Ian Boucher
@desolationrow5.bsky.social
Reposted by Ian Boucher
If you would like to know the actual problems with the budget I set it all out in detail here.
As Stephen says the problem is the headroom isn't really there. Not that Reeves had loads of spare cash...
samf.substack.com/p/survival-f...
As Stephen says the problem is the headroom isn't really there. Not that Reeves had loads of spare cash...
samf.substack.com/p/survival-f...
December 1, 2025 at 11:26 AM
If you would like to know the actual problems with the budget I set it all out in detail here.
As Stephen says the problem is the headroom isn't really there. Not that Reeves had loads of spare cash...
samf.substack.com/p/survival-f...
As Stephen says the problem is the headroom isn't really there. Not that Reeves had loads of spare cash...
samf.substack.com/p/survival-f...
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Rachel Reeves's "headroom" is based on:
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
Suggestion Rachel Reeves exaggerated fiscal pressures is absurd
Chancellor was instead far too optimistic about public finances and government’s ability to secure cuts
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Rachel Reeves's "headroom" is based on:
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
-£16bn in 'efficiency savings'
-£6bn in savings in order to fund taking SEND off local government backs
-tax rises that largely come in at the end of the forecast
-immigration being at c340k net in 2029!
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Feel like I'm going mad. The Budget's 'headroom' is based on frankly irresponsible and wildly optimistic claims about what Labour will do in the final year of the forecast, and on ignoring a bunch of upward pressures on spending, and the claim is that she was being exaggeratedly *pessimistic*?
Suggestion Rachel Reeves exaggerated fiscal pressures is absurd
Chancellor was instead far too optimistic about public finances and government’s ability to secure cuts
www.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Feel like I'm going mad. The Budget's 'headroom' is based on frankly irresponsible and wildly optimistic claims about what Labour will do in the final year of the forecast, and on ignoring a bunch of upward pressures on spending, and the claim is that she was being exaggeratedly *pessimistic*?
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Those cans we kept kicking down the road - there's a big pile of them that are coming into view!
December 1, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Those cans we kept kicking down the road - there's a big pile of them that are coming into view!
Reposted by Ian Boucher
It's completely ridiculous. Pre-budget everyone thought the headroom gap was £20-30bn including policy changes (e.g. on welfare). It was in fact £16bn.
It's hardly a massive difference.
It's hardly a massive difference.
I’m quite enjoying the 180 turn on a six pence from “you’ve wrecked the economy and created a black hole” to “there was no black hole and this is even worse”.
November 30, 2025 at 9:45 AM
It's completely ridiculous. Pre-budget everyone thought the headroom gap was £20-30bn including policy changes (e.g. on welfare). It was in fact £16bn.
It's hardly a massive difference.
It's hardly a massive difference.
Reposted by Ian Boucher
famously, also, Mary and Joseph travelled to Bethlehem just for a romantic minibreak, not because they had to pay any taxes or anything
November 28, 2025 at 11:50 AM
famously, also, Mary and Joseph travelled to Bethlehem just for a romantic minibreak, not because they had to pay any taxes or anything
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Very revealing that the general public is in favour of measures that mean more money for the median voter, against measures that mean less money for the median voter, against more money for those who aren't the median voter, and for less money for those who aren't the median voter.
November 27, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Very revealing that the general public is in favour of measures that mean more money for the median voter, against measures that mean less money for the median voter, against more money for those who aren't the median voter, and for less money for those who aren't the median voter.
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Reposted by Ian Boucher
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
November 27, 2025 at 12:55 PM
This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one.
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent.
But beneath the surface...
Reposted by Ian Boucher
I also think that part of this is the weird disappearance of economics from our national debate.
It just... doesnt seem to matter that much to many people
It just... doesnt seem to matter that much to many people
Starmer and Reeves run probably the most economically left-wing government of past five decades and yet bleeding support to its left thanks to dumb strategy www.economist.com/britain/2025...
November 27, 2025 at 9:02 AM
I also think that part of this is the weird disappearance of economics from our national debate.
It just... doesnt seem to matter that much to many people
It just... doesnt seem to matter that much to many people
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Tax take raised to 38% of GDP (normal European levels), mansion tax, one of the highest wage floors in the world, rail nationalised, two child benefit cap reversed, industrial policy, etc etc.
November 26, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Tax take raised to 38% of GDP (normal European levels), mansion tax, one of the highest wage floors in the world, rail nationalised, two child benefit cap reversed, industrial policy, etc etc.
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Labour aren't "refusing to tax the rich", Zack.
The top 10% of UK earners pay 60% of the total income tax burden, & 39% of the total UK tax burden.
They are now going to be paying extra charges on their houses if worth over £2million as well.
25% of UK taxes are paid by the top 1% (ie millionaires)
The top 10% of UK earners pay 60% of the total income tax burden, & 39% of the total UK tax burden.
They are now going to be paying extra charges on their houses if worth over £2million as well.
25% of UK taxes are paid by the top 1% (ie millionaires)
The 50 wealthiest families own more wealth than the bottom 50% of the population.
How can this Labour Government say this is a "cost of living" budget and refuse to tax the rich?
They care about protecting power and wealth. And cost of living is a buzz phrase for them. Dire.
How can this Labour Government say this is a "cost of living" budget and refuse to tax the rich?
They care about protecting power and wealth. And cost of living is a buzz phrase for them. Dire.
November 26, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Labour aren't "refusing to tax the rich", Zack.
The top 10% of UK earners pay 60% of the total income tax burden, & 39% of the total UK tax burden.
They are now going to be paying extra charges on their houses if worth over £2million as well.
25% of UK taxes are paid by the top 1% (ie millionaires)
The top 10% of UK earners pay 60% of the total income tax burden, & 39% of the total UK tax burden.
They are now going to be paying extra charges on their houses if worth over £2million as well.
25% of UK taxes are paid by the top 1% (ie millionaires)
Reposted by Ian Boucher
The two-child cap pushed half of children in larger families into poverty. Today, Labour abolishes it.
I stood for office to stop drawing charts and start changing them. This change will see the biggest drop in child poverty of any parliament on record.
Know what that is? Hope.
I stood for office to stop drawing charts and start changing them. This change will see the biggest drop in child poverty of any parliament on record.
Know what that is? Hope.
November 26, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The two-child cap pushed half of children in larger families into poverty. Today, Labour abolishes it.
I stood for office to stop drawing charts and start changing them. This change will see the biggest drop in child poverty of any parliament on record.
Know what that is? Hope.
I stood for office to stop drawing charts and start changing them. This change will see the biggest drop in child poverty of any parliament on record.
Know what that is? Hope.
Reposted by Ian Boucher
'bRiTaIn NeEdS An ImF bAiLoUt' latest
U.K 30 YEAR GILT YIELD DOWN 9.8 BPS TO 5.23%, IN BIGGEST ONE DAY FALL SINCE APRIL
November 26, 2025 at 4:17 PM
'bRiTaIn NeEdS An ImF bAiLoUt' latest
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Very striking to me that the absence of a government vision is matched by the wider Labour ecosystem - plenty of specific policy ideas, no obvious big picture of what the party should mean in 2025.
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Very striking to me that the absence of a government vision is matched by the wider Labour ecosystem - plenty of specific policy ideas, no obvious big picture of what the party should mean in 2025.
Starmer looks incredibly bored - he really doesn’t like economics does he?
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Starmer looks incredibly bored - he really doesn’t like economics does he?
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Lot of “I thank the member for Blitherdale, here’s £4,500 for hedgehog crossings” in this speech.
Almost seems like Reeves wants to show she listens to beckbenchers
Almost seems like Reeves wants to show she listens to beckbenchers
November 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Lot of “I thank the member for Blitherdale, here’s £4,500 for hedgehog crossings” in this speech.
Almost seems like Reeves wants to show she listens to beckbenchers
Almost seems like Reeves wants to show she listens to beckbenchers
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Governments I think massively overrate the importance of secrecy and surprise - ultimately *your governing record* is not covert, your electoral strategy is not a secret, if a policy is so bad that it will unravel in hours it should not be in the Budget in the first place!
November 26, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Governments I think massively overrate the importance of secrecy and surprise - ultimately *your governing record* is not covert, your electoral strategy is not a secret, if a policy is so bad that it will unravel in hours it should not be in the Budget in the first place!
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Don’t worry folks, the OBR has now removed the document from its website. That should do it…
November 26, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Don’t worry folks, the OBR has now removed the document from its website. That should do it…
Reposted by Ian Boucher
Always the way, isn't it? Graduate from top uni says other people shouldn't aspire to go to university.
The Prime Minister's target – two thirds of young people getting a degree or an apprenticeship – is the right one. Only Labour backs our young people.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
The Prime Minister's target – two thirds of young people getting a degree or an apprenticeship – is the right one. Only Labour backs our young people.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
Reform UK bigwig who went to top university says fewer others should do the same
Reform UK's former chairman calls for "fewer people going to university" after benefiting from a degree from one of the country's most prestigious ones himself
www.mirror.co.uk
November 25, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Always the way, isn't it? Graduate from top uni says other people shouldn't aspire to go to university.
The Prime Minister's target – two thirds of young people getting a degree or an apprenticeship – is the right one. Only Labour backs our young people.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
The Prime Minister's target – two thirds of young people getting a degree or an apprenticeship – is the right one. Only Labour backs our young people.
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
Starmer going into a school to promote free school meals, prompting the kids to do the 6 7 thing before being told that it’s banned in the school is so ‘thick of it’ it hurts. Was he made the watch the zeitgeist tape the day before? Deffo had a sign arranged to be called away urgently.
November 25, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Starmer going into a school to promote free school meals, prompting the kids to do the 6 7 thing before being told that it’s banned in the school is so ‘thick of it’ it hurts. Was he made the watch the zeitgeist tape the day before? Deffo had a sign arranged to be called away urgently.
Reposted by Ian Boucher
My taxes bring all the boys to the yard.
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
November 25, 2025 at 11:55 AM
My taxes bring all the boys to the yard.
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
And they're like "this is bad approach to fiscal policy".
Reposted by Ian Boucher
This isn’t true! Regulated fares have always been set by the government, regardless of operator!
Train fares frozen: not happened for decades.
Bringing rail back into public ownership means we can take action on fares.
Bringing rail back into public ownership means we can take action on fares.
November 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
This isn’t true! Regulated fares have always been set by the government, regardless of operator!
Governments energy policy also seems to be unravelling with electricity prices rising as gas falls. Dear me.
November 21, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Governments energy policy also seems to be unravelling with electricity prices rising as gas falls. Dear me.