ElectionCord
@electioncord.com
US Political Consulting & Analysis Through a Demographic Lens
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NEW: Our generic ballot averages, complete with demographic averages, are now OUT! In addition to the overall average, we also have party registration, 2024 vote, ideology, ethnicity, age, and education.
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
I said this about two weeks ago, and the answer seems to be that it was more of a flash in the pan. It appears that a few low quality polls, and outliers skewed it. This just goes to show that polling averages (even ours) may not be perfect.
December 24, 2025 at 4:09 AM
I said this about two weeks ago, and the answer seems to be that it was more of a flash in the pan. It appears that a few low quality polls, and outliers skewed it. This just goes to show that polling averages (even ours) may not be perfect.
Kind of ironically, one of the things people dislike the most about President Trump is when he renames stuff. 2/3rds of people say they disapprove of him renaming the Kennedy Center, according to @today.yougov.com
December 23, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Kind of ironically, one of the things people dislike the most about President Trump is when he renames stuff. 2/3rds of people say they disapprove of him renaming the Kennedy Center, according to @today.yougov.com
This chart shows two things: the shift between 20-24 President on the X axis, and the shift between 24 President and 25 Governor on the Y axis. Generally, the areas with the biggest shifts from 2020 to 2024 (To Trump) also had the biggest shifts from 2024 to 2025 (to Dems)
December 22, 2025 at 11:49 PM
This chart shows two things: the shift between 20-24 President on the X axis, and the shift between 24 President and 25 Governor on the Y axis. Generally, the areas with the biggest shifts from 2020 to 2024 (To Trump) also had the biggest shifts from 2024 to 2025 (to Dems)
Here's the same chart, but with VA and NJ Governor instead. For the most part, VA saw even shifts throughout every area, while NJ saw bigger shifts among non-white areas, and smaller shifts among white areas.
December 22, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Here's the same chart, but with VA and NJ Governor instead. For the most part, VA saw even shifts throughout every area, while NJ saw bigger shifts among non-white areas, and smaller shifts among white areas.
Here's a comparison that shows the shift between 2024 President and Prop 50, and the White % of each 100K district in California... Pretty clear correlation that shows something that also happened in NJ and VA. Dems had huge gains with minorities in 2025, similar to 2020 levels.
December 22, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Here's a comparison that shows the shift between 2024 President and Prop 50, and the White % of each 100K district in California... Pretty clear correlation that shows something that also happened in NJ and VA. Dems had huge gains with minorities in 2025, similar to 2020 levels.
Reposted by ElectionCord
Here is the party registration average in polls from @electioncord.com (note: this is not the actual generic ballot, which is around D+4).
This suggests that samples have not gotten much more Democratic than 2024, including after the 2025 elections.
This suggests that samples have not gotten much more Democratic than 2024, including after the 2025 elections.
December 22, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Here is the party registration average in polls from @electioncord.com (note: this is not the actual generic ballot, which is around D+4).
This suggests that samples have not gotten much more Democratic than 2024, including after the 2025 elections.
This suggests that samples have not gotten much more Democratic than 2024, including after the 2025 elections.
Here's the Sacramento Metro area, using our Tabula America Index, found on ElectionCord.com. The main areas of note are the non-educated, white portions in the northern suburbs, which tend to be more Rep, and the less white south & eastern portions of the city, which tend to be more Dem.
December 21, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Here's the Sacramento Metro area, using our Tabula America Index, found on ElectionCord.com. The main areas of note are the non-educated, white portions in the northern suburbs, which tend to be more Rep, and the less white south & eastern portions of the city, which tend to be more Dem.
I'd really like to believe this, but this is also AtlasIntel, I would take this with a couple dozen grains of salt
AtlasIntel poll | 12/15-12/19
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 54.4%
🟥Republican 38.4%
—
President Trump approval
Disapprove 59.6%
Approve 39.3%
atlasintel.org/polls/genera...
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 54.4%
🟥Republican 38.4%
—
President Trump approval
Disapprove 59.6%
Approve 39.3%
atlasintel.org/polls/genera...
AtlasIntel
We develop big data solutions that empower decision-making, strategic planning, and risk management.
atlasintel.org
December 19, 2025 at 11:14 PM
I'd really like to believe this, but this is also AtlasIntel, I would take this with a couple dozen grains of salt
How do people think the economy has been since Trump was inaugurated? In short: not good. It started out not good, and it hasn't gotten much better, with around 70% of people consistently saying the economy is poor. (1/2)
December 19, 2025 at 10:15 PM
How do people think the economy has been since Trump was inaugurated? In short: not good. It started out not good, and it hasn't gotten much better, with around 70% of people consistently saying the economy is poor. (1/2)
There have been two polls recently (Quinnipiac and Fox News) that have asked if Americans would like to see a ban on social media for kids under 16, like the one in Australia. Both polls showed that a strong majority, 61% and 64% respectively, would like to see a ban. What do you think about this?
December 18, 2025 at 8:50 PM
There have been two polls recently (Quinnipiac and Fox News) that have asked if Americans would like to see a ban on social media for kids under 16, like the one in Australia. Both polls showed that a strong majority, 61% and 64% respectively, would like to see a ban. What do you think about this?
One of my pet peeves is when pollsters break down income like this, with $50,000 being the dividing number. The main issue is that only a quarter of Americans are under $50K household income, so it's not an accurate dividing line. You probably need more groups than this anyways!
December 17, 2025 at 8:10 PM
One of my pet peeves is when pollsters break down income like this, with $50,000 being the dividing number. The main issue is that only a quarter of Americans are under $50K household income, so it's not an accurate dividing line. You probably need more groups than this anyways!
Alexa, give me something Bluesky will like
Should be most of the vote in now for Kentucky's #SD35 (Harris+5) special election:
Gary Clemons (D)- 72.6%
Calvin Leach (R)- 25.1%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 2.3%
It's an over 40 point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats!
Gary Clemons (D)- 72.6%
Calvin Leach (R)- 25.1%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 2.3%
It's an over 40 point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats!
December 17, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Alexa, give me something Bluesky will like
I don't know what's funnier, that Clarity Campaign Labs asked about Santa Claus's favorability, or that a few people said they have an unfavorable opinion of him
December 16, 2025 at 7:03 PM
I don't know what's funnier, that Clarity Campaign Labs asked about Santa Claus's favorability, or that a few people said they have an unfavorable opinion of him
This is our Generic Ballot average by party registration. as of 12/15/25. One thing to note is that Democrats are winning independents by 13%, despite only being up around 4% as a whole. (Thread)
December 15, 2025 at 10:24 PM
This is our Generic Ballot average by party registration. as of 12/15/25. One thing to note is that Democrats are winning independents by 13%, despite only being up around 4% as a whole. (Thread)
Reposted by ElectionCord
Really enjoy the people in the comments who don’t realize people in fact do switch their votes like what happened in 2024 and then in 2025 and that in a red leaning state you do in fact need to win over some Republicans
Texas Dems:
"Who'd be more successful in mobilizing Dem-leaning non-voting Texans to turn out for them?"
Crockett: 53%
Talarico: 34%
"Who'd be more successful in convincing Texans who regularly vote GOP to vote for them?"
Talarico: 58%
Crockett: 29%
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
"Who'd be more successful in mobilizing Dem-leaning non-voting Texans to turn out for them?"
Crockett: 53%
Talarico: 34%
"Who'd be more successful in convincing Texans who regularly vote GOP to vote for them?"
Talarico: 58%
Crockett: 29%
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
December 14, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Really enjoy the people in the comments who don’t realize people in fact do switch their votes like what happened in 2024 and then in 2025 and that in a red leaning state you do in fact need to win over some Republicans
Respectfully, what is this question
December 14, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Respectfully, what is this question
This poll is pretty interesting, but also confirms certain assumptions we have had about candidates like Crockett and Talarico. Even if Talarico might be the more progressive candidate, he also is seen as the candidate with more crossover appeal to moderates and conservatives. (1/2)
Texas - Democratic Senate Polling Leads:
All: 🔵 Crockett +8
Men: 🟢 Talarico +10
Women: 🔵 Crockett: +21
18-34 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +29
35-44 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +9
55+ Year Olds: 🔵 Crockett +25
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
All: 🔵 Crockett +8
Men: 🟢 Talarico +10
Women: 🔵 Crockett: +21
18-34 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +29
35-44 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +9
55+ Year Olds: 🔵 Crockett +25
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
December 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
This poll is pretty interesting, but also confirms certain assumptions we have had about candidates like Crockett and Talarico. Even if Talarico might be the more progressive candidate, he also is seen as the candidate with more crossover appeal to moderates and conservatives. (1/2)
Reposted by ElectionCord
A nice figure by @gelliottmorris.com summarizing Trump approval by respondent issue priority. Trump is net positive on issues that only 19% of respondents rank as top priority (border, crime, immigration).
December 12, 2025 at 8:10 PM
A nice figure by @gelliottmorris.com summarizing Trump approval by respondent issue priority. Trump is net positive on issues that only 19% of respondents rank as top priority (border, crime, immigration).
Reposted by ElectionCord
Indiana’s Senate has voted AGAINST the GOP gerrymander that’d have locked in a 9-0 map.
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
December 11, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Indiana’s Senate has voted AGAINST the GOP gerrymander that’d have locked in a 9-0 map.
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
Reposted by ElectionCord
Declines in Trump favorables for non-college Whites are arguably even more dangerous for GOP seats than nonwhites.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
December 11, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Declines in Trump favorables for non-college Whites are arguably even more dangerous for GOP seats than nonwhites.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
What can you conclude from this? I think generally, younger and poorer people tend to be more unsure of where their support will lie, while older and wealthier people will tend to be a more concrete voting block. Keep in mind not only is D vs R relevant, but voting vs not voting is just as relevant.
In the latest YouGov survey, they asked about how participants will vote in 2026. I thought it would be interesting to look at what percentage of each demographic chose something other than Dems/Reps. Thought the results were pretty interesting, especially that 18-29 number.
December 11, 2025 at 7:45 PM
What can you conclude from this? I think generally, younger and poorer people tend to be more unsure of where their support will lie, while older and wealthier people will tend to be a more concrete voting block. Keep in mind not only is D vs R relevant, but voting vs not voting is just as relevant.
In the latest YouGov survey, they asked about how participants will vote in 2026. I thought it would be interesting to look at what percentage of each demographic chose something other than Dems/Reps. Thought the results were pretty interesting, especially that 18-29 number.
December 11, 2025 at 5:50 AM
In the latest YouGov survey, they asked about how participants will vote in 2026. I thought it would be interesting to look at what percentage of each demographic chose something other than Dems/Reps. Thought the results were pretty interesting, especially that 18-29 number.
Reposted by ElectionCord
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
December 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
December 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️