(((Josh)))
gefgest.bsky.social
(((Josh)))
@gefgest.bsky.social
Philly by way of South Florida
This graph shows fewer federal gun cases under Biden than in Trump's first term, with a collapse in gun cases also coinciding with a collapse in murders. Baltimore reported 348 homicides in 2019, 202 in 2024, and 133 so far this year. homicides.news.baltimoresun.com
December 22, 2025 at 5:15 PM
JB: How will Republicans ever win elections again?

MY: Well they’ll probably win enough Senate races next November to hold the Senate at least another three years, letting them secure majorities on SCOTUS and other federal courts to reduce their need to win free and fair elections.

Replies:
December 4, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Like his district, Giménez (as Miami's then-mayor) voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 before flipping the House seat as a Trumper in 2020 and voting to overturn the election. This is bottom-up.
The descent into mafia-style governance continues
Gimenez on Hegseth: "These are anonymous whistleblowers saying something happened here, so I smell a rat. I'm pretty sure the Secretary of Defense had nothing to do w/something like that. It's just a way of distracting from what really happened in DC last week ... "
December 1, 2025 at 4:55 PM
If a non-Haitian did this in a different setting I’d quickly dismiss them as pretentious, but a Haitian festival seems like the sort of place where this would seem perfectly fine
Jeremy W. Peters identifies the tell-tale sign of “leftist dogma” in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social: pronouncing Haiti’s name correctly
October 29, 2025 at 10:48 AM
This definitely feels like the one popular reform on which the most vocal academics On Here have the most out-of-touch views and by choosing total resistance over cooperation only risk making themselves even more increasingly politically irrelevant. (Are STEM profs even making an issue?)
Just setting people up to be targeted and mobbed online
October 27, 2025 at 4:27 PM
October 27, 2025 at 3:11 PM
He thinks they're good. That was kind of his point.
October 27, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Reposted by (((Josh)))
Early in Trump's second term, the reduction in Canadian tourists visiting the US was mostly just foregone day trips. But now short-term excursions have stabilized, and Canadians are instead increasingly avoiding long-term vacations in the US
October 22, 2025 at 12:43 PM
She defeated a scandal-tarred incumbent by 2.3 as her district swung from Biden by 14.5 to Harris by 1.3 (and it probably flipped from Cuomo in 2018 by around 20 points to Zeldin by mid-single digits in 2022).
Gillen has graduated to Moulton-tier 'Needs a Primary' status. She's in a Harris district.
October 16, 2025 at 7:08 PM
I do think it's worth emphasizing that grocery inflation in August looking year-over-year was the fastest in two years and stronger than any month from March 2015 to March 2020, and restaurant inflation was stronger than in any month from June 2009 to April 2021!
Inflation for food was legitimately much worse between January 2021 and January 2024 than it has been for the last six months, that's why
October 10, 2025 at 2:16 PM
When we were there for five days a few weeks ago my boyfriend and I didn't get checked once on any metro or train ride. It actually made me assume that was normal and a reflection of high social trust.
Anecdotal, but I've been in Copenhagen for 24 hours, and I've had my ticket checked 3 (three) times in the metro. I've taken a dozen trips, maybe, so that's 1 in 4 chances of being checked
September 22, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Reposted by (((Josh)))
September 18, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Well, but he was also party leader when they won back four seats (counting NY-3) even as NYS swung more to Trump than any other state. (I don't personally blame Jacobs for New Yorkers and their diaspora going coocoo bananas after the pandemic.)
To state the obvious, the correct response to this threat is "your offer is acceptable. More than acceptable, welcome. Wait, aren't you the asshole who cost us the House in 2022, what are you still doing here in the first place?"
September 19, 2025 at 3:03 AM
I agree with this in principle but specifying KS, OH, and MO and abortion is wild. Voters in all three states post-Dobbs either passed constitutional amendments codifying abortion rights (OH, MO) or rejected one that would overturn judiciary-affirmed rights (KS)!
I remain puzzled by people who think everything is at risk and conclude that we should do exactly what they already wanted www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...

Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.
September 18, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Small N but Democrats are likely to have their worst showing in an open gubernatorial race in NJ since Kean beat Florio in 1981, narrowly flipping the seat while Reagan was still popular.

Until his party sees a real electoral backlash, they likely see little incentive to resist.
This is what really stands out to me about the widespread cowardice on display in this moment from corporate and college leaders: the people they're capitulating to while visibly quaking in fear are absolutely hated by an enormous majority of the national population.
Imagine capitulating to a president that is so underwater that he doesn't even have 50% approval with white people as a white supremacist
September 18, 2025 at 3:27 AM
We can't even get the President to enforce a Congressionally enacted, SCOTUS-endorsed ban on TikTok because he sees the app as helping him politically and his supporters at best don't care.
Making the algos a campaign villain seems like the kind of move that would work with voters of all ideological persuasions.
September 13, 2025 at 9:19 PM
When they say the problem is I said “the slaveowner raped his slave” instead of “the enslaver raped his enslaved person”
August 26, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Yglesias has been a doomer about American democracy literally since before the 2016 Iowa caucuses www.vox.com/2015/3/2/812... I don't see how he hasn't been proven basically right
August 15, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Reposted by (((Josh)))
Been going through the PANYNJ's annual reports (all on their website in well-scanned) (h/t to @kurtraschke.com!), and there's some real gems in there, like this snippet from the 1992 annual report
August 15, 2025 at 1:57 AM
I'm old enough to remember when oil prices kept rising toward a record high and Democrats under Pelosi/Reid pushed for a windfall profits tax they ultimately never enacted (but it was popular and arguably helped them win) taxfoundation.org/blog/senate-...
August 15, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Absolutely demented thing to say about an openly gay man
August 15, 2025 at 8:04 PM
I do agree Kavanaugh is unlikely to vote to overrule Obergefell as an Associate Justice
Mark is right as usual. You don't get those occasional gullible "is Kavanaugh a new liberal swing vote?" stories without SCOTUS throwing a bone every year. Denying cert here will be the bone.
Excellent article. And vital point:

"[Other attacks on LGBTQ rights] merit far more attention and scorn than a long-shot bid to take down marriage equality."

Hard agree. And I say that as a gay married person with personal stake at the issue.

🧵 Brief thread
August 14, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Grocery prices fell in July and only rose 0.954% annualized since January. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0...
August 12, 2025 at 3:35 PM
They’re listening to Democrats in B+T areas where Trump surged last year precisely in response to numerous positions Mamdani either holds or both held and only dubiously rejects.
specifically, schumer & jeffires dragging their feet has become a sticking point

now, may they have reasons for that - they want to negotiate some stuff for an endorsement (part of the usual give & take of these things) or just want to delay it for maximum impact
August 12, 2025 at 3:12 PM