Spencer J Fox
@foxandtheflu.bsky.social
Assistant prof at UGA in Epi/Bios, disease modeler, and data scientist. Posts are my own opinions
Just finished writing up a quick summary of our new publication on the lab website. We developed a new method we call "epimodulation" that fixes biases in forecasts with epidemiological principles. It was really fun to work on this one! thefoxlab.wordpress.com/2025/11/12/n...
New paper – Improving outbreak forecasts through model augmentation
The Fox lab had our latest forecasting work published in PNAS a couple of weeks ago! This paper has been about 4 years in the making beginning a couple of years in to the COVID-19 pandemic when our…
thefoxlab.wordpress.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Just finished writing up a quick summary of our new publication on the lab website. We developed a new method we call "epimodulation" that fixes biases in forecasts with epidemiological principles. It was really fun to work on this one! thefoxlab.wordpress.com/2025/11/12/n...
In the NYT today, a discussion of how Canada will lose their measles elimination status. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/w...
This was predictable and preventable, something Amy Winter and I discussed in our disease watch piece 4 months ago: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
This was predictable and preventable, something Amy Winter and I discussed in our disease watch piece 4 months ago: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Canada Is About to Lose Its Status as Having Eliminated Measles
www.nytimes.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:32 PM
In the NYT today, a discussion of how Canada will lose their measles elimination status. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/w...
This was predictable and preventable, something Amy Winter and I discussed in our disease watch piece 4 months ago: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
This was predictable and preventable, something Amy Winter and I discussed in our disease watch piece 4 months ago: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
November 5, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...
Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others
A new postdoc position just opened in our group at NAU! We are looking for someone to lead our current forecasting activities and the development of our next generation AI/ML models! Don't hesitate to reach out to me with any questions! careers.nau.edu/jobs/postdoc...
Postdoctoral Scholar - Flagstaff, Arizona, United States
Special Information
This position is an on-site position which requires the incumbent to complete their work primarily at an NAU site, campus, or facility with or without accommodation. Opportunities...
careers.nau.edu
November 4, 2025 at 9:46 PM
A new postdoc position just opened in our group at NAU! We are looking for someone to lead our current forecasting activities and the development of our next generation AI/ML models! Don't hesitate to reach out to me with any questions! careers.nau.edu/jobs/postdoc...
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
Check out our new paper @nejm.org. RSV, COVID-19 & Influenza vaccines continue to show consistent effectiveness & safety based on a review & synthesis of 500+ research studies👇! We worked hard to evaluate the evidence so you can be confident about getting vaccinated this fall!
Even as the anti-vax lobby erodes public trust, new evidence confirms that "immunizations against Covid-19, RSV, and influenza have shown consistent effectiveness & safety and are associated with a substantially reduced risk of hospitalization & severe disease"
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
October 31, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Check out our new paper @nejm.org. RSV, COVID-19 & Influenza vaccines continue to show consistent effectiveness & safety based on a review & synthesis of 500+ research studies👇! We worked hard to evaluate the evidence so you can be confident about getting vaccinated this fall!
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
1/5: Interested in basketball? Disease ecology? Epidemics?
5 years ago, the NBA embarked on a great experiment in infection control: "The NBA Bubble." In a new preprint led by Dr. Yun Tao + Dr. Nita Bharti, we examine it's underlying disease ecology principles.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
5 years ago, the NBA embarked on a great experiment in infection control: "The NBA Bubble." In a new preprint led by Dr. Yun Tao + Dr. Nita Bharti, we examine it's underlying disease ecology principles.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Pandemic-era sports league operations as a new paradigm for local epidemic resilience
Strategic, coordinated, and rapid responses are essential when pathogens emerge, yet these responses are often mishandled during epidemics due to myriad factors, including entrenched socioeconomic and...
www.medrxiv.org
October 31, 2025 at 11:56 AM
1/5: Interested in basketball? Disease ecology? Epidemics?
5 years ago, the NBA embarked on a great experiment in infection control: "The NBA Bubble." In a new preprint led by Dr. Yun Tao + Dr. Nita Bharti, we examine it's underlying disease ecology principles.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
5 years ago, the NBA embarked on a great experiment in infection control: "The NBA Bubble." In a new preprint led by Dr. Yun Tao + Dr. Nita Bharti, we examine it's underlying disease ecology principles.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Took some time to update the lab website with a couple new posts and lab news! Check it out to hear about some lab changes and recent fun things we've been up to! thefoxlab.wordpress.com
The Fox Lab
Statistical and computational epidemiology
thefoxlab.wordpress.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Took some time to update the lab website with a couple new posts and lab news! Check it out to hear about some lab changes and recent fun things we've been up to! thefoxlab.wordpress.com
Just published! Our new work on a method to add epi info to any forecast model. We showed that it improved the performance of all forecast models we tested including ensembles. Now we hope to deploy it in real-time to see how well it works: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
October 27, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Just published! Our new work on a method to add epi info to any forecast model. We showed that it improved the performance of all forecast models we tested including ensembles. Now we hope to deploy it in real-time to see how well it works: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
A new approach called “epimodulation” — developed by UT Austin researchers & collaborators — predicts epidemic peaks better than current models and could boost health care preparations in future outbreaks.
#Epidemiology #PublicHealth @texas-ib.bsky.social
cns.utexas.edu/news/researc...
#Epidemiology #PublicHealth @texas-ib.bsky.social
cns.utexas.edu/news/researc...
A New Tool for Healthcare Gives Better Outbreak Forecasts
Pinpointing an outbreak’s peak, the approach can boost health systems’ preparedness and risk communication.
cns.utexas.edu
October 27, 2025 at 3:03 PM
A new approach called “epimodulation” — developed by UT Austin researchers & collaborators — predicts epidemic peaks better than current models and could boost health care preparations in future outbreaks.
#Epidemiology #PublicHealth @texas-ib.bsky.social
cns.utexas.edu/news/researc...
#Epidemiology #PublicHealth @texas-ib.bsky.social
cns.utexas.edu/news/researc...
Why has H5N1 not been as deadly as we were expecting so far? Really liked this summary of the evidence and possible explanations by @jdrakephd.bsky.social
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Understanding avian influenza mortality
Three theories could explain why the North American H5N1 epidemic has not been more deadly
www.science.org
October 14, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Why has H5N1 not been as deadly as we were expecting so far? Really liked this summary of the evidence and possible explanations by @jdrakephd.bsky.social
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
Today my @nytimes.com colleagues and I are launching a new series called Lost Science. We interview US scientists who can no longer discover something new about our world, thanks to this year‘s cuts. Here is my first interview with a scientist who studied bees and fires. Gift link: nyti.ms/3IWXbiE
nyti.ms
October 8, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Today my @nytimes.com colleagues and I are launching a new series called Lost Science. We interview US scientists who can no longer discover something new about our world, thanks to this year‘s cuts. Here is my first interview with a scientist who studied bees and fires. Gift link: nyti.ms/3IWXbiE
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
What is the impact of the HHS decision to no longer recommend COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy? In our new research letter in @jamapediatrics.com, we provide estimates on the number of infant hospitalizations under different vaccine scenarios here. @mathewkiang.com, @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social
Modeling the Health Impact of Discontinuing COVID-19 Vaccination During Pregnancy in the US
This decision analytical model study estimates the number of avertable COVID-19 hospitalizations in US infants younger than 6 months and pregnant persons with vaccinations during pregnancy.
jamanetwork.com
September 29, 2025 at 11:30 PM
What is the impact of the HHS decision to no longer recommend COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy? In our new research letter in @jamapediatrics.com, we provide estimates on the number of infant hospitalizations under different vaccine scenarios here. @mathewkiang.com, @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social
Was excited to see an explanation for spaghetti models for hurricane forecasts. We use these for infectious disease forecasting too! weather.com/science/weat...
How to Read Spaghetti Models During Hurricane Season | Weather.com
Understanding this delicious-sounding term will help you this hurricane season.
weather.com
September 25, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Was excited to see an explanation for spaghetti models for hurricane forecasts. We use these for infectious disease forecasting too! weather.com/science/weat...
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
No university will pay $100k for an H-1B visa. These visas are primarily used for postdocs, and nobody can justify paying an extra $100k for that type of position. That's an entire additional year of postdoc funding. 1/2
EXCLUSIVE: A new analysis by The Xylom's @alexip718.com shows for the first time just how much America’s top research institutions have grown to depend on H-1B skilled workers — and how this delicate balance might be disrupted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s crackdown on legal immigration.
The Most Detailed Maps of H-1B Visa Holders Joining America's Top Research Institutions
A new analysis by The Xylom shows for the first time just how much America’s top research institutions have grown to depend on the specialized knowledge of H-1B skilled workers — and how this…
www.thexylom.com
September 25, 2025 at 11:15 PM
No university will pay $100k for an H-1B visa. These visas are primarily used for postdocs, and nobody can justify paying an extra $100k for that type of position. That's an entire additional year of postdoc funding. 1/2
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
The Legionnaire's Disease cluster in Central Harlem has now grown to 58 cases. 21 hospitalized.
Tragically there has been a 2nd death.
If you live or work in zip codes 10027, 10030, 10035, 10037 or 10039 and you develop flu-like symptoms, contact a health care provider immediately.
Tragically there has been a 2nd death.
If you live or work in zip codes 10027, 10030, 10035, 10037 or 10039 and you develop flu-like symptoms, contact a health care provider immediately.
August 5, 2025 at 1:49 AM
The Legionnaire's Disease cluster in Central Harlem has now grown to 58 cases. 21 hospitalized.
Tragically there has been a 2nd death.
If you live or work in zip codes 10027, 10030, 10035, 10037 or 10039 and you develop flu-like symptoms, contact a health care provider immediately.
Tragically there has been a 2nd death.
If you live or work in zip codes 10027, 10030, 10035, 10037 or 10039 and you develop flu-like symptoms, contact a health care provider immediately.
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
From Senator @murray.senate.gov: the Senate's proposed NIH budget would reject 40% cuts, increase funding by $400M.
"We're not going to give up the fight against cancer, Alzheimer's or rare diseases."
Message to scientists: "we support you. We need you to stay here & keep this research going."
"We're not going to give up the fight against cancer, Alzheimer's or rare diseases."
Message to scientists: "we support you. We need you to stay here & keep this research going."
Deep cuts to NIH proposed by the White House could cause economic losses of over $1B in 13 states: California, New York, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Texas,
Washington, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and New Jersey.
scienceimpacts.org/fy26
Washington, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and New Jersey.
scienceimpacts.org/fy26
July 31, 2025 at 1:52 PM
From Senator @murray.senate.gov: the Senate's proposed NIH budget would reject 40% cuts, increase funding by $400M.
"We're not going to give up the fight against cancer, Alzheimer's or rare diseases."
Message to scientists: "we support you. We need you to stay here & keep this research going."
"We're not going to give up the fight against cancer, Alzheimer's or rare diseases."
Message to scientists: "we support you. We need you to stay here & keep this research going."
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
“The Legionnaires' disease cluster is in Central Harlem. According to NYC Health, the following zip codes are affected:
10027
10030
10035
10037
10039
People who live or work around these ZIP codes and develop flu-like symptoms should see a health care provider right away, the agency said.”
10027
10030
10035
10037
10039
People who live or work around these ZIP codes and develop flu-like symptoms should see a health care provider right away, the agency said.”
1 dead, multiple people sickened in Legionnaires' disease cluster in New York City
New York City officials said they are investigating a cluster of Legionnaires' disease that has caused one death and nearly two dozen illnesses.
www.usatoday.com
July 31, 2025 at 3:46 PM
“The Legionnaires' disease cluster is in Central Harlem. According to NYC Health, the following zip codes are affected:
10027
10030
10035
10037
10039
People who live or work around these ZIP codes and develop flu-like symptoms should see a health care provider right away, the agency said.”
10027
10030
10035
10037
10039
People who live or work around these ZIP codes and develop flu-like symptoms should see a health care provider right away, the agency said.”
Wow! I’m actually surprised we haven’t seen more of this unfortunately… hoping federal funding stabilizes soon 🤞
July 30, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Wow! I’m actually surprised we haven’t seen more of this unfortunately… hoping federal funding stabilizes soon 🤞
I announced it at SISMID so now to make it official. In August the Fox lab will be moving to NAU in Flagstaff AZ. I am so sad to leave all my wonderful UGA colleagues, but am excited to settle permanently in the Southwest near these mountains and the desert.
July 30, 2025 at 9:35 PM
I announced it at SISMID so now to make it official. In August the Fox lab will be moving to NAU in Flagstaff AZ. I am so sad to leave all my wonderful UGA colleagues, but am excited to settle permanently in the Southwest near these mountains and the desert.
Been thinking about this preprint a lot the past couple of weeks: arxiv.org/abs/2506.07825
It says that for an outbreak you cannot estimate a transmission rate, initial susceptibility pool, and reporting rate together. This makes sense intuitively but it’s nice to have the proof
It says that for an outbreak you cannot estimate a transmission rate, initial susceptibility pool, and reporting rate together. This makes sense intuitively but it’s nice to have the proof
Identifiability in epidemic models with prior immunity and under-reporting
Identifiability is the property in mathematical modelling that determines if model parameters can be uniquely estimated from data. For infectious disease models, failure to ensure identifiability can ...
arxiv.org
July 30, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Been thinking about this preprint a lot the past couple of weeks: arxiv.org/abs/2506.07825
It says that for an outbreak you cannot estimate a transmission rate, initial susceptibility pool, and reporting rate together. This makes sense intuitively but it’s nice to have the proof
It says that for an outbreak you cannot estimate a transmission rate, initial susceptibility pool, and reporting rate together. This makes sense intuitively but it’s nice to have the proof
Enjoyed wildflower season in the mountains this weekend and now I’m on my way to teach Simulation-based inference of epidemiological dynamics at SISMID! See y’all in Atlanta soon!
July 22, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Enjoyed wildflower season in the mountains this weekend and now I’m on my way to teach Simulation-based inference of epidemiological dynamics at SISMID! See y’all in Atlanta soon!
This is so cool to play with!
The new support for claude with artefacts let me take a grant app rest day to try and create my dream .... customised chat interfaces to package docs (yes I am very fun).
claude.ai/public/artif...
rough around the edges but pretty insanely trendy
claude.ai/public/artif...
rough around the edges but pretty insanely trendy
Primary Censored Learning Assistant | Claude
Primary Censored Learning Assistant - interactive HTML page created with Claude.
claude.ai
July 1, 2025 at 3:24 PM
This is so cool to play with!
Great way to stay in touch with all of the amazing infectious disease modeling work happening these days:
Infectious Disease Modelling starter pack update! Many more modellers have joined Bluesky recently so this update is overdue. Pls keep on sending suggestions! (bio should contain experience relevant for this pack)
IDModelling pack 1: go.bsky.app/86Ao1a5
IDModelling pack 2 : go.bsky.app/2oBB7KX
IDModelling pack 1: go.bsky.app/86Ao1a5
IDModelling pack 2 : go.bsky.app/2oBB7KX
July 1, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Great way to stay in touch with all of the amazing infectious disease modeling work happening these days:
Reposted by Spencer J Fox
"The money the government sends to Harvard is not a subsidy to advance the university's mission. It's a payment for the role Harvard plays in advancing the research mission of the U.S."
"This is larger than any individual grant. What we are losing is a future."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
"This is larger than any individual grant. What we are losing is a future."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Here Is All the Science at Risk in Trump’s Clash With Harvard (Gift Article)
More than 900 research grants worth $2.6 billion are in jeopardy. So is the 80-year-old model of American science.
www.nytimes.com
June 23, 2025 at 2:40 PM
"The money the government sends to Harvard is not a subsidy to advance the university's mission. It's a payment for the role Harvard plays in advancing the research mission of the U.S."
"This is larger than any individual grant. What we are losing is a future."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
"This is larger than any individual grant. What we are losing is a future."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Thank you to Adam for summarizing all of these thoughts so succinctly! Go give this a read to learn about what we knew and now know about controlling pandemics
New piece on why it’s unhelpful to characterise COVID debate as ‘lockdowns are bad’ vs ‘lockdowns are good’ when it was really about people who claimed that COVID was 100x less fatal than it was + optimal to have a massive epidemic immediately before vaccine… vs those who sense checked these claims.
Restrictions had unequal impacts, but the pandemic itself did too. - Boston Review
Adam Kucharski responds to Stephen Macedo and Frances Lee.
www.bostonreview.net
June 20, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Thank you to Adam for summarizing all of these thoughts so succinctly! Go give this a read to learn about what we knew and now know about controlling pandemics