François Heisbourg
fheisbourg.bsky.social
François Heisbourg
@fheisbourg.bsky.social

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS,
Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

François Heisbourg is currently Senior Advisor for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Special Advisor at the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique. He was director of the IISS from 1987 to 1992 and its chairman from 2001 to 2018. .. more

Political science 72%
Economics 21%
Keith Kellogg praised Zelensky, calling him a “tough son of a bitch”, determined, outspoken, and media-savvy. “We haven’t seen a leader like him in the U.S. since Abraham Lincoln,” he said.

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1417

1. Trump repeats intimidation of 🇩🇰 and 🇬🇱

2. Okryabrsky (Volgograd) oil facility burns

3. 27 Shahed hits out of ~80

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1416

1. BIG MISSILE NIGHT:
1 Oreshnik vs Liviv
8 Iskander-M down out of 13
10 Kalibr down out of 22
19 leaakers out of ~150 Shahed

2. Trump says he commits to security guarantees for 🇺🇦 because he believes 🇷🇺 won't reinvade
⚡️ Trump's Ukraine defense commitment hinges on belief Russia won't invade again.

"I feel strongly they (Russia) wouldn't re-invade, or I wouldn't agree to it," Trump told the New York Times.
Trump's Ukraine defense commitment hinges on belief Russia won't invade again
"I feel strongly they (Russia) wouldn't re-invade, or I wouldn't agree to it," Trump told the New York Times when asked about Washington's potential involvement in safeguarding Ukraine against future ...
kyivindependent.com
Trump says the US will begin military action against cartels inside Mexico. Trump said U.S. forces are preparing to “start hitting land” to target cartels, which he claimed are “running Mexico,” and that the military has already curtailed most drug trafficking by sea before shifting focus to land.
Overnight, Russia attacked #Ukraine with 242 drones, 13 ballistic missiles, one Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, and 22 cruise missiles.

In addition to civilian infrastructure and energy facilities, the building of the Embassy of Qatar was damaged by a Russian drone last night.
In Lviv, authorities are working to confirm the details of a missile strike. Mayor Sadovyi says investigations are ongoing. Preliminary reports suggest Russia used an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Six explosions were heard across the city.

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1415

1. US wirh UK cooperation boards 🇷🇺 flagged tanker Marinera on rhe high seas. No info yet on contents. Initial 🇷🇺 official reaction is prudent

2. Trump casts doubt on NATO solidarity while asserting rights on Greenland a NATO territory

3. 27 Shahed strikes out of ~70 launched
❗️Denmark says its troops would defend Greenland by force if the U.S. attacked. Copenhagen confirmed that a 1952 military directive is still in effect, meaning Danish forces are ordered to respond immediately to any aggression, even from an ally, before seeking orders or asking questions.
Guerre d'Ukraine | 07/01/26

Secteurs :
🌐 Zone Sud-Ouest Koursk🔹U260107-0955
🌐 Lyman-Siversk🔹U260107-0959
🌐 Chasiv Yar 🔹U260107-1005
🌐 Novopavlivka🔹U260107-1008

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine
⚡️Key Russian terminal exported $8.4 billion of LNG to Europe in 2025, watchdog finds.
Key Russian terminal exported $8.4 billion of LNG to Europe in 2025, watchdog finds
The report follows an agreement reached in December 2025 by EU countries to ban Russian gas imports beginning Jan. 1, 2028, with LNG imports set to be prohibited at the start of 2027.
kyivindependent.com

UK supported US mission to seize Russian-flagged oil tanker, MoD says reut.rs/4ju7nx9
UK supported US mission to seize Russian-flagged oil tanker, MoD says
Britain provided support to the United States in its operation to seize a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic, the Ministry of Defence said on Wednesday.
reut.rs
🚨BREAKING: Trump today cast fresh doubt on NATO’s reliability, saying he was not convinced the alliance would come to Washington’s aid in a crisis, as tensions rose over the White House's renewed push to acquire Greenland.

Full story:
Trump hammers NATO allies while Greenland crisis deepens
“I DOUBT NATO WOULD BE THERE FOR US IF WE REALLY NEEDED THEM,” says American president.
www.politico.eu
⚡️ Update: Moscow protests US seizure of Russian-flagged tanker.

The Marinera tanker was granted "temporary authorization" to sail under the Russian flag on Dec. 24, 2025, Russia's Transport Ministry said.
US seizes Russian-flagged oil tanker after it evaded Venezuela blockade
Russia appealed to the U.S. to halt the pursuit and reportedly dispatched a submarine and other vessels to escort the tanker before it was boarded by U.S. forces.
kyivindependent.com

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1404

1.After coalition of the willing meet, Macron says US will lead ceasefire monitoring force in C4ISR role. Europeans to provide boots on the ground. Thousands fm🇫🇷
2. Fiona Hill says Putin suggested 🇺🇦🇻🇪 swap in 2019
3. 1 Iskander-M & 18/80 Shahed hits
4. Babić extends🇨🇿ammo initiative
⚡️ Zelensky visits Cyprus as Nicosia's EU presidency begins.

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Cyprus to meet his Cypriot counterpart, Nikos Christodoulides, and top EU officials, presidential spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov said on Jan. 7.
Zelensky visits Cyprus as Nicosia's EU presidency begins
President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Cyprus to meet his Cypriot counterpart, Nikos Christodoulides, and top EU officials, presidential spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov said on Jan. 7.
kyivindependent.com
⚡️Russia offered to 'swap' Venezuela for Ukraine in 2019, Trump adviser testimony claims.

In a 2019 hearing, former Trump adviser Fiona Hill claimed Moscow proposed a "very strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine," based on the Monroe Doctrine.
Russia offered to 'swap' Venezuela for Ukraine in 2019, Trump adviser testimony claims
Former Trump adviser Fiona Hill's congressional testimony resurfaced after the U.S. attack on Venezuela. Hill claimed Moscow sent signals proposing a "very strange swap arrangement between Venezuela a...
kyivindependent.com
⚡️ Czech-led ammunition initiative for Ukraine will continue, Babis says.

"I have decided... that we will not disrupt the ammunition initiative. The project will continue, and the Czech Republic will be in the role of coordinator," Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said on Jan. 6.
Czech-led ammunition initiative for Ukraine will continue, Babis says
"I have decided, even after consulting with coalition partners, that we will not disrupt the ammunition initiative. The project will continue, and the Czech Republic will be in the role of coordinator...
kyivindependent.com
Europe and the US stand ready to commit to "legally binding" security guarantees to support Ukraine in the event of a peace settlement with Russia, according to a draft statement seen by POLITICO.
European leaders to pledge ‘legally binding’ security guarantees to Ukraine
Statement would be one of the strongest signs yet of U.S. commitment to Kyiv security.
www.politico.eu

Indeed
What is just crazy about this, aside from the need for this statement at all, is that Greenland already IS in the US sphere of influence. It's far cheaper for the US, in material, security, and reputational terms, to have Denmark continue administering Greenland and work within NATO on security.
Joint Statement of major EU/NATO countries on Greenland, together with Denmark:
Incredible how little attention this is getting outside Germany. "In its third full day, a ... power failure in Berlin resulting from an arson attack...tens of thousands...making do without heat, electricity, cellphone service & warm food or drinks." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/w...
Thousands in Berlin Go Days Without Power and Cell Service After Cables Are Set on Fire
www.nytimes.com
What is just crazy about this, aside from the need for this statement at all, is that Greenland already IS in the US sphere of influence. It's far cheaper for the US, in material, security, and reputational terms, to have Denmark continue administering Greenland and work within NATO on security.
Joint Statement of major EU/NATO countries on Greenland, together with Denmark:

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1413

1. Coalition of the willing meets in Paris. Not-so-willing Witkoff & Kushner join.
2. Reshuffle at SBU
3. 🇷🇺 hits US-owned (Bunge) sunflower oil plant in Dnipro
4. Pokrovsk & Myrnohrad battles still in full spate
5. ~40 Shaheds launched, 8 hits
6. Trump to seize 🇬🇱 in 2 Months
Europe’s failure to condemn Trump’s illegal aggression in Venezuela isn’t just wrong – it’s stupid. My piece @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Europe’s failure to condemn Trump’s illegal aggression in Venezuela isn’t just wrong – it’s stupid | Nathalie Tocci
The more European countries act as colonies, unable and unwilling to stand up to Trump, the more they’ll be treated as such, says Guardian Europe columnist Nathalie Tocci
www.theguardian.com

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1412

1. Greenland next on US list
2. Trumps finally realises Russian claims of strike on Putin's dacha were spurious
3. Energia plant hit in Lipetsk; strike vs Yelets
4. ~100 Shaheds launched 26 leakers

Greenland next on list
⚡️After US attack on Venezuela, Trump's Greenland ambitions spark renewed alarm.

"We do need Greenland, absolutely," Trump told the Atlantic in an interview on Jan. 4, saying the island is "surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships."
After US attack on Venezuela, Trump's Greenland ambitions spark renewed alarm
"We do need Greenland, absolutely," Trump told the Atlantic in an interview on Jan. 4, saying the island is "surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships."
kyivindependent.com
Donald Trump’s shock operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is setting European leaders on edge.

One question flashes bright red for Europe today: Is Greenland next?

Brussels Playbook digs deeper 👇
Is Greenland next?
Presented by Mediterranea Saving Humans By NICHOLAS VINOCUR PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Contact us on X @gerardofortuna @NicholasVinocur | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser GREETINGS. I…
www.politico.eu
France reiterates its support of Denmark and Greenland sovereignty after renewed Trump threats reut.rs/3Nt6F77
France reiterates its support of Denmark and Greenland sovereignty after renewed Trump threats
France reiterated on Monday its support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and Greenland following renewed threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to take over Greenland.
reut.rs
President Trump on the alleged Ukrainian strike on Putin's residence:

I don't believe that strike happened. There is something that happened fairly nearby, but had nothing to do with this house.