rushing on the night. That's puts him over 13,000 yards for his career.
Reposted by Brian Blank
"The 30-year fixed mortgage makes the U.S. housing market unique. It brings stability but it heavily anchors homeowners in place. Instead of prices adjusting when demand drops, sellers hunker down...This makes the U.S. housing cycle about volume, not prices." Cotality Principal Economist Thom Malone
December 22, 2025 at 9:08 PM
"The 30-year fixed mortgage makes the U.S. housing market unique. It brings stability but it heavily anchors homeowners in place. Instead of prices adjusting when demand drops, sellers hunker down...This makes the U.S. housing cycle about volume, not prices." Cotality Principal Economist Thom Malone
Reposted by Brian Blank
2026 outlooks:
Tech people: Who cares what’s happening in the real economy, we’re building machine god
Global people: Reacceleration
US housing/labor: Surely policymakers will do something to fix this
Tech people: Who cares what’s happening in the real economy, we’re building machine god
Global people: Reacceleration
US housing/labor: Surely policymakers will do something to fix this
December 19, 2025 at 12:01 PM
2026 outlooks:
Tech people: Who cares what’s happening in the real economy, we’re building machine god
Global people: Reacceleration
US housing/labor: Surely policymakers will do something to fix this
Tech people: Who cares what’s happening in the real economy, we’re building machine god
Global people: Reacceleration
US housing/labor: Surely policymakers will do something to fix this
Reposted by Brian Blank
* The dropped pass/dropped punt sequence was huuuuuge
* Hello, Lotzeir Brooks
* Simpson wasn't great, but he was better than Mateer
* Live by special teams and turnovers, die by special teams and turnovers
BAMA-OU TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Hello, Lotzeir Brooks
* Simpson wasn't great, but he was better than Mateer
* Live by special teams and turnovers, die by special teams and turnovers
BAMA-OU TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
CFP first-round takeaways: Special teams collapses and momentum swings for Bama
Alabama is the first to move on. Here's what we've learned from the game.
www.espn.com
December 20, 2025 at 5:46 AM
* The dropped pass/dropped punt sequence was huuuuuge
* Hello, Lotzeir Brooks
* Simpson wasn't great, but he was better than Mateer
* Live by special teams and turnovers, die by special teams and turnovers
BAMA-OU TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
* Hello, Lotzeir Brooks
* Simpson wasn't great, but he was better than Mateer
* Live by special teams and turnovers, die by special teams and turnovers
BAMA-OU TAKEAWAYS: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Reposted by Brian Blank
Existing home sales 2024 vs 2025:
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
December 19, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Existing home sales 2024 vs 2025:
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
YTD 2024: 3,733,000
YTD 2025: 3,714,000 down 0.5%
Last year was the lowest since 1995. It will be close this year!
Reposted by Brian Blank
Can't believe they were waiting for my permission, sheesh.
December 20, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Can't believe they were waiting for my permission, sheesh.
Reposted by Brian Blank
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
calculatedrisk.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...
Reposted by Brian Blank
For tomorrow's claims release:
1/ The IC print 2 weeks ago (192K) was absurdly low, and the print 1 week ago was absurdly high (236K), I imagine we end up somewhere in the middle.
The main reason layoff increases haven't clearly shown up in this data->they're relatively small
1/ The IC print 2 weeks ago (192K) was absurdly low, and the print 1 week ago was absurdly high (236K), I imagine we end up somewhere in the middle.
The main reason layoff increases haven't clearly shown up in this data->they're relatively small
December 17, 2025 at 11:53 PM
For tomorrow's claims release:
1/ The IC print 2 weeks ago (192K) was absurdly low, and the print 1 week ago was absurdly high (236K), I imagine we end up somewhere in the middle.
The main reason layoff increases haven't clearly shown up in this data->they're relatively small
1/ The IC print 2 weeks ago (192K) was absurdly low, and the print 1 week ago was absurdly high (236K), I imagine we end up somewhere in the middle.
The main reason layoff increases haven't clearly shown up in this data->they're relatively small
Reposted by Brian Blank
The next financial crisis is coming ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-...
"The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system."
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-...
"The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system."
December 18, 2025 at 12:22 AM
The next financial crisis is coming ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-...
"The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system."
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-...
"The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system."
Reposted by Brian Blank
How high can Indiana rise? Where should we place 2024 Ohio State? Who's 64th?? It's time for my annual RANKING EVERY CFP TEAM EVER piece. (The playoff can't start until I've had a chance to again annoy Michigan State and LSU fans in particular with this old chestnut.)
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Ranking all 64 teams in College Football Playoff history
How do this year's CFP entrants stack up with those of the past -- and how high could they climb?
www.espn.com
December 15, 2025 at 3:52 PM
How high can Indiana rise? Where should we place 2024 Ohio State? Who's 64th?? It's time for my annual RANKING EVERY CFP TEAM EVER piece. (The playoff can't start until I've had a chance to again annoy Michigan State and LSU fans in particular with this old chestnut.)
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Reposted by Brian Blank
Cotality: Homeowners With Negative Equity Increasing
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/cota...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/cota...
Cotality: Homeowners With Negative Equity Increasing
From Cotality U.S. home equity dips further this fall Cotality ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the third quarter o...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 11, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Cotality: Homeowners With Negative Equity Increasing
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/cota...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/cota...
Reposted by Brian Blank
Writing this week's CFP preview and found that the 5th- and 6th-least likely wins of 2025, per Postgame Win Expectancy, were OU>Bama and Duke>Clemson.
Without those results, ND and either BYU or UVA (if Miami blows the ACC CG) are in the CFP and OU and JMU are out.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Without those results, ND and either BYU or UVA (if Miami blows the ACC CG) are in the CFP and OU and JMU are out.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
December 15, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Writing this week's CFP preview and found that the 5th- and 6th-least likely wins of 2025, per Postgame Win Expectancy, were OU>Bama and Duke>Clemson.
Without those results, ND and either BYU or UVA (if Miami blows the ACC CG) are in the CFP and OU and JMU are out.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Without those results, ND and either BYU or UVA (if Miami blows the ACC CG) are in the CFP and OU and JMU are out.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Brian Blank
Alabama shouldn’t make it, I’ll say that, but there’s a very real chance the #1 team in the SEC regular season not making the Playoff because they played in a conference championship game will end conference championship games. Playoff money more than conference championship game money.
If Alabama is picked for a playoff berth, this will be the biggest fix since the Black Sox.
December 7, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Alabama shouldn’t make it, I’ll say that, but there’s a very real chance the #1 team in the SEC regular season not making the Playoff because they played in a conference championship game will end conference championship games. Playoff money more than conference championship game money.
Reposted by Brian Blank
Personal Income Increased 0.4% in September; Spending Increased 0.3%
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pers...
Core PCE slightly below expectations. Spending below expectations.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pers...
Core PCE slightly below expectations. Spending below expectations.
Personal Income Increased 0.4% in September; Spending Increased 0.3%
From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025 Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in Septe...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 5, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Personal Income Increased 0.4% in September; Spending Increased 0.3%
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pers...
Core PCE slightly below expectations. Spending below expectations.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pers...
Core PCE slightly below expectations. Spending below expectations.
Reposted by Brian Blank
It’s also the team that finished first in the regular season this year, name or not
December 6, 2025 at 11:53 PM
It’s also the team that finished first in the regular season this year, name or not
Reposted by Brian Blank
Q3 GDP Tracking: Mid 3%
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/q3-g...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/q3-g...
Q3 GDP Tracking: Mid 3%
The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled. Q3 GDP will be released on Dec 23rd. From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q G...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Q3 GDP Tracking: Mid 3%
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/q3-g...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/q3-g...
Reposted by Brian Blank
Doug Gottlieb threw a chair tonight and for good reason: Green Bay was on the wrong end of the least likely comeback of the season, losing an 11-point lead (with the ball!) in the final 2:53.
December 5, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Doug Gottlieb threw a chair tonight and for good reason: Green Bay was on the wrong end of the least likely comeback of the season, losing an 11-point lead (with the ball!) in the final 2:53.
Reposted by Brian Blank
PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 3.7% YoY in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pce-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pce-...
PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 3.7% YoY in September
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through Septe...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
December 5, 2025 at 3:48 PM
PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 3.7% YoY in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pce-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/pce-...