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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 9h

He will need to secure the neutrality of both the Socialists and the mainstream LR right. Gaining the neutrality of the 1st implies dumping Macron's reforms (eg pensions, taxes) with the risk of losing the support of the moderate right. But all share a powerful fear of losing snap elections

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 9h

Notwithstanding Lecornu's smarts and his ability to impress public opinion (11% rise in opinion polls in 2 weeks), the odds are stacked against him: I rate his chances of reaching the New Year in his position at 1 in 5. And that may be overoptimistic

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 9h

Lecornu re-named Prime Minister by Macron. His challenge will be to get a budget passed by end December. Composition of the Lecornu 2 cabinet will emerge by Monday but will be quite different from Lecornu 1 and its brief 13h56 lifetime . Macron says he's giving Lecornu carte blanche. We'll see

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 9h

Notwithstanding Lecornu's smarts and his ability to impress public opinion (11% rise in opinion polls in 2 weeks), the odds are stacked against him: I rate his chances of reaching the New Year in his position at 1 in 5. And that may be overoptimistic

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 9h

Lecornu re-named Prime Minister by Macron. His challenge will be to get a budget passed by end December. Composition of the Lecornu 2 cabinet will emerge by Monday but will be quite different from Lecornu 1 and its brief 13h56 lifetime . Macron says he's giving Lecornu carte blanche. We'll see

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Libération @liberation.fr · 9h

Macron «donne carte blanche au Premier ministre» Sébastien Lecornu, assure l’entourage du président. Cela concerne «les négociations» sur le fond avec les partis politiques comme «les propositions de nominations», précise à l'AFP un proche du chef de l’Etat.

Le direct ⬇️

EN DIRECT - Nouveau Premier ministre : Macron renomme Lecornu à Matignon et lui donne «carte blanche»

www.liberation.fr

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Unofficial BBCNews (World) Bot @bbcnews-world-rss.bsky.social · 9h

Trump threatens to pull out of planned Xi meeting

Trump also threatened a "massive" tariff increase, after China tightened its rules for exports of rare earths.

www.bbc.com

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 9h

Lecornu re-named Prime Minister by Macron. His challenge will be to get a budget passed by end December. Composition of the Lecornu 2 cabinet will emerge by Monday but will be quite different from Lecornu 1 and its brief 13h56 lifetime . Macron says he's giving Lecornu carte blanche. We'll see

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 21h

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1325

1. Duma OK's possible 🇷🇺 exit from 2000 accord with US re elimination of 34 t of plutonium

2 Putin assails possible sale of US Tomahawk's to 🇺🇦

3. Big bombing night vs 🇺🇦:
60 Shahed leakers out of 465
9 Iskander-Ks down/12
4 Iskander-Ms down / 14
1 Kinzhal down/2
1 Kh-59/69 down/4

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 22h

Emergency blackouts have been implemented in parts of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions following Russia’s mass strike, DTEK reports. Power cuts are ongoing in Brovary and Boryspil districts, while in Kryvyi Rih, rolling outages are underway. Critical infrastructure is switching to generators.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 22h

Results of the missile and drone attack on Ukraine:

Shot down:
405/465 Shahed and other type drones
1/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
4/14 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
9/12 Iskander-K cruise missiles
1/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

In addition, 4 missiles did not reach their targets.

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

The money frozen at Euroclear in Brussels is public Russian money

Baptiste @baptisteseringue.bsky.social · 1d

May I ask what is the process of this Russian asset frozing ? I don’t get the link with Russian taxpayers.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Vitaliy Kim, Head of the Mykolaiv Administration, confirmed that Russian forces on the occupied Kinburn Spit are only using it as a forward recon and FPV drone post. When Ukrainian troops entered, they fled, leaving equipment behind. A larger contingent of Russian troops is concentrated more inland.

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Baptiste @baptisteseringue.bsky.social · 1d

May I ask what is the process of this Russian asset frozing ? I don’t get the link with Russian taxpayers.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Ukraine’s Parliament has backed Zelensky’s decision to deploy Armed Forces units abroad. The bill allows Ukrainian naval ships and crews to take part in NATO exercises and missions in Turkey and the UK.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces also confirm they carried out deep-strike attacks overnight on Lukoil’s Korobkovsky Gas Processing Plant and the Yefimovka dispatch station in Russia’s Volgograd region. The Korobkovsky facility handles up to 450 million m³ of natural and associated gas annually.

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1324

1. Kotovo (Volgograd oblast) gas processing plant burns after drone attack
2. 22 Shahed leakers out of 112
3. Cease-fire by Monday in Gaza along with freeing of hostages

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

Bottom-line : this is basically doable and consequently the Russian taxpayer may soon be paying the costs of Western military support to Ukraine

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

Belgium has laid out its red lines for using Russian assets to fund a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine.

This includes an agreement by EU countries to share all current and future risks related to the plan for an amount exceeding €170 billion.

Belgium lays out red lines on €140B Ukraine loan

Belgian PM Bart De Wever has suggested that the Commission’s scheme to leverage Russian frozen assets effectively amounts to confiscation.

ow.ly

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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

Belgium has laid out its red lines for using Russian assets to fund a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine.

This includes an agreement by EU countries to share all current and future risks related to the plan for an amount exceeding €170 billion.

Belgium lays out red lines on €140B Ukraine loan

Belgian PM Bart De Wever has suggested that the Commission’s scheme to leverage Russian frozen assets effectively amounts to confiscation.

ow.ly

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Ukrainian drones struck a gas processing plant in Kotovo, Volgograd region. The local governor reported debris falling on a boiler facility and a fire at fuel and energy infrastructure sites. FIRMS data confirmed fires at the Kotovo plant and at the Yefimovka pumping station, about 8 km to the south

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Israel and Hamas have reached a peace agreement. Hostages are expected to be released within 72 hours of approval by Israel’s cabinet, likely by Monday.

Hamas confirmed the deal, saying it includes an end to fighting in Gaza, Israeli troop withdrawal, humanitarian aid, and prisoner exchanges.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

The bigger question, sadly, is whether the next French PM can last longer than 48 hours...

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 2d

Outgoing French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said his replacement could be tapped in the next 48 hours, but gave little indication how his successor could steer France out of its current crisis.

France could get next PM within 48 hours, outgoing prime minister says

“A path forward is still possible,” Lecornu said.

www.politico.eu

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

Après avoir expliqué (à juste titre) depuis 2022 que la situation du pays exigeait discipline budgétaire et réforme des retraites, les mêmes expliquent désormais que ce n'est pas vraiment le cas. Les électeurs puniront sévèrement cette mauvaise plaisanterie quand la parole leur sera rendue

Le Monde @lemonde.fr · 2d

Sébastien Lecornu prêt à lâcher sur le déficit pour faire passer un budget

Le premier ministre démissionnaire serait disposé à ce que le déficit public baisse en 2026 deux fois moins que ce qui était prévu par son prédécesseur, François Bayrou, si cela permet de trouver un compromis parlementaire sur le budget.

www.lemonde.fr

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Le Monde @lemonde.fr · 2d

Sébastien Lecornu prêt à lâcher sur le déficit pour faire passer un budget

Le premier ministre démissionnaire serait disposé à ce que le déficit public baisse en 2026 deux fois moins que ce qui était prévu par son prédécesseur, François Bayrou, si cela permet de trouver un compromis parlementaire sur le budget.

www.lemonde.fr

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

Grey zone ops

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 2d

One of Europe’s biggest air defense companies is warning that its top secret factories are being overflown by increasing numbers of drones.

And it wants clear rules on how to jam or bring them down.

Top EU weapons firm warns of drone threat to production lines

Thales Belgium says its factory making 70 mm rockets is being buzzed by drones.

ow.ly

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1323

1. political confusion continues to reign in🇫🇷. Former PM Borne suggests suspending her (and Macron's) signature pension reform. Other former PM Philippe urges his former boss Macron to resign. Yet another, Atall no longer understands Macron
2. 29 Shahed leakers out of 183 launches

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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 2d

One of Europe’s biggest air defense companies is warning that its top secret factories are being overflown by increasing numbers of drones.

And it wants clear rules on how to jam or bring them down.

Top EU weapons firm warns of drone threat to production lines

Thales Belgium says its factory making 70 mm rockets is being buzzed by drones.

ow.ly

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 2d

A new Ukrainian strategy on the front is delivering surprising results. Ukraine may be winning the war of attrition, The Atlantic reports. Russia expected quick gains in northeastern Ukraine, but key cities and logistics hubs remain firmly under Ukrainian control.

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Pierre Haski @pierrehaski.bsky.social · 2d

Mettez-vous dans la tête de Poutine, Xi et Trump, et essayez d’imaginer ce qu’ils pensent de la crise politique française ! L’exercice est instructif et devrait faire réfléchir en France. Ma chronique Géopolitique du 7/11 @franceinter www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...

La crise française vue par Poutine, Xi ou Trump : l’Europe affaiblie

Mettez-vous un instant dans la tête de Vladimir Poutine : quelle satisfaction de voir la France, co-leader, avec le Royaume Uni, de la « coalition des volontaires » formée en soutien à l’Ukraine, s’en...

www.radiofrance.fr

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 3d

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Oct. 7 said those who built Nord Stream 2, not those accused of sabotaging it, "should be ashamed and remain silent," adding it is "not in Poland's interest" to hand over the suspect.

Ukraine war latest: 'Not in Poland's interest,' to hand over Ukrainian in Nord Stream probe, Tusk says

Key developments on Oct. 7: * 'Not in Poland's interest,' to hand over Ukrainian in Nord Stream 2 probe, Tusk says * Slovakia sends first nonlethal defense aid package to Ukraine since Fico took of...

kyivindependent.com

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 3d

⚡️ Poland, Lithuania reject Merkel's claim they 'did not support' EU unity on Russia.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she sought to revive dialogue between the EU and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Poland, Lithuania reject Merkel's claim they 'did not support' EU unity on Russia

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she sought to revive dialogue between the EU and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

kyivindependent.com

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 3d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1322

1. facilities hit in Nizhny-Novogorod and Dzherzhinsk areas

2. 64 Shahed leakers out of 152 plus 2 Iskander-M/KN-23

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 3d

What was unlikely yesterday is now moving to centre stage: first Macron PM Edouard Philippe calls on Macron to resign and organise early presidential elections

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 3d

Le patron d'Horizons et ancien Premier ministre Édouard Philippe a demandé à Emmanuel Macron d'annoncer qu'"il organise une élection présidentielle anticipée", après l'adoption d'un budget pour 2026, pour "sortir d'une façon ordonnée et digne d'une crise politique qui nuit au pays".

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