Ben Paxton
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Senior Researcher at the @instituteforgov.bsky.social. Views my own.
We've now had several formal pre-budget announcements (following weeks of speculation, which Treasury 'officially' declines to comment on). Our autumn budget live blog has a list of them (+ our piece making the case for a tourist tax back in July)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:51 PM
We've now had several formal pre-budget announcements (following weeks of speculation, which Treasury 'officially' declines to comment on). Our autumn budget live blog has a list of them (+ our piece making the case for a tourist tax back in July)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
In a new departure, we @instituteforgovernment.org.uk are going to be live blogging the Budget all through tomorrow. The live blog is now live and we will be sharing our pre-Budget thoughts there, followed by responses once we hear the CX's speech www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
In a new departure, we @instituteforgovernment.org.uk are going to be live blogging the Budget all through tomorrow. The live blog is now live and we will be sharing our pre-Budget thoughts there, followed by responses once we hear the CX's speech www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
Great to see public sector pensions being discussed. But I think the key issue is are they actually good value for money for recruiting + retaining the public sector workforce we want? Or might giving people flexibility to switch some pension for pay be better value?
www.thetimes.com/article/77af...
www.thetimes.com/article/77af...
We need to put a stop to unfair public sector pensions — here’s how
The incredibly generous schemes are unfair and unaffordable and there is no justification for continuing to offer them
www.thetimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Great to see public sector pensions being discussed. But I think the key issue is are they actually good value for money for recruiting + retaining the public sector workforce we want? Or might giving people flexibility to switch some pension for pay be better value?
www.thetimes.com/article/77af...
www.thetimes.com/article/77af...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 9:38 AM
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
A chart that surprised me: NHS staff absences for mental health reasons are at record highs, above pandemic levels
Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016
Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016
Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
November 20, 2025 at 9:34 AM
A chart that surprised me: NHS staff absences for mental health reasons are at record highs, above pandemic levels
Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016
Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016
Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
New comment from us on the six big things we at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk will be looking out for at next week's budget
With less than a week to go until Rachel Reeves delivers her 2025 budget, the IfG public finances team have set out six key questions they will be looking for the chancellor to answer - from fiscal and tax strategies to cost of living www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...
Rachel Reeves’s budget 2025: The IfG’s six things to look out for | Institute for Government
What can we expect from the chancellor’s second budget?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 1:10 PM
New comment from us on the six big things we at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk will be looking out for at next week's budget
Reposted by Ben Paxton
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable.
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
November 19, 2025 at 7:03 AM
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable.
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
Reposted by Ben Paxton
In two weeks' time, Rachel Reeves will deliver her second budget as chancellor.
Join us online on 26 November for our instant reaction to the chancellor's plan for the economy - with @danhaile.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
Join us online on 26 November for our instant reaction to the chancellor's plan for the economy - with @danhaile.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
November 12, 2025 at 11:59 AM
In two weeks' time, Rachel Reeves will deliver her second budget as chancellor.
Join us online on 26 November for our instant reaction to the chancellor's plan for the economy - with @danhaile.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
Join us online on 26 November for our instant reaction to the chancellor's plan for the economy - with @danhaile.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
An interesting piece which (rightly in my view) puts policy uncertainty front and centre. But I'm less convinced by the proposed policy prescription: if we kept a 2nd forecast, but don't formally assess rule compliance, what stops everyone else just reading off the OBR spreadsheet?
November 11, 2025 at 9:25 AM
An interesting piece which (rightly in my view) puts policy uncertainty front and centre. But I'm less convinced by the proposed policy prescription: if we kept a 2nd forecast, but don't formally assess rule compliance, what stops everyone else just reading off the OBR spreadsheet?
Reposted by Ben Paxton
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
NEW from me on why changes to public sector pensions should be on the table. But politicians must say how they'll cover big upfront costs, and focus on how remuneration can best support the workforce needed to improve public services - not on cuts
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/publ...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/publ...
Public sector pensions reforms should focus on workforce recruitment and retention | Institute for Government
There is a strong case for looking at reforms to public sector pensions.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 3:55 PM
NEW from me on why changes to public sector pensions should be on the table. But politicians must say how they'll cover big upfront costs, and focus on how remuneration can best support the workforce needed to improve public services - not on cuts
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/publ...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/publ...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
"Yet unpopularity — even unpopularity as deep and bitter as that which Starmer is currently experiencing — need not be terminal, provided his MPs have faith in his plan and his vision"
@stephenkb.bsky.social smashes out brilliant points I am hoping to publish at greater length 1/
on.ft.com/478WcW7
@stephenkb.bsky.social smashes out brilliant points I am hoping to publish at greater length 1/
on.ft.com/478WcW7
Starmer needs to get serious about governing — and quick
The prime minister has to change or his party will seek a change of its own
on.ft.com
October 25, 2025 at 8:22 AM
"Yet unpopularity — even unpopularity as deep and bitter as that which Starmer is currently experiencing — need not be terminal, provided his MPs have faith in his plan and his vision"
@stephenkb.bsky.social smashes out brilliant points I am hoping to publish at greater length 1/
on.ft.com/478WcW7
@stephenkb.bsky.social smashes out brilliant points I am hoping to publish at greater length 1/
on.ft.com/478WcW7
Reposted by Ben Paxton
Good comment from @timdurrant.bsky.social - DSIT has struggled to become the "digital centre of government" and faced a huge culture shift (it was mainly policy & science and engineering staff before GDS moved there from Cabinet Office). (1/2)
Niche post: the government has announced that the Cabinet Office, rather than the Govt Digital Service (part of the Dept for Science and Tech, DSIT), will run the Digital ID programme
When Labour came in they moved much of govt's central digital capability to DSIT...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
When Labour came in they moved much of govt's central digital capability to DSIT...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Machinery of government: digital ID
The government has announced a machinery of government change
www.gov.uk
October 23, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Good comment from @timdurrant.bsky.social - DSIT has struggled to become the "digital centre of government" and faced a huge culture shift (it was mainly policy & science and engineering staff before GDS moved there from Cabinet Office). (1/2)
Reposted by Ben Paxton
NEW REPORT Criminal justice is coming apart at the seams. Police, criminal courts & prisons can’t cope with the level of demand and performance keeps spiralling downwards. Early positive steps from the government won't be enough to turn things around
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Performance Tracker 2025: Criminal justice system | Institute for Government
The government must act to avoid the justice system returning to the crisis point seen when Labour entered office, or worse.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
October 23, 2025 at 6:44 AM
NEW REPORT Criminal justice is coming apart at the seams. Police, criminal courts & prisons can’t cope with the level of demand and performance keeps spiralling downwards. Early positive steps from the government won't be enough to turn things around
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Shifting to a more preventative approach rather than just meeting acute demand in these services is vital. But this shows we have long way to go to get to where we were 10-15 years ago. Great analysis from Stuart and the team
The balance between acute and preventative services has shifted dramatically. E.g. children's services
Spending on services like children's centres is down 79% in real terms, while acute services (e.g. looked after children) is up 71%
That contributes to rising acute demand in the long-term
Spending on services like children's centres is down 79% in real terms, while acute services (e.g. looked after children) is up 71%
That contributes to rising acute demand in the long-term
October 16, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Shifting to a more preventative approach rather than just meeting acute demand in these services is vital. But this shows we have long way to go to get to where we were 10-15 years ago. Great analysis from Stuart and the team
Good to see Reeves defending the importance of SR settlements (where changes should be avoided). But disappointing if this means using highly optimistic assumptions re. future tech efficiencies (eg £45bn) to pencil in spending cuts beyond the SR period rather than confronting the need for tax reform
October 16, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Good to see Reeves defending the importance of SR settlements (where changes should be avoided). But disappointing if this means using highly optimistic assumptions re. future tech efficiencies (eg £45bn) to pencil in spending cuts beyond the SR period rather than confronting the need for tax reform
Reposted by Ben Paxton
The point of a multi-year spending review and regular SR cycle is to provide stability. That stability allows frontline public services to make long-term decisions that will deliver better outcomes and VfM. It's a big failure of policymaking if spending decisions are being reopened 4 months later
Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget
Speaking exclusively to Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates, Rachel Reeves says Brexit, austerity, and the Liz Truss mini-budget have all played a role in damaging Britain's economy - as she prep...
news.sky.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:46 AM
The point of a multi-year spending review and regular SR cycle is to provide stability. That stability allows frontline public services to make long-term decisions that will deliver better outcomes and VfM. It's a big failure of policymaking if spending decisions are being reopened 4 months later
Really looking forward to chatting with this brilliant panel about how to make sure pay and pensions help attract and keep the high-quality public sector workerforce the government needs
Should public sector pay and pensions be reformed?
Join us at #Lab25 at 15:45 to hear from @timleunig.bsky.social @fdagensec.bsky.social @fdaunion.bsky.social @gemmatetlow.bsky.social, Paul Whiteman and @drbenpaxton.bsky.social - Clyde Room, ACC www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/ifg-la...
Join us at #Lab25 at 15:45 to hear from @timleunig.bsky.social @fdagensec.bsky.social @fdaunion.bsky.social @gemmatetlow.bsky.social, Paul Whiteman and @drbenpaxton.bsky.social - Clyde Room, ACC www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/ifg-la...
September 30, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Really looking forward to chatting with this brilliant panel about how to make sure pay and pensions help attract and keep the high-quality public sector workerforce the government needs
Reposted by Ben Paxton
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government
New report by @njdavies.bsky.social and @drbenpaxton.bsky.social on how public procurement could support delivery of mission-led government, and the key barriers to this.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
New report by @njdavies.bsky.social and @drbenpaxton.bsky.social on how public procurement could support delivery of mission-led government, and the key barriers to this.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
September 26, 2025 at 4:04 PM
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government
New report by @njdavies.bsky.social and @drbenpaxton.bsky.social on how public procurement could support delivery of mission-led government, and the key barriers to this.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
New report by @njdavies.bsky.social and @drbenpaxton.bsky.social on how public procurement could support delivery of mission-led government, and the key barriers to this.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
IfG report says a “bias for the status quo” often prompts government to stick with existing approaches that “guarantee poor performance”, rather than taking a chance on change
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
'Coherence is needed': Government urged to leverage its £400bn procurement bill to aid missions drive
Think tank says better approaches to spending – including backing the civil service to be less risk-averse – can deliver results
www.civilserviceworld.com
September 26, 2025 at 12:36 PM
IfG report says a “bias for the status quo” often prompts government to stick with existing approaches that “guarantee poor performance”, rather than taking a chance on change
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
This interview is so much worse than the headline lets on
September 25, 2025 at 2:32 PM
This interview is so much worse than the headline lets on
Procurement is massively underrated as an opportunity for improvement, and where a mission-led approach could make a difference.
Our NEW REPORT explores why this change is hard, and how procurement should be used to shape markets + drive innovation🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Our NEW REPORT explores why this change is hard, and how procurement should be used to shape markets + drive innovation🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
September 25, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Procurement is massively underrated as an opportunity for improvement, and where a mission-led approach could make a difference.
Our NEW REPORT explores why this change is hard, and how procurement should be used to shape markets + drive innovation🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Our NEW REPORT explores why this change is hard, and how procurement should be used to shape markets + drive innovation🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Ben Paxton
NEW REPORT: @instituteforgovernment.org.uk finds that confused missions, pervasive risk aversion, poor data quality, insufficient commericial capability, and a failure to focus on outcomes means that govt is failing to make the most of £400bn+ a year it spends on procurement
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
September 25, 2025 at 8:13 AM
NEW REPORT: @instituteforgovernment.org.uk finds that confused missions, pervasive risk aversion, poor data quality, insufficient commericial capability, and a failure to focus on outcomes means that govt is failing to make the most of £400bn+ a year it spends on procurement
Making this taskforce 'internal' rather than independent (unlike e.g. sentencing) was a choice, presumably for greater control over recs. So is this just pitch rolling? Or evidence that an 'internal' review of controversial policy doesn't necessarily mean control?
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Cabinet ministers to recommend lifting two-child benefit cap
Starmer to be urged by taskforce before the budget to make the change — but it will cost £3bn a year when Rachel Reeves is trying to plug a spending gap
www.thetimes.com
September 24, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Making this taskforce 'internal' rather than independent (unlike e.g. sentencing) was a choice, presumably for greater control over recs. So is this just pitch rolling? Or evidence that an 'internal' review of controversial policy doesn't necessarily mean control?
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Government spends >£400bn each year (!!!) buying stuff from the private and voluntary sectors. With a tricky budget coming up and Starmer's focus on delivery, our new report sets out the role procurement can play in delivering mission-led government
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
September 24, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Government spends >£400bn each year (!!!) buying stuff from the private and voluntary sectors. With a tricky budget coming up and Starmer's focus on delivery, our new report sets out the role procurement can play in delivering mission-led government
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...