Edward Walker
@gnuggat.bsky.social
Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.
Thread. NB: “… the NDS explicitly repudiates the concept of alliance commitments in general, much less those backed by a U.S. nuclear guarantee. They are not hiding the ball here.”
With the aid of chocolate I have brought myself to read the just-released National Defense Strategy. A few quick reactions: 1/7
media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...
media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...
media.defense.gov
January 25, 2026 at 8:19 PM
Thread. NB: “… the NDS explicitly repudiates the concept of alliance commitments in general, much less those backed by a U.S. nuclear guarantee. They are not hiding the ball here.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Reposted by Edward Walker
Russia is using Belarus to threaten Europe with Oreshnik missiles, Zelenskyy says. Shahed drone operators strike Ukraine from Belarusian soil, while local industry and trade help supply components for Putin's war.
January 25, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Russia is using Belarus to threaten Europe with Oreshnik missiles, Zelenskyy says. Shahed drone operators strike Ukraine from Belarusian soil, while local industry and trade help supply components for Putin's war.
Reposted by Edward Walker
After a Border Patrol agent killed Alex Pretti today, attorney general Pam Bondi demanded that Minnesota end “sanctuary policies,” work with ICE, and — wait for it — give the DOJ access to its unredacted voter rolls.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
AG Bondi demands access to Minnesota voter rolls after fatal Border Patrol shooting
Her demand came as Minneapolis was reeling from a second fatal shooting by a federal agent this month.
www.democracydocket.com
January 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM
After a Border Patrol agent killed Alex Pretti today, attorney general Pam Bondi demanded that Minnesota end “sanctuary policies,” work with ICE, and — wait for it — give the DOJ access to its unredacted voter rolls.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
Reposted by Edward Walker
🚨 SCHUMER just now: “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
January 24, 2026 at 11:57 PM
🚨 SCHUMER just now: “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Entirely consistent w the video. My thanks to this brave woman.
You have to read this. Firsthand affidavit from one of the women who was there and recording the video. She talks about how Alex Pretti was directing traffic when she arrived. She watched him be killed in front of her. She's afraid to go home, worried she'll be arrested.
January 25, 2026 at 2:09 AM
Entirely consistent w the video. My thanks to this brave woman.
The next rung up the ladder of escalation: if/when armed agents of the state (whether federal, state, or local) fire on each other. Again, IMO v hard to see where that wld go, but for sure there’s a non-negligible risk of this turning into smthg reasonably classified as “internal war.”
The Star Tribune reports that federal agents "attempted to order local police from the scene" where a man was shot and killed by feds this morning, but Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara refused and "instructed his officers to preserve the scene."
Live: Man shot and killed by federal agents in south Minneapolis this morning, police chief says
A video appears to shows federal agents wrestling a man to the ground then shooting him.
www.startribune.com
January 24, 2026 at 11:57 PM
The next rung up the ladder of escalation: if/when armed agents of the state (whether federal, state, or local) fire on each other. Again, IMO v hard to see where that wld go, but for sure there’s a non-negligible risk of this turning into smthg reasonably classified as “internal war.”
The video from the woman in the pink jacket. Very hard to see how any reasonable person cld argue this wasn’t murder/execution. But ofc we’re not dealing w reasonable people. www.nytimes.com/video/embedd...
Video:
www.nytimes.com
January 24, 2026 at 11:08 PM
The video from the woman in the pink jacket. Very hard to see how any reasonable person cld argue this wasn’t murder/execution. But ofc we’re not dealing w reasonable people. www.nytimes.com/video/embedd...
Reposted by Edward Walker
Hmmm.
There were 35 US strikes on Caribbean boats between Sept 2 and Jan 3 (one every 3 days). None in the 21 days since then. Funny that.
January 24, 2026 at 10:56 PM
Hmmm.
Yup. Also unprecedented, which IMO makes it all the more difficult to accurately forecast where this goes.
Ian Bremmer of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group: “The United States is the most powerful country in the world.
“The United States is also the most dysfunctional political system, by far, among advanced industrial economies.
“That’s an uncertain and dangerous place for the world to be in.”
“The United States is also the most dysfunctional political system, by far, among advanced industrial economies.
“That’s an uncertain and dangerous place for the world to be in.”
January 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM
Yup. Also unprecedented, which IMO makes it all the more difficult to accurately forecast where this goes.
The video (or possibly photos) by the woman in the pink jacket sure looks like it’s going to be revealing.
Wow. Murder, full stop. Hard to believe this isnt going to really set things off.
Here is the video. Trigger warning: MURDER
January 24, 2026 at 7:29 PM
The video (or possibly photos) by the woman in the pink jacket sure looks like it’s going to be revealing.
Yup.
On the execution in Minnesota: Obviously, the individuals involved should be held accountable. But responsibility goes to the top of ICE and CBP, and DHS. Their appropriations come up next week in the senate. Not a cent for DHS without pulling ICE and CBP off the streets, in MN and everywhere else.
January 24, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Yup.
Another shocking video.
Minneapolis protester as he's being brutalized by feds: "You're gonna have to kill me! You're gonna have to kill me! I've done nothing wrong! My name is Matthew James! I'm a US citizen! You're gonna kill me! Is that what you want?" (You can hear his wife screaming)
January 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Another shocking video.
DHS is claiming the victim was armed w photo of a handgun. Doesnt look like that given ICE agents’ behavior or video but we’ll see. Given all the witnesses, hard to believe there won’t be clear evidence one way or the other, or that they cld plant smthg. Wldn’t justify regardless.
Wow. Murder, full stop. Hard to believe this isnt going to really set things off.
Here is the video. Trigger warning: MURDER
January 24, 2026 at 5:35 PM
DHS is claiming the victim was armed w photo of a handgun. Doesnt look like that given ICE agents’ behavior or video but we’ll see. Given all the witnesses, hard to believe there won’t be clear evidence one way or the other, or that they cld plant smthg. Wldn’t justify regardless.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Ukraine destroyed over 9,000 Russian armored vehicles in three years. Russia replaced them all.
Here's the catch: they did it by draining Soviet-era storage from 10,400 vehicles down to 1,800, according to @Rebel44CZ.
Production adds just 900 vehicles a year. Russia loses 2,300+.
Here's the catch: they did it by draining Soviet-era storage from 10,400 vehicles down to 1,800, according to @Rebel44CZ.
Production adds just 900 vehicles a year. Russia loses 2,300+.
January 24, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Ukraine destroyed over 9,000 Russian armored vehicles in three years. Russia replaced them all.
Here's the catch: they did it by draining Soviet-era storage from 10,400 vehicles down to 1,800, according to @Rebel44CZ.
Production adds just 900 vehicles a year. Russia loses 2,300+.
Here's the catch: they did it by draining Soviet-era storage from 10,400 vehicles down to 1,800, according to @Rebel44CZ.
Production adds just 900 vehicles a year. Russia loses 2,300+.
NB: “But they just don’t get the nuance and politics of ED.” Yup, but add don’t really care (eg “some semblance”).
Not really. They are trying to communicate something (anything) that preserves some semblance of extended deterrence—possibly because someone in the building said “we can’t just abandon our allies” or “we can’t just give Europe to Russia!” But they just don’t get the nuance and politics of ED.
January 24, 2026 at 5:19 PM
NB: “But they just don’t get the nuance and politics of ED.” Yup, but add don’t really care (eg “some semblance”).
Reposted by Edward Walker
All of this is fucking senseless. Minnesota did not have an immigration problem. Trump sent his Nazi thugs here because he's racist against Somali people and to own libs like Tim Walz. Now two Minnesotans are dead and Minneapolis is on the verge of going up in flames. None. Of. This. Was. Necessary.
January 24, 2026 at 4:55 PM
All of this is fucking senseless. Minnesota did not have an immigration problem. Trump sent his Nazi thugs here because he's racist against Somali people and to own libs like Tim Walz. Now two Minnesotans are dead and Minneapolis is on the verge of going up in flames. None. Of. This. Was. Necessary.
Reposted by Edward Walker
This wld take years in whatever territory RU ends up controlling. IMO <1% chance it wld contribute anything meaningful in territory controlled by Kyiv (regardless of what the Kremlin intimates to DC). Moscow doesn’t have the money/wherewithal to do another Chechnya post-2001, plus UKR much bigger.
Russian war bloggers claim Putin allegedly agreed to reparations for Ukraine and to rebuild its energy infrastructure, but there is no official confirmation. The information remains unverified. #Ukraine
January 24, 2026 at 4:56 PM
This wld take years in whatever territory RU ends up controlling. IMO <1% chance it wld contribute anything meaningful in territory controlled by Kyiv (regardless of what the Kremlin intimates to DC). Moscow doesn’t have the money/wherewithal to do another Chechnya post-2001, plus UKR much bigger.
Reposted by Edward Walker
So, the document says U.S. will not engage on the conventional end--that's Europe's problem, but, if allies seems poised to lose the conventional conflict, the U.S. could consider nuclear escalation to stop Russia (at the risk of inviting Russian nuclear attack on the U.S.) Totally not credible (2)
January 24, 2026 at 12:39 PM
So, the document says U.S. will not engage on the conventional end--that's Europe's problem, but, if allies seems poised to lose the conventional conflict, the U.S. could consider nuclear escalation to stop Russia (at the risk of inviting Russian nuclear attack on the U.S.) Totally not credible (2)
Reposted by Edward Walker
I just spoke with the White House after another horrific shooting by federal agents this morning. Minnesota has had it. This is sickening.
The President must end this operation. Pull the thousands of violent, untrained officers out of Minnesota. Now.
The President must end this operation. Pull the thousands of violent, untrained officers out of Minnesota. Now.
January 24, 2026 at 4:04 PM
I just spoke with the White House after another horrific shooting by federal agents this morning. Minnesota has had it. This is sickening.
The President must end this operation. Pull the thousands of violent, untrained officers out of Minnesota. Now.
The President must end this operation. Pull the thousands of violent, untrained officers out of Minnesota. Now.
Wow. Murder, full stop. Hard to believe this isnt going to really set things off.
January 24, 2026 at 4:34 PM
Wow. Murder, full stop. Hard to believe this isnt going to really set things off.
Keep thinking about this as I try to prepare for a possible power outage/heating loss tonight w temperatures going below zero (F) tonight and through the coming week.
Everyone freezing on the East Coast or in the Midwest remember: Kyiv has the same weather, except that hundreds of thousands of people don't have electricity, heating or running water
January 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Keep thinking about this as I try to prepare for a possible power outage/heating loss tonight w temperatures going below zero (F) tonight and through the coming week.