(((Josh)))
gefgest.bsky.social
(((Josh)))
@gefgest.bsky.social
Philly by way of South Florida
In 2006 Republicans won landslide reelections in CA, CT (to a first full term after the previous R incumbent resigned in scandal), and HI, as Democrats won landslide reelections in WY, OK, TN, and KS
January 5, 2026 at 9:09 PM
It's possible fewer homicides would have occurred with more gun cases filed, especially when homicides were only down to 334 by 2022, but given homicides jumped sharply nationwide in that period it's hard to believe the rough halving in gun cases filed then played much role either way.
December 22, 2025 at 5:15 PM
This graph shows fewer federal gun cases under Biden than in Trump's first term, with a collapse in gun cases also coinciding with a collapse in murders. Baltimore reported 348 homicides in 2019, 202 in 2024, and 133 so far this year. homicides.news.baltimoresun.com
December 22, 2025 at 5:15 PM
It's especially clear averaged quarterly to smooth volatility fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OETT
FRED Graph
FRED Graph
fred.stlouisfed.org
December 9, 2025 at 7:53 PM
For the last two years and change the other three regions have been moving sideways as the South collapsed fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OETw
FRED Graph
FRED Graph
fred.stlouisfed.org
December 9, 2025 at 7:53 PM
JB: How will Republicans ever win elections again?

MY: Well they’ll probably win enough Senate races next November to hold the Senate at least another three years, letting them secure majorities on SCOTUS and other federal courts to reduce their need to win free and fair elections.

Replies:
December 4, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Like his district, Giménez (as Miami's then-mayor) voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 before flipping the House seat as a Trumper in 2020 and voting to overturn the election. This is bottom-up.
The descent into mafia-style governance continues
Gimenez on Hegseth: "These are anonymous whistleblowers saying something happened here, so I smell a rat. I'm pretty sure the Secretary of Defense had nothing to do w/something like that. It's just a way of distracting from what really happened in DC last week ... "
December 1, 2025 at 4:55 PM
If they’re dumb then why fight arguments to repeal them?
November 3, 2025 at 10:06 PM
If you've never heard someone lament paper straws you don't know enough people who lack graduate degrees in Berkeley, CA.
November 3, 2025 at 5:04 PM
It's something normies complain about IRL all the time. It's the sort of small nuisance people notice.
November 3, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Circa 2008 at a deli in my PBC hometown my father once pointed out Theresa LePore was at a table near ours. (He used an impolite word to refer to her.)
November 3, 2025 at 4:22 PM
If a non-Haitian did this in a different setting I’d quickly dismiss them as pretentious, but a Haitian festival seems like the sort of place where this would seem perfectly fine
Jeremy W. Peters identifies the tell-tale sign of “leftist dogma” in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social: pronouncing Haiti’s name correctly
October 29, 2025 at 10:48 AM
The proportion of academics, particularly in the humanities and social sciences, who have zero sense of self-preservation continues to astound me
October 27, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Dinkins
October 27, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Their steering committee includes a psychology professor and a professor of counseling. None are in engineering, math, statistics, a natural science, computer science, or a similar or related interdisciplinary field. myuff.org/steering-com...
Steering Committee – United Faculty of Florida
myuff.org
October 27, 2025 at 4:27 PM
No one listed in United Faculty of Florida leadership is in a STEM field (unless finance counts), though one is a "Latinx" woman "passionate about decolonizing social structures and interpersonal relations" whose teaching has "centered… queer, trans, and BIPOC artists." myuff.org/uff-officers...
United Faculty of Florida Statewide Officers and Staff – United Faculty of Florida
myuff.org
October 27, 2025 at 4:27 PM
This definitely feels like the one popular reform on which the most vocal academics On Here have the most out-of-touch views and by choosing total resistance over cooperation only risk making themselves even more increasingly politically irrelevant. (Are STEM profs even making an issue?)
Just setting people up to be targeted and mobbed online
October 27, 2025 at 4:27 PM
October 27, 2025 at 3:11 PM
He thinks they're good. That was kind of his point.
October 27, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Clearly not familiar enough to know who was the last actual Democratic Socialist to be elected mayor
October 23, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Even sillier. The previous election of a democratic socialist as mayor did the opposite of establishing a positive sea change for the economic left in either the City of New York or the US.
October 22, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Reposted by (((Josh)))
Early in Trump's second term, the reduction in Canadian tourists visiting the US was mostly just foregone day trips. But now short-term excursions have stabilized, and Canadians are instead increasingly avoiding long-term vacations in the US
October 22, 2025 at 12:43 PM
She defeated a scandal-tarred incumbent by 2.3 as her district swung from Biden by 14.5 to Harris by 1.3 (and it probably flipped from Cuomo in 2018 by around 20 points to Zeldin by mid-single digits in 2022).
Gillen has graduated to Moulton-tier 'Needs a Primary' status. She's in a Harris district.
October 16, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Daniel Biss is 48. For comparison Pelosi was 47 when she first won a special election in 1987.
October 14, 2025 at 5:10 PM