Gemma Tetlow
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gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow
@gemmatetlow.bsky.social
4.2K followers 61 following 59 posts

Chief Economist, Institute for Government

Formerly Economics Correspondent at the Financial Times and Programme Director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies

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Economics 44%
Political science 15%
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gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 9h
Do follow along for great insights from @jillongovt.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social @drbenpaxton.bsky.social @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social and @martha-ford.bsky.social

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 9h
In a new departure, we @instituteforgovernment.org.uk are going to be live blogging the Budget all through tomorrow. The live blog is now live and we will be sharing our pre-Budget thoughts there, followed by responses once we hear the CX's speech www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow, Jill Rutter

instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 9h
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025 🚨

As Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures, what formal announcements have we had so far and what can we expect in the next 24 hours?

Follow our live blog for our analysis of the chancellor's plans
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 1d
Work with us! 🚨 We are looking for a Partnerships Manager to lead the business function within our partnerships team.

⏰ Applications close on Monday 8 December at 11:00.

Find out more about the role and how to apply www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/about-us/car...
A job advert. Partnerships Manager Join our team and help us make government more effective! Permanent position starting as soon as notice period allows. Salary: £48,000 to £52,000, depending on skills and experience Deadline: Monday 8 December, 11:00am www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/current-vacancies/ partnerships-manager

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Gemma Tetlow, Anand Menon

ukandeu.bsky.social
UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 1d
‼️Budget week is finally here, which means one thing...

🤓Our economics panel will be meeting to unpack what's in the Autumn Statement

With @anandmenon.bsky.social, @jillongovt.bsky.social, @jdportes.bsky.social, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social & @benchu.bsky.social

Sign up👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Assessing the budget - UK in a changing Europe
Join our expert economics panel as they dissect the details of the Autumn Statement.
ukandeu.ac.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 4d
What are the legal implications of Labour’s new asylum reforms?

Former permanent secretary of the Government Legal Department @sirjjkc.bsky.social examines some of the main legal implications of the proposals www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
What are the legal implications of Labour’s new asylum reforms? | Institute for Government
Some of the government’s proposals are thin on details, others are likely to be tested in the courts.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 4d
NEW REPORT | Combined epidemiological and economic modelling: How can government better prepare for future pandemics?

@gemmatetlow.bsky.social @shaina-sangha.bsky.social reveal how the government needs to improve its use of modelling.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

shaina-sangha.bsky.social
Shaina Sangha @shaina-sangha.bsky.social · 4d
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social and I have a new @ukri.org-funded @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/🧵
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 4d
Thank you to colleagues @imperial-jameel.bsky.social and @lshtm.bsky.social for their support on this work, and to @ukri.org for funding. Thanks also to the many experts who spoke to us and to IfG colleagues for reviewing (and improving!) earlier drafts of the paper.

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 4d
Govt needs to 1️⃣establish a network of external epi-econ researchers 2️⃣strengthen X-govt governance for pandemics 3️⃣develop at least one in-house model 4️⃣create dedicated research funding streams for pandemics 5️⃣create formal structures ahead of time for epi-econ evidence synthesis at the top of govt

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 4d
There are challenges for govt using these models: analysis is siloed in depts between econ and epi; challenge handling complexity or uncertainty in analysis; govt could ‘use and abuse’ models by over relying on them for perfect solutions in complex scenarios.

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 4d
Better use of more developed epi-econ models could help next time. Can be used as decision-making tools surfacing trade-offs during pandemics. Also for prep, testing policies under diff scenarios, identifying trade-offs, inflection points & unintended consequences & valuing preparatory investments.

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 4d
I know this might sound niche but one key problem during Covid was a failure to join up public health expertise and economics - too often this was seen as a straight trade-off, rather than interacting systems where decisions in one feed back to the other.

Reposted by Jill Rutter

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 4d
Hot on the heels of yesterday's Covid inquiry report on decision making, @shaina-sangha.bsky.social and I have a new report out today looking at how combined epidemiological-economic modelling could help government better prepare for future pandemics www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

drhannahwhite.bsky.social
Hannah White @drhannahwhite.bsky.social · 4d
Looking forward to speaking at @raeng.org.uk Policy Fellowships Showcase on Monday! Do sign up to join us!

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow, Jill Rutter

rebeccamckee.bsky.social
Rebecca McKee @rebeccamckee.bsky.social · 4d
This afternoon my colleagues at @instituteforgovernment.org.uk will be discussing the second covid inquiry report. Join us online at lunchtime & bring your questions - see you there!

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/covid-...
The Covid Inquiry: What does Module II say about government decision making and political governance? | Institute for Government
Join our IfG experts webinar to unpack the Covid Inquiry's findings and explore their implications for future governance.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Gemma Tetlow, Anand Menon

ukandeu.bsky.social
UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 5d
📆 ONE WEEK TO GO 📆

🍂 Once again our expert economics panel are meeting to dissect the details of the chancellor's Autumn Statement

With @anandmenon.bsky.social, @jillongovt.bsky.social, @jdportes.bsky.social, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social & @benchu.bsky.social

Sign up👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Assessing the budget - UK in a changing Europe
Join our expert economics panel as they dissect the details of the Autumn Statement.
ukandeu.ac.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

sophiemetcalfe.bsky.social
Sophie Metcalfe @sophiemetcalfe.bsky.social · 5d
NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The opportunity gap facing boys from low-income families at age 5 and beyond | Institute for Government
Early attainment gaps mean some boys don't just start behind, they stay behind.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Gemma Tetlow, Simon Wren‐Lewis , and 1 more

njdavies.bsky.social
Nick Davies @njdavies.bsky.social · 6d
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable.

It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
RAG table showing ratings for 9 public services. It includes the following summaries for progress since the 2024 election: General practice - Progress on salaried GPs, but no steps taken to make partnership more attractive Hospitals - Government has set out high-level ambitions and reduced competing priorities, but no detail of implementation Adult social care - Largely ignored. Ending the care visa route without a workable solution for Fair Pay Agreements could cause workforce shortages Children's social care - Government has set out a clear and ambitious vision for reform and has backed it with relatively generous funding Homelessness - Early signs are encouraging, but government has yet to set out its homelessness strategy Schools - Government's plan to reduce inequalities in schools and tackle teacher shortages are unclear, and the crisis in SEND services casts a long shadow Police - Government has made limited progress in increasing neighbourhood officer numbers and has yet to announce details of planned reforms Criminal Courts - Increasing court sitting days was welcome, if done too late, but the government has yet to announce a longer-term plan Prisons - Rapid action addressed the immediate population crisis, but there has been limited progress towards a longer-term solution

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

danneidle.bsky.social
Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 12d
Here's a chart of the marginal tax rate for someone with two kids. They pay 53% tax on every £ they earn between £60k and £80k. 62% on every £ they earn between £100k and £125k.

9% more if they've a student loan

This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 13d
In two weeks' time, Rachel Reeves will deliver her second budget as chancellor.

Join us online on 26 November for our instant reaction to the chancellor's plan for the economy - with @danhaile.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @gilesyb.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 18d
I discuss this - and other questions about how chancellors can roll the pitch for Budget tax changes - in this week's @instituteforgovernment.org.uk podcast, with @jillongovt.bsky.social and former SpAds Giles Winn and Stewart Wood www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/rach...
Rachel Reeves and the art of pitch rolling the budget | Institute for Government
Former Treasury advisers Stewart Wood and Giles Winn reveal how chancellors prepare the ground for budget day.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Thomas Pope, Gemma Tetlow, Jill Rutter

sammacrory.bsky.social
Sam Macrory @sammacrory.bsky.social · 18d
Has Rachel Reeves rolled the budget pitch?

And how did former chancellors manage expectations?

Fascinating @instituteforgovernment.org.uk podcast with @stewartwood.bsky.social Giles Winn @gemmatetlow.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/rach...
Rachel Reeves and the art of pitch rolling the budget | Institute for Government
Former Treasury advisers Stewart Wood and Giles Winn reveal how chancellors prepare the ground for budget day.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Gemma Tetlow

ukandeu.bsky.social
UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 18d
🚨 NEW EVENT 🚨

We've assembled our experts economics panel to dissect the details of the Chancellor's budget

💻 Online
📆 Thurs 27 Nov, 1pm GMT

With @jillongovt.bsky.social, @jdportes.bsky.social, @gemmatetlow.bsky.social, @benchu.bsky.social & @anandmenon.bsky.social

ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Assessing the budget - UK in a changing Europe
Join our expert economics panel as they dissect the details of the Autumn Statement.
ukandeu.ac.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow, Jill Rutter

instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 19d
Cross-party agreement can create political space for tax reform

It is time to take the political heat out of attempts to reform the tax system, says @gemmatetlow.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/cros...
Cross-party agreement can create political space for tax reform | Institute for Government
It is time to take the political heat out of attempts to reform the tax system.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 19d
For too long, growth-enhancing tax reforms have been prevented by the intense political heat that surrounds any such changes. This new report should help create space for this and future governments to make much-needed improvements www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/cros...
Cross-party agreement can create political space for tax reform | Institute for Government
It is time to take the political heat out of attempts to reform the tax system.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · 19d
A very interesting new report, coordinated by @centaxuk.bsky.social, is co-authored by nine think tanks from across the political spectrum and sets out 7 packages of tax reform that all agree would make the UK tax system "fairer, more effective and more pro-growth” centax.org.uk/tax-reforms-...
Tax Reforms for Growth | CenTax
centax.org.uk

Reposted by Thomas Pope, Gemma Tetlow

drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Ben Paxton @drbenpaxton.bsky.social · Oct 16
Guardian article here: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

And top tips on how to do tax reform from @gemmatetlow.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social and @jillongovt.bsky.social here:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The 2025 budget and beyond: How Rachel Reeves can approach tax reform to help drive growth | Institute for Government
A big autumn approaches for the chancellor.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

drbenpaxton.bsky.social
Ben Paxton @drbenpaxton.bsky.social · Oct 16
Good to see Reeves defending the importance of SR settlements (where changes should be avoided). But disappointing if this means using highly optimistic assumptions re. future tech efficiencies (eg £45bn) to pencil in spending cuts beyond the SR period rather than confronting the need for tax reform

Reposted by Gemma Tetlow

fdaunion.bsky.social
FDA Union @fdaunion.bsky.social · Sep 30
IfG Chief Economist @gemmatetlow.bsky.social outlines that currently pension contributions make up around 20% of the total public sector remuneration package, compared to 8% in the private sector. Is this the most effective balance and does there need to be flexibility? #Lab25