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What to Expect From the TN-07 Special Election – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We quickly go over the election in TN-7 election tomorrow, look at the demographics of the district, and how that may play a factor in the final result.
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
Our Generic Ballot averages should be released tomorrow, but here's a sneak peek at the result by age, compared to Trump's approval. Of note is how much young people are still voting Democratic, and how Dems have a chance to win people 65 and over. (1/2)
December 7, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Our Generic Ballot averages should be released tomorrow, but here's a sneak peek at the result by age, compared to Trump's approval. Of note is how much young people are still voting Democratic, and how Dems have a chance to win people 65 and over. (1/2)
I'm working on our generic ballot averages, and I noticed something interesting, independents are considerably more likely to either answer unsure or not voting when asked about how they will vote in 2026.
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
December 5, 2025 at 10:46 PM
I'm working on our generic ballot averages, and I noticed something interesting, independents are considerably more likely to either answer unsure or not voting when asked about how they will vote in 2026.
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
They've lost Rasmussen (honestly this is one of the biggest warning signs I've seen for Trump)
Trump Approval Polling:
Disapprove: 55%
Approve: 44%
Rasmussen / Dec 2, 2025
(Republican Pollster)
Disapprove: 55%
Approve: 44%
Rasmussen / Dec 2, 2025
(Republican Pollster)
December 4, 2025 at 8:26 PM
They've lost Rasmussen (honestly this is one of the biggest warning signs I've seen for Trump)
Reposted by ElectionCord
Two thoughts with this poll shared by @purrtah.bsky.social:
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
December 4, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Two thoughts with this poll shared by @purrtah.bsky.social:
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
Reposted by ElectionCord
It's possible that in 2026 the GOP bombs with poorer/less-educated voters while holding up decently with rich ones.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
December 3, 2025 at 11:06 PM
It's possible that in 2026 the GOP bombs with poorer/less-educated voters while holding up decently with rich ones.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
Trump only won this seat by 13% in 2024. If Democrats can have a similar overperformance here as in TN-7, they would be within 1% or tied...
apparently Nancy Mace is considering an early retirement like MTG www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
December 3, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Trump only won this seat by 13% in 2024. If Democrats can have a similar overperformance here as in TN-7, they would be within 1% or tied...
Hey Democrats, save this for the future, along with all the other times he's called affordability fraudulent (for some reason). What does he even mean by this, is the word itself a con job?
December 3, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Hey Democrats, save this for the future, along with all the other times he's called affordability fraudulent (for some reason). What does he even mean by this, is the word itself a con job?
Assuming though that there's about a D+13? shift, something that's actually been kind of typical in special elections, that would imply about a D+11 environment... I expect something close to D+8, closer to 2018, but the last time there was a D+11 house margin, Dems won 257 seats in 2008...
Here's some historical results in Tennessee's 7th district, along with the results from today. What I want to specifically point out is how many people voted, and the swing from 2024 to now. This shift can't be dismissed because of special election low turnout... It was close to 2018 levels!
December 3, 2025 at 4:49 AM
Assuming though that there's about a D+13? shift, something that's actually been kind of typical in special elections, that would imply about a D+11 environment... I expect something close to D+8, closer to 2018, but the last time there was a D+11 house margin, Dems won 257 seats in 2008...
Here's some historical results in Tennessee's 7th district, along with the results from today. What I want to specifically point out is how many people voted, and the swing from 2024 to now. This shift can't be dismissed because of special election low turnout... It was close to 2018 levels!
December 3, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Here's some historical results in Tennessee's 7th district, along with the results from today. What I want to specifically point out is how many people voted, and the swing from 2024 to now. This shift can't be dismissed because of special election low turnout... It was close to 2018 levels!
Beyn did well enough in Davidson and Clarksville, but rurals and Williamson County just weren't good enough for her. Williamson County in particular is kind of baffling, as it's the kind of county that you would expect to have big shifts left... Either way, still should end up R+5-10%
December 3, 2025 at 2:39 AM
Beyn did well enough in Davidson and Clarksville, but rurals and Williamson County just weren't good enough for her. Williamson County in particular is kind of baffling, as it's the kind of county that you would expect to have big shifts left... Either way, still should end up R+5-10%
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December 3, 2025 at 1:03 AM
JOIN OUR DISCORD NOW! We're following the results from TN-7 live, and every update that happens.
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Ultimately, I think it's not a 0% chance that Democrats can flip this seat tonight, but it will be very difficult. We are predicting that it will be a Republican victory, somewhere between 5-10%. The main issue is that the demographics aren't super favorable for huge shifts in special elections.
Some big swings toward Democrats this year, but 22 points in Tennessee may be too far of a leap.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/u...
December 2, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Ultimately, I think it's not a 0% chance that Democrats can flip this seat tonight, but it will be very difficult. We are predicting that it will be a Republican victory, somewhere between 5-10%. The main issue is that the demographics aren't super favorable for huge shifts in special elections.
Reposted by ElectionCord
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We quickly go over the election in TN-7 election tomorrow, look at the demographics of the district, and how that may play a factor in the final result.
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
What to Expect From the TN-07 Special Election – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
December 1, 2025 at 7:11 PM
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We quickly go over the election in TN-7 election tomorrow, look at the demographics of the district, and how that may play a factor in the final result.
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
Honestly, the only way independents can consistently win anyways is if the system changes, so that's what they should be running on, electoral reform. As it stands, if they just try to run as centrists they won't do all too well, they can overperform in certain situations though I guess
Leveraging the power of artificial intelligence to elect House independents who will side with Republicans on literally every issue.
December 1, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Honestly, the only way independents can consistently win anyways is if the system changes, so that's what they should be running on, electoral reform. As it stands, if they just try to run as centrists they won't do all too well, they can overperform in certain situations though I guess
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We quickly go over the election in TN-7 election tomorrow, look at the demographics of the district, and how that may play a factor in the final result.
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
What to Expect From the TN-07 Special Election – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
December 1, 2025 at 7:11 PM
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We quickly go over the election in TN-7 election tomorrow, look at the demographics of the district, and how that may play a factor in the final result.
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
LINK: electioncord.com/what-to-expe...
Here's the Pittsburgh area, in our 100K District Tabula America Index map. Pittsburgh has a black core, with the rest of the metro being mostly college-educated suburban areas. There are a few blue collar, white areas as well, a remnant of Pittsburgh's manufacturing history.
December 1, 2025 at 4:33 AM
Here's the Pittsburgh area, in our 100K District Tabula America Index map. Pittsburgh has a black core, with the rest of the metro being mostly college-educated suburban areas. There are a few blue collar, white areas as well, a remnant of Pittsburgh's manufacturing history.
If you are a candidate or potential candidate running for office and looking to get a leg up, contact us! We help YOU win, through demographic focused analytics and public opinion. If you're interested, contact us at:
[email protected]
OR, DM us here, or join our Discord!
[email protected]
OR, DM us here, or join our Discord!
November 29, 2025 at 9:56 PM
If you are a candidate or potential candidate running for office and looking to get a leg up, contact us! We help YOU win, through demographic focused analytics and public opinion. If you're interested, contact us at:
[email protected]
OR, DM us here, or join our Discord!
[email protected]
OR, DM us here, or join our Discord!
Reposted by ElectionCord
does feel like a big thing that he's dropping below 40
NEW: for the first time in his second term, President Trump has dipped below 40% approval, according to our presidential approval averages. He's experienced a sharp dip in the past month or two, mostly thanks to concerns about the economy.
Check out our averages at: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/
Check out our averages at: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/
November 29, 2025 at 8:20 PM
does feel like a big thing that he's dropping below 40
NEW: for the first time in his second term, President Trump has dipped below 40% approval, according to our presidential approval averages. He's experienced a sharp dip in the past month or two, mostly thanks to concerns about the economy.
Check out our averages at: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/
Check out our averages at: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/
November 29, 2025 at 8:06 PM
NEW: for the first time in his second term, President Trump has dipped below 40% approval, according to our presidential approval averages. He's experienced a sharp dip in the past month or two, mostly thanks to concerns about the economy.
Check out our averages at: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/
Check out our averages at: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/
According to Gallup's new poll, Trump is -25?!? on immigration, easily his lowest number I've seen on his immigration approval. I find it kind of hard to believe, but Gallup has been doing this way longer than just about anyone else
November 28, 2025 at 7:36 PM
According to Gallup's new poll, Trump is -25?!? on immigration, easily his lowest number I've seen on his immigration approval. I find it kind of hard to believe, but Gallup has been doing this way longer than just about anyone else
One interesting thing in the new YouGov/Yahoo poll was within the crosstabs of the Generic Ballot question. Among registered voters who did not vote in 2024, Democrats hold a 9% advantage, given that 39% were either not sure or would not vote.
November 27, 2025 at 4:39 AM
One interesting thing in the new YouGov/Yahoo poll was within the crosstabs of the Generic Ballot question. Among registered voters who did not vote in 2024, Democrats hold a 9% advantage, given that 39% were either not sure or would not vote.
I'm pretty suspicious of a lot of these numbers. I do think he's clearly under in every Harris won state, under in every swing state, and about tied or slightly under in places like TX, FL, and OH. But he is not under in Oklahoma, and certainly wouldn't be under there and not Montana...
Trump’s approval collapses nationwide, turning several deep-red states negative — Economist tracker
November 25, 2025 at 6:44 PM
I'm pretty suspicious of a lot of these numbers. I do think he's clearly under in every Harris won state, under in every swing state, and about tied or slightly under in places like TX, FL, and OH. But he is not under in Oklahoma, and certainly wouldn't be under there and not Montana...
If true, this would be a fantastic change, and one that would be a grand test on a national scale. I assure everyone that if anything, RCV actually incentives moderation, and more options, rather then radicalism. Zohran won because of RCV, but only because no one liked Cuomo.
Democratic politicians and activists are quietly lobbying to upend the way the party picks its presidential nominee by urging the use of ranked-choice voting.
Scoop: Democrats eye ranked-choice voting for 2028 primaries
It's a tool that drew national attention when it propelled New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to a decisive primary win.
www.axios.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:41 AM
If true, this would be a fantastic change, and one that would be a grand test on a national scale. I assure everyone that if anything, RCV actually incentives moderation, and more options, rather then radicalism. Zohran won because of RCV, but only because no one liked Cuomo.
Reposted by ElectionCord
We are working on our 2026 averages, and 4 polls in the last 10 days asked registered voters about how they're going to vote in 2026, otherwise known as the generic ballot question. The average of the polls was D+6, 49%-43%. As a comparison, the House's margin in 2018 ended up being about D+8.
November 23, 2025 at 5:36 AM
We are working on our 2026 averages, and 4 polls in the last 10 days asked registered voters about how they're going to vote in 2026, otherwise known as the generic ballot question. The average of the polls was D+6, 49%-43%. As a comparison, the House's margin in 2018 ended up being about D+8.
We are working on our 2026 averages, and 4 polls in the last 10 days asked registered voters about how they're going to vote in 2026, otherwise known as the generic ballot question. The average of the polls was D+6, 49%-43%. As a comparison, the House's margin in 2018 ended up being about D+8.
November 23, 2025 at 5:36 AM
We are working on our 2026 averages, and 4 polls in the last 10 days asked registered voters about how they're going to vote in 2026, otherwise known as the generic ballot question. The average of the polls was D+6, 49%-43%. As a comparison, the House's margin in 2018 ended up being about D+8.