Edward Walker
@gnuggat.bsky.social
Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.
Thread. NB: “Russia recorded the world’s highest level of internet censorship and shutdowns in 2025, with disruptions totaling 37,166 hours.”
Russia’s State Duma has approved in its first reading a bill that would oblige Russian operators to shut down any communications, including mail services, at the request of the FSB in the event of “security threats.” What exactly constitutes such threats remains unclear.
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January 27, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Thread. NB: “Russia recorded the world’s highest level of internet censorship and shutdowns in 2025, with disruptions totaling 37,166 hours.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
I disagree. You would weaken the link with EUCOM, you would weaken the link with US nuclear forces, you would reduce the importance of a strong US four-star with a major stake in European security. Barring a bigger crisis, the time for a European SACEUR is when the re-balancing is further along.
SACEUR should go to a European. End of story.
Rutte on the idea of a European pillar in NATO. Says it is an "empty word". Positive if it means "division of labour", but "lot of duplication" and "Putin will love it" if it means "a sort of European Defence Force" www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
January 27, 2026 at 1:24 PM
I disagree. You would weaken the link with EUCOM, you would weaken the link with US nuclear forces, you would reduce the importance of a strong US four-star with a major stake in European security. Barring a bigger crisis, the time for a European SACEUR is when the re-balancing is further along.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Nothing to add except maybe amen
IMF chief tells Europe to drop the doom loop
Seven of the 10 best-performing economies in 2025 were EU countries — so Europe should stop talking itself down, says Kristalina Georgieva.
www.politico.eu
January 27, 2026 at 1:41 PM
Nothing to add except maybe amen
Reposted by Edward Walker
Please. This is absurd. Europe can certainly deter Russia and defend itself if its focused and determined. Perpetuating a sense of European helplessness may help Rutte bureaucratically but its 1. wrong 2. prevents action. 3. willfully blind: the US ain't coming to defend Europe.
“If anyone thinks here… that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming,” Nato SecGen Mark Rutte told the European Parliament. “You can’t.”
“It will make things more complicated. I think Putin will love it. So think again.”
as.ft.com/r/25718b02-2...
“It will make things more complicated. I think Putin will love it. So think again.”
as.ft.com/r/25718b02-2...
Europe must stop ‘dreaming’ about defence without US, Rutte warns
[FREE TO READ] Nato chief says continent cannot afford to replace American security umbrella
as.ft.com
January 26, 2026 at 7:49 PM
Please. This is absurd. Europe can certainly deter Russia and defend itself if its focused and determined. Perpetuating a sense of European helplessness may help Rutte bureaucratically but its 1. wrong 2. prevents action. 3. willfully blind: the US ain't coming to defend Europe.
I’ll be v surprised if this happens. If UKR eventually manages to join the EU while the war is going on (which I doubt), the EU will have to address Article 42(7) whereby member states agree to provide "aid and assistance by all the means in their power" if another MS is victim of armed aggression.
Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine plans to become a member of the European Union as early as next year.
January 27, 2026 at 1:53 PM
I’ll be v surprised if this happens. If UKR eventually manages to join the EU while the war is going on (which I doubt), the EU will have to address Article 42(7) whereby member states agree to provide "aid and assistance by all the means in their power" if another MS is victim of armed aggression.
Reposted by Edward Walker
⚡️ European coastal countries warn Russia's shadow fleet, step up maritime safety.
Fourteen European countries warned on Jan. 26 that ships sailing in the Baltic Sea and North Sea under multiple flags may be treated as stateless vessels.
Fourteen European countries warned on Jan. 26 that ships sailing in the Baltic Sea and North Sea under multiple flags may be treated as stateless vessels.
European coastal countries warn Russia's shadow fleet ships, step up maritime safety
Fourteen European countries warned on Jan. 26 that ships sailing in the Baltic Sea and North Sea under multiple flags may be treated as "stateless vessels."
kyivindependent.com
January 27, 2026 at 12:47 PM
⚡️ European coastal countries warn Russia's shadow fleet, step up maritime safety.
Fourteen European countries warned on Jan. 26 that ships sailing in the Baltic Sea and North Sea under multiple flags may be treated as stateless vessels.
Fourteen European countries warned on Jan. 26 that ships sailing in the Baltic Sea and North Sea under multiple flags may be treated as stateless vessels.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Bloomberg reports that the U.S. has officially withdrawn from the Paris Agreement today. The pact commits nearly 200 nations to limiting global warming to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 27, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Bloomberg reports that the U.S. has officially withdrawn from the Paris Agreement today. The pact commits nearly 200 nations to limiting global warming to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Edward Walker
"The French government responded curtly to Mark Rutte after the NATO secretary-general said Europe could not defend itself without the U.S."
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
France snaps back at NATO chief Rutte in feud over Europe’s defense muscle
Paris fumes after NATO secretary-general tells the European Parliament that the continent could not defend itself without America.
www.politico.eu
January 27, 2026 at 1:13 PM
"The French government responded curtly to Mark Rutte after the NATO secretary-general said Europe could not defend itself without the U.S."
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
Reposted by Edward Walker
❗️🇪🇺EU and 🇮🇳India sign historic trade deal
After nearly two decades of negotiations, the EU and India have concluded what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “the largest deal in history.”
After nearly two decades of negotiations, the EU and India have concluded what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “the largest deal in history.”
January 27, 2026 at 1:19 PM
❗️🇪🇺EU and 🇮🇳India sign historic trade deal
After nearly two decades of negotiations, the EU and India have concluded what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “the largest deal in history.”
After nearly two decades of negotiations, the EU and India have concluded what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “the largest deal in history.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Thousands in Murmansk and Severomorsk are without heat in -17°C (1°F) temperatures after a massive Arctic power failure. While officials claim progress and national TV largely ignores the disaster, residents report a prolonged crisis. meduza.io/en/feature/2...
Residents of world’s largest Arctic city left without heat as sub-zero temperatures persist in northern Russia — Meduza
In Russia’s Arctic, Murmansk and the surrounding region, including the city of Severomorsk, have been partially without power since January 23 following damage to power lines operated by the power...
meduza.io
January 27, 2026 at 1:11 AM
Thousands in Murmansk and Severomorsk are without heat in -17°C (1°F) temperatures after a massive Arctic power failure. While officials claim progress and national TV largely ignores the disaster, residents report a prolonged crisis. meduza.io/en/feature/2...
For sure EUR defense is weaker than it shld be even without Trump, and it has lots of challenges, including this. But EUR can’t defend itself? Maybe say something like “hard pressed to defend Estonia.” In any case, dumb thing for him to say at this moment IMO.
true, but how much of EU's current equipment is EU-sourced? Without maintenance parts and constant replacement, US-sourced stocks would dwindle fast.
January 26, 2026 at 6:29 PM
For sure EUR defense is weaker than it shld be even without Trump, and it has lots of challenges, including this. But EUR can’t defend itself? Maybe say something like “hard pressed to defend Estonia.” In any case, dumb thing for him to say at this moment IMO.
Thread. My take too. NB: “Things likely won’t to come to a head until early 2029, when Trump attempts to defy an election loss... When he does, it will pit a historically weak and inept dictator against one of the most powerful civil societies the world has ever seen.” Plus v elaborate federalism.
A year ago, experts foresaw an authoritarian hellscape the US was unlikely to recover from. Now, they’re hopeful, as self-sabotage and civil society resistance undermine Trump’s plans. In this regard, they’re coming around to my own prediction, made before the inauguration.
My latest: /n
My latest: /n
Revisiting My Post-Election Forecast
Not too shabby, if I say so myself.
www.readthedetox.com
January 26, 2026 at 5:55 PM
Thread. My take too. NB: “Things likely won’t to come to a head until early 2029, when Trump attempts to defy an election loss... When he does, it will pit a historically weak and inept dictator against one of the most powerful civil societies the world has ever seen.” Plus v elaborate federalism.
That’s a dumb thing to say for many reasons, eg giving a Trump leverage and encouraging Putin. It’s also not true IMO. RU is struggling w UKR. Add Poland, Finland, and the Baltic Republics alone and IMO RU would be outmatched. Then consider how war wld mobilize the rest of a MUCH richer EUR.
NATO chief Mark Rutte said that if anyone believes Europe or the EU can defend itself without the United States, they are "dreaming".
January 26, 2026 at 5:50 PM
That’s a dumb thing to say for many reasons, eg giving a Trump leverage and encouraging Putin. It’s also not true IMO. RU is struggling w UKR. Add Poland, Finland, and the Baltic Republics alone and IMO RU would be outmatched. Then consider how war wld mobilize the rest of a MUCH richer EUR.
This is good, IMO (“neo-royalism”). NB: “Foreign policy has become a tool to channel money and status to Trump and his closest associates. National interests are eclipsed... Rather than compete with rivals, Trump is willing to collude with them in order to advance his court’s parochial interests.”
January 26, 2026 at 2:06 PM
This is good, IMO (“neo-royalism”). NB: “Foreign policy has become a tool to channel money and status to Trump and his closest associates. National interests are eclipsed... Rather than compete with rivals, Trump is willing to collude with them in order to advance his court’s parochial interests.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Appears Russian deputy FM Ryabkov doesn't believe the New START treaty can be renewed, but pledges Russia will observe treaty limits on launchers and warheads, at least for the coming year.
January 25, 2026 at 11:51 PM
Appears Russian deputy FM Ryabkov doesn't believe the New START treaty can be renewed, but pledges Russia will observe treaty limits on launchers and warheads, at least for the coming year.
Thread. NB: “… the NDS explicitly repudiates the concept of alliance commitments in general, much less those backed by a U.S. nuclear guarantee. They are not hiding the ball here.”
With the aid of chocolate I have brought myself to read the just-released National Defense Strategy. A few quick reactions: 1/7
media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...
media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...
media.defense.gov
January 25, 2026 at 8:19 PM
Thread. NB: “… the NDS explicitly repudiates the concept of alliance commitments in general, much less those backed by a U.S. nuclear guarantee. They are not hiding the ball here.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Reposted by Edward Walker
Russia is using Belarus to threaten Europe with Oreshnik missiles, Zelenskyy says. Shahed drone operators strike Ukraine from Belarusian soil, while local industry and trade help supply components for Putin's war.
January 25, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Russia is using Belarus to threaten Europe with Oreshnik missiles, Zelenskyy says. Shahed drone operators strike Ukraine from Belarusian soil, while local industry and trade help supply components for Putin's war.
Reposted by Edward Walker
After a Border Patrol agent killed Alex Pretti today, attorney general Pam Bondi demanded that Minnesota end “sanctuary policies,” work with ICE, and — wait for it — give the DOJ access to its unredacted voter rolls.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
AG Bondi demands access to Minnesota voter rolls after fatal Border Patrol shooting
Her demand came as Minneapolis was reeling from a second fatal shooting by a federal agent this month.
www.democracydocket.com
January 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM
After a Border Patrol agent killed Alex Pretti today, attorney general Pam Bondi demanded that Minnesota end “sanctuary policies,” work with ICE, and — wait for it — give the DOJ access to its unredacted voter rolls.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
Make note: Attacks on elections are central to Trump's assault on democracy.
Reposted by Edward Walker
🚨 SCHUMER just now: “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
January 24, 2026 at 11:57 PM
🚨 SCHUMER just now: “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Entirely consistent w the video. My thanks to this brave woman.
You have to read this. Firsthand affidavit from one of the women who was there and recording the video. She talks about how Alex Pretti was directing traffic when she arrived. She watched him be killed in front of her. She's afraid to go home, worried she'll be arrested.
January 25, 2026 at 2:09 AM
Entirely consistent w the video. My thanks to this brave woman.
The next rung up the ladder of escalation: if/when armed agents of the state (whether federal, state, or local) fire on each other. Again, IMO v hard to see where that wld go, but for sure there’s a non-negligible risk of this turning into smthg reasonably classified as “internal war.”
The Star Tribune reports that federal agents "attempted to order local police from the scene" where a man was shot and killed by feds this morning, but Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara refused and "instructed his officers to preserve the scene."
Live: Man shot and killed by federal agents in south Minneapolis this morning, police chief says
A video appears to shows federal agents wrestling a man to the ground then shooting him.
www.startribune.com
January 24, 2026 at 11:57 PM
The next rung up the ladder of escalation: if/when armed agents of the state (whether federal, state, or local) fire on each other. Again, IMO v hard to see where that wld go, but for sure there’s a non-negligible risk of this turning into smthg reasonably classified as “internal war.”
The video from the woman in the pink jacket. Very hard to see how any reasonable person cld argue this wasn’t murder/execution. But ofc we’re not dealing w reasonable people. www.nytimes.com/video/embedd...
Video:
www.nytimes.com
January 24, 2026 at 11:08 PM
The video from the woman in the pink jacket. Very hard to see how any reasonable person cld argue this wasn’t murder/execution. But ofc we’re not dealing w reasonable people. www.nytimes.com/video/embedd...
Reposted by Edward Walker
