Edward Walker
@gnuggat.bsky.social
Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.
Pretty pretty good. The Dim-Wit plan it is.
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
November 26, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Pretty pretty good. The Dim-Wit plan it is.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Three things about the Witkoff tapes:
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
EXCLUSIVE: US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch Ukraine plans to Trump, in audio files reviewed by Bloomberg
Witkoff Advised Russia on How to Pitch Ukraine Plan to Trump
US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, fresh from the triumph of the Gaza peace deal, held a phone call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest they work together on a similar plan for Ukraine — and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with Donald Trump.
bloom.bg
November 25, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Three things about the Witkoff tapes:
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
“RU Railways, the country's biggest commercial employer… has built up a… $50.8 billion debt pile… [RU RR] employs about 700,000 people, has suffered a fall in revenues amid a sharp slowdown in RU's war econ while debt costs have soared...”
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:38 PM
“RU Railways, the country's biggest commercial employer… has built up a… $50.8 billion debt pile… [RU RR] employs about 700,000 people, has suffered a fall in revenues amid a sharp slowdown in RU's war econ while debt costs have soared...”
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
Reposted by Edward Walker
News: US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi
US army secretary Dan Driscoll is in UAE for talks with Ukraine’s military intel chief Kyrylo Budanov and a Russian delegation as Washington pushes a peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war. @financialtimes.com
on.ft.com/43Og0fj
US army secretary Dan Driscoll is in UAE for talks with Ukraine’s military intel chief Kyrylo Budanov and a Russian delegation as Washington pushes a peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war. @financialtimes.com
on.ft.com/43Og0fj
US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi
Army secretary Dan Driscoll meets delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in push for deal to end Kremlin’s invasion
on.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:00 AM
News: US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi
US army secretary Dan Driscoll is in UAE for talks with Ukraine’s military intel chief Kyrylo Budanov and a Russian delegation as Washington pushes a peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war. @financialtimes.com
on.ft.com/43Og0fj
US army secretary Dan Driscoll is in UAE for talks with Ukraine’s military intel chief Kyrylo Budanov and a Russian delegation as Washington pushes a peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war. @financialtimes.com
on.ft.com/43Og0fj
I wld add, though, that IMO most EURs and most Americans still do share values, despite Trump and much of the American electorate going off the rails. Best to assume the worst policy-wise ofc, but I don’t believe the divorce is final yet. Certainly hope not.
This is true for the transatlantic defense relationship. Without shared values, it is more difficult to see a US pledge to risk nuclear war for distant NATO allies as credible.
What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.
November 25, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I wld add, though, that IMO most EURs and most Americans still do share values, despite Trump and much of the American electorate going off the rails. Best to assume the worst policy-wise ofc, but I don’t believe the divorce is final yet. Certainly hope not.
Yup.
This is true for the transatlantic defense relationship. Without shared values, it is more difficult to see a US pledge to risk nuclear war for distant NATO allies as credible.
What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.
November 25, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Yup.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Still reeling from the Stanford report on Brexit. Reduced GDP by up to 8% and investment by as much as 18%. The UK Treasury would have £40 billion more each year if Britain had remained in the EU. Devastating self-immolation.
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Other
siepr.stanford.edu
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Still reeling from the Stanford report on Brexit. Reduced GDP by up to 8% and investment by as much as 18%. The UK Treasury would have £40 billion more each year if Britain had remained in the EU. Devastating self-immolation.
Sums it up v nicely: “[Putin is] fighting not for villages in UKR. He’s fighting not for territory in UKR, not even for rare earths in UKR. He is fighting for a much bigger outcome… He wants the US, first of all, and EUR to admit that RU has its exclusive sphere of influence…” Yup.
Russia’s tiny advances in 2025 sold Putin on inevitable victory in Ukraine wapo.st/4ijY5Dl
Russia’s tiny advances in 2025 sold Putin on inevitable victory in Ukraine
Grinding progress for Russia on the battlefield this year has resulted in thousands of casualties but enough progress for Putin to refuse any compromises in diplomacy.
wapo.st
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Sums it up v nicely: “[Putin is] fighting not for villages in UKR. He’s fighting not for territory in UKR, not even for rare earths in UKR. He is fighting for a much bigger outcome… He wants the US, first of all, and EUR to admit that RU has its exclusive sphere of influence…” Yup.
Hard to believe Macron actually believes this. I don’t think he’s a fool, so I suspect this is posturing and mostly directed at conveying to his domestic audience that he and other EUR leaders are making an effort re a settlement but also at managing Trump
& have a so-called “seat at the table.”
& have a so-called “seat at the table.”
❗️The negotiations are gaining new momentum, there is a chance to achieve real progress towards a lasting peace in Ukraine, – Macron.
“We are at a turning point. An absolute condition for a solid agreement must be strong security guarantees.”
“We are at a turning point. An absolute condition for a solid agreement must be strong security guarantees.”
November 25, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Hard to believe Macron actually believes this. I don’t think he’s a fool, so I suspect this is posturing and mostly directed at conveying to his domestic audience that he and other EUR leaders are making an effort re a settlement but also at managing Trump
& have a so-called “seat at the table.”
& have a so-called “seat at the table.”
Overwhelmingly most imp “security guarantee” for UKR will be a UKR mil capable of inflicting losses on RU that exceed any possible gain. The only intl guarantee that wld be meaningful IMO wld be significant force in harm’s way. Even that is is no “guarantee.” Declarative stuff mostly meaningless.
NATO Secretary Rutte:
At the moment,we’ve a couple of allies stating explicitly we’re against #Ukraine accessing to NATO
That’s why it’s so important for the immediate future to make sure that security guarantees are in place post the peace deal,which will make it impossible for Russia to try again
At the moment,we’ve a couple of allies stating explicitly we’re against #Ukraine accessing to NATO
That’s why it’s so important for the immediate future to make sure that security guarantees are in place post the peace deal,which will make it impossible for Russia to try again
November 25, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Overwhelmingly most imp “security guarantee” for UKR will be a UKR mil capable of inflicting losses on RU that exceed any possible gain. The only intl guarantee that wld be meaningful IMO wld be significant force in harm’s way. Even that is is no “guarantee.” Declarative stuff mostly meaningless.
Re the WoR article by @ryanevans.bsky.social, the compellence part at the end is IMO very good, but there’re many proposed provisions that RU will never accept (eg anything implying reciprocal limitations on force deployments, a PKF, or war crimes prosecutions for leadership even if short of Putin).
November 25, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Re the WoR article by @ryanevans.bsky.social, the compellence part at the end is IMO very good, but there’re many proposed provisions that RU will never accept (eg anything implying reciprocal limitations on force deployments, a PKF, or war crimes prosecutions for leadership even if short of Putin).
Reposted by Edward Walker
I have a new article today in @warontherocks.bsky.social that attempts to lead Washington to a different approach to negotiations to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. I offer 15 principles the belligerents should agree to before negotiations can begin
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-15...
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-15...
A 15-Point Plan to Get to a Ukrainian-Russian Settlement
I do not know the origins of the Trump administration’s 28-point peace plan to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War, but I can safely say it has caused quite a
warontherocks.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:14 PM
I have a new article today in @warontherocks.bsky.social that attempts to lead Washington to a different approach to negotiations to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. I offer 15 principles the belligerents should agree to before negotiations can begin
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-15...
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-15...
Reposted by Edward Walker
Ukraine’s air defense had a strong night, with three ballistic missiles aimed at Kyiv, intercepted by the Patriot system, which “performed flawlessly,” according to Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat. He also confirmed at least one Kinzhal was intercepted. Not all remaining missiles hit their targets.
November 25, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Ukraine’s air defense had a strong night, with three ballistic missiles aimed at Kyiv, intercepted by the Patriot system, which “performed flawlessly,” according to Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat. He also confirmed at least one Kinzhal was intercepted. Not all remaining missiles hit their targets.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Russia showing just how serious it is about peace tonight, launching waves of missiles and drones at Kyiv. Air defenses are working to knock them down. A series of explosions just rocked Ukraine’s capital. It’ll be another long night.
November 24, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Russia showing just how serious it is about peace tonight, launching waves of missiles and drones at Kyiv. Air defenses are working to knock them down. A series of explosions just rocked Ukraine’s capital. It’ll be another long night.
What an extraordinary disgrace.
The situation these judges are being put in for doing their work is unbelievable. They can’t use any US services - and not just for work, in their private lives too.
November 24, 2025 at 9:14 PM
What an extraordinary disgrace.
Not good. Reminded that it’s going to be the battlefield that drives any eventual settlement (aka there will be no political settlement until a battlefield solution enables one). I don’t think we’re very close to that moment but for sure I cld be wrong, and right now it’s UKR that’s on its heels.
Deputy Commander Maksym Zhorin warns that while everyone is busy dissecting the Geneva talks, the front is deteriorating fast. He says the Russia's recent gains are the most rapid he’s seen in a long time, and without urgent action, some areas could reach critical condition.
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Not good. Reminded that it’s going to be the battlefield that drives any eventual settlement (aka there will be no political settlement until a battlefield solution enables one). I don’t think we’re very close to that moment but for sure I cld be wrong, and right now it’s UKR that’s on its heels.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Looking at this photo of the US-Ukraine Geneva meeting, I wondered who was in the delegation. ABC has the list:
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
No Russia or Ukraine experts (although US Ambassador to Ukraine Davis & SACEUR Grynkewich were there).
Who is the guy with the notebook? Andy Baker. 1/2
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
No Russia or Ukraine experts (although US Ambassador to Ukraine Davis & SACEUR Grynkewich were there).
Who is the guy with the notebook? Andy Baker. 1/2
November 24, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Looking at this photo of the US-Ukraine Geneva meeting, I wondered who was in the delegation. ABC has the list:
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
No Russia or Ukraine experts (although US Ambassador to Ukraine Davis & SACEUR Grynkewich were there).
Who is the guy with the notebook? Andy Baker. 1/2
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
No Russia or Ukraine experts (although US Ambassador to Ukraine Davis & SACEUR Grynkewich were there).
Who is the guy with the notebook? Andy Baker. 1/2
Exactement. Mettre la balle dans e camp de Poutine. On verra.
L'essentiel est fait : mettre la balle dans e camp de Poutine, s'il refuse de continuer à discuter, l'Ukraine pourra dire que son plan était une manœuvre, ce qui n'est que la pure vérité!
November 24, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Exactement. Mettre la balle dans e camp de Poutine. On verra.
Every UKR concern” addressed Admittedly not the same as “resolved,” but either this is total b.s. or what’s left will be 100% unacceptable to Moscow.
The original 28-point peace plan no longer exists, according to Presidential Office adviser Oleksandr Bevz after the Geneva talks. He said some points were removed, others revised, and that every Ukrainian concern was addressed.
November 24, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Every UKR concern” addressed Admittedly not the same as “resolved,” but either this is total b.s. or what’s left will be 100% unacceptable to Moscow.
More on this. Who knows where this goes but IMO v unlikely it leads to a ceasefire that lasts.
The 28-point Trump plan that everyone saw no longer exists: several points have been removed and others amended, Interfax reports, citing Oleksandr Bevz, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office.
November 24, 2025 at 2:22 PM
More on this. Who knows where this goes but IMO v unlikely it leads to a ceasefire that lasts.
There are so many poison pill provisions that shld be totally unacceptable to UKR but IMO the most important is the one limiting the size of its military. One absolutely minimal condition for UKR coming out of any agreement is an unconstrained right to defend the territory it controls. Full stop.
⚡️ Update: US peace plan cut down to 19 points after talks with Ukraine, FT reports.
The Financial Times' sources did not specify which points were removed.
The Financial Times' sources did not specify which points were removed.
Ukraine, US draft updated peace plan during 'productive' Geneva talks
"I think we all recognize that part of getting a final end to this war will require for Ukraine to feel that it is safe and it is never going to be invaded or attacked again," U.S. Secretary of State ...
kyivindependent.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:20 PM
There are so many poison pill provisions that shld be totally unacceptable to UKR but IMO the most important is the one limiting the size of its military. One absolutely minimal condition for UKR coming out of any agreement is an unconstrained right to defend the territory it controls. Full stop.
Strap in. One thing an American attack on Venezuela wld do right now is distract from the ridiculous “peace” plan, which might make it easier for the Trump admin to back off it.
Turkish Airlines, Brazil's Gol, Colombia's Avianca and TAP Air Portugal have canceled their flights departing from Caracas. This follows the FAA issuing a security NOTAM cautioning aircraft operators about potential dangers in Venezuelan airspace that looks like this today:
November 23, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Strap in. One thing an American attack on Venezuela wld do right now is distract from the ridiculous “peace” plan, which might make it easier for the Trump admin to back off it.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Two weeks then
Rubio: We will make progress soon. It may not be Thursday. It could be Friday, Monday. The process continues.
November 23, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Two weeks then
No surprise.
2/According to the agency's sources, not only were some key officials in the U.S. administration, including Secretary of State Rubio, unaware of the document's development, but even Trump himself learned about it at the last moment — though he approved the plan after reviewing it.
November 23, 2025 at 8:57 PM
No surprise.
IMO these talks are essentially performative, since there’s no way Moscow will agree to anything Kyiv cld accept and vice versa. They’re about UKR/EUR trying to manage Trump and (possibly) DC looking for a face-saving way to back off the ridiculous 28-point “peace” plan.
Zelensky says the Geneva talks have been intense and productive, with both US and EU sides engaged. He notes signs that Trump’s team is listening and emphasizes Ukraine’s priority: a reliable peace, real security, and respect for those who sacrificed. Talks will continue late into the night..
November 23, 2025 at 8:48 PM
IMO these talks are essentially performative, since there’s no way Moscow will agree to anything Kyiv cld accept and vice versa. They’re about UKR/EUR trying to manage Trump and (possibly) DC looking for a face-saving way to back off the ridiculous 28-point “peace” plan.