Half-Brick McCurdy
@halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social
A Scot in awe of Ukraine's courage and aghast at the West's turn to the Far-Right.
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
Here’s why I think this is largely misguided: that such speedy backsliding has been achieved without *the need* for “policy changes” is not an illustration of the resilience of institutions: it shows how compatible with autocracy those institutions were to begin with. www.ft.com/content/b474...
How steep is Trump’s democratic backsliding?
The erosion of established norms has been dramatic but institutions are holding up
www.ft.com
January 31, 2026 at 3:39 PM
Here’s why I think this is largely misguided: that such speedy backsliding has been achieved without *the need* for “policy changes” is not an illustration of the resilience of institutions: it shows how compatible with autocracy those institutions were to begin with. www.ft.com/content/b474...
1/3 Russian mortgages: Standout feature in new lending was the YE rush to get a subsidised mortgage before this year’s proposed introduction of differentiated subsidies. Meanwhile, the credit quality of the overall mortgage book continued to deteriorate, with overdue debt finally reaching 1.0% of
January 31, 2026 at 11:57 AM
1/3 Russian mortgages: Standout feature in new lending was the YE rush to get a subsidised mortgage before this year’s proposed introduction of differentiated subsidies. Meanwhile, the credit quality of the overall mortgage book continued to deteriorate, with overdue debt finally reaching 1.0% of
"The Shadow Fleet Sanctions Act must next be approved by the full Senate, followed by the House of Representatives. It would then require the president's signature before entering into law." *
⚡️US Senate committee backs sanctions bill cracking down on Russia's shadow fleet.
The bipartisan Shadow Fleet Sanctions Act expands Washington's authority to penalize shadow fleet vessels and slaps new penalties on Russian LNG and other energy sector projects.
The bipartisan Shadow Fleet Sanctions Act expands Washington's authority to penalize shadow fleet vessels and slaps new penalties on Russian LNG and other energy sector projects.
US Senate committee backs sanctions bill cracking down on Russia's shadow fleet
The Shadow Fleet Sanctions Act, introduced by Senators Jim Risch and Jeanne Shaheen in September 2025, expands Washington's authority to penalize shadow fleet vessels and slaps new penalties on Russia...
kyivindependent.com
January 30, 2026 at 10:53 PM
"The Shadow Fleet Sanctions Act must next be approved by the full Senate, followed by the House of Representatives. It would then require the president's signature before entering into law." *
The income tax brackets Russia introduced last January remain unchanged. With nominal pay growth averaging c.13% in 2025, that's quite a chunk of fiscal drag (a caveat being only 3% of the workforce were affected by the income tax changes when they were first introduced).
January 30, 2026 at 2:59 PM
The income tax brackets Russia introduced last January remain unchanged. With nominal pay growth averaging c.13% in 2025, that's quite a chunk of fiscal drag (a caveat being only 3% of the workforce were affected by the income tax changes when they were first introduced).
1/4 Saw a normally v.astute commentator repeat the claim that Russia receiving Iranian/N.Korean aid is a sign of weakness. As a reminder, this notion originated with the Biden administration as an excuse to not send more military aid to Ukraine, and is as flawed now as it was then. Receiving aid
January 30, 2026 at 10:54 AM
1/4 Saw a normally v.astute commentator repeat the claim that Russia receiving Iranian/N.Korean aid is a sign of weakness. As a reminder, this notion originated with the Biden administration as an excuse to not send more military aid to Ukraine, and is as flawed now as it was then. Receiving aid
1/2 Some good stuff but conflates the actions being taken against Iran (primarily the US and intensifying), Russia (primarily the UK/EU and intensifying-ish) and Venezuela (the US and temporary), to imply a unified Western response when there clearly isn't. Indeed, it doesn't say it but the article
The West and Ukraine are capsizing Russia’s shadow fleet
And sinking its oil revenues in the process
www.economist.com
January 29, 2026 at 2:16 PM
1/2 Some good stuff but conflates the actions being taken against Iran (primarily the US and intensifying), Russia (primarily the UK/EU and intensifying-ish) and Venezuela (the US and temporary), to imply a unified Western response when there clearly isn't. Indeed, it doesn't say it but the article
All that time spent reading Discipline and Punish is finally worthwhile.
The actual words of the current British Home Secretary:
“My ultimate vision for that part of the criminal justice system was to achieve, by means of AI and technology, what Jeremy Bentham tried to do with his Panopticon. That is that the eyes of the State can be on you at all times."
“My ultimate vision for that part of the criminal justice system was to achieve, by means of AI and technology, what Jeremy Bentham tried to do with his Panopticon. That is that the eyes of the State can be on you at all times."
Crime and Policing Bill - Hansard - UK Parliament
Hansard record of the item : 'Crime and Policing Bill' on Tuesday 20 January 2026.
hansard.parliament.uk
January 29, 2026 at 12:41 PM
All that time spent reading Discipline and Punish is finally worthwhile.
1/2 Russian Central Bank repo auction results capture the immediate shock of the 2022 invasion and the Bank's decision to flood the banking system with liquidity. The trend since late 2024 also stands out: "From November 25, 2024 to March 3, 2025, the Bank of Russia will hold repo auctions every
January 27, 2026 at 8:39 PM
1/2 Russian Central Bank repo auction results capture the immediate shock of the 2022 invasion and the Bank's decision to flood the banking system with liquidity. The trend since late 2024 also stands out: "From November 25, 2024 to March 3, 2025, the Bank of Russia will hold repo auctions every
The Baltic isn't being closed to Russian shadow fleet vessels (unfortunately), rather 14 nations have clarified the regulatory requirements ships have to meet and when they can be declared stateless, increasing the capacity of countries to take action against them (text from gcaptaion.com)
January 27, 2026 at 4:29 PM
The Baltic isn't being closed to Russian shadow fleet vessels (unfortunately), rather 14 nations have clarified the regulatory requirements ships have to meet and when they can be declared stateless, increasing the capacity of countries to take action against them (text from gcaptaion.com)
A story you hope is true
January 27, 2026 at 8:48 AM
A story you hope is true
Very (VERY) positive assessment of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Two caveats, one, given these only came into effect 21/1/25, I'd argue we're still in the impact phase which has previously been followed by adaptation both amongst sellers (the primary focus here) and buyers. Two, Trump.
Striking the Gray Zone: Why Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil Could Prove Decisive ridl.io/striking-the... On the Cumulative Impact of Sanctions and the Shrinking Space for Russia’s Oil Rent.
Striking the Gray Zone: Why Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil Could Prove Decisive – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania On the Cumulative Impact of Sanctions and the Shrinking Space for Russia
ridl.io
January 26, 2026 at 1:04 PM
Very (VERY) positive assessment of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Two caveats, one, given these only came into effect 21/1/25, I'd argue we're still in the impact phase which has previously been followed by adaptation both amongst sellers (the primary focus here) and buyers. Two, Trump.
1/6 A rolling loan gathers no loss: In the aftermath of the credit crunch in Britain there was a lot of talk about zombie loans to firms that were technically insolvent, but kept afloat by banks continuing to lend them money. These were bad things because, citing the example of Japan’s lost decade,
January 26, 2026 at 11:12 AM
1/6 A rolling loan gathers no loss: In the aftermath of the credit crunch in Britain there was a lot of talk about zombie loans to firms that were technically insolvent, but kept afloat by banks continuing to lend them money. These were bad things because, citing the example of Japan’s lost decade,
1/2 Useful updates on Russia's railways that highlight ongoing cashflow issues already severe enough to prompt a request for emergency state aid, a proposed debt for equity swap (rejected by the central bank*) and a 2026 pay freeze for it's >700,000 employees (so a real terms pay cut).
Russian Railways Spiral Into $45 Billion Debt Amid Freight Collapse
Freight volumes plunge 9.4% as Russian Railways’ debt nears $45B. Sanctions, war, and industrial decline push the economy further into crisis.
united24media.com
January 25, 2026 at 1:12 PM
1/2 Useful updates on Russia's railways that highlight ongoing cashflow issues already severe enough to prompt a request for emergency state aid, a proposed debt for equity swap (rejected by the central bank*) and a 2026 pay freeze for it's >700,000 employees (so a real terms pay cut).
Frickn' A, all the humour and the humanity from the most prescient historical guide to contemporary America out there today.
Full episodes of Behind the Bastards will be streaming on Netflix starting January 26! Hit “Remind Me” on Netflix so you don’t miss the premiere 📺👀
@iwriteok.bsky.social @whysophiewhy.bsky.social
@iwriteok.bsky.social @whysophiewhy.bsky.social
January 24, 2026 at 5:54 PM
Frickn' A, all the humour and the humanity from the most prescient historical guide to contemporary America out there today.
I reckon The Beta Band's 3 EPs is better than anything else they made because it was the most influenced by Gordon Anderson/Lone Pigeon. As evidence here's a rough mix* of The Aliens (half the Beta Band plus Gordon Anderson)
The Aliens - Only Waiting (BBC Radio Scotland 2006)
YouTube video by njai1974
www.youtube.com
January 24, 2026 at 4:55 PM
I reckon The Beta Band's 3 EPs is better than anything else they made because it was the most influenced by Gordon Anderson/Lone Pigeon. As evidence here's a rough mix* of The Aliens (half the Beta Band plus Gordon Anderson)
"There are few more impressive sights in the world than a Scotsman on the make"
January 24, 2026 at 12:02 PM
"There are few more impressive sights in the world than a Scotsman on the make"
From the same folk claiming to be protecting the UK and Europe from civilizational erasure
A study on the artificial intelligence chatbot Grok embedded on X estimates it created 3 million sexualized images in 11 days in January, including 23,000 of children.
Grok could have produced 3 million sexual deepfakes in 11 days, says estimate
European regulators have yet to decide how to handle the explosion of nonconsensual deepfakes on the platform.
www.politico.eu
January 23, 2026 at 12:38 PM
From the same folk claiming to be protecting the UK and Europe from civilizational erasure
So America went to Davos mob handed to declare "Capitalism has a new sheriff in town" ([c] Howard Lutnick). Instead, they're leaving with everyone thinking they're a bunch of ghastly fuckers and cheering on Mark Carney instead. Nice.
The true leader of the free world.
"Canada and the United States have built a remarkable partnership in the economy, in security, and in rich cultural exchange. But Canada doesn't live because of the United States—Canada thrives because we are Canadian," says PM Mark Carney, speaking in Quebec City ahead of cabinet meeting.
#cdnpoli
#cdnpoli
January 22, 2026 at 8:31 PM
So America went to Davos mob handed to declare "Capitalism has a new sheriff in town" ([c] Howard Lutnick). Instead, they're leaving with everyone thinking they're a bunch of ghastly fuckers and cheering on Mark Carney instead. Nice.
My pet theory is Trump took the secret documents because he wanted to play pretendy Mr President at Mar a Lago and needed authentic props*. His - and it's very much his - peace board would be an elaboration of that. It also suggests he's making an international role for himself when out of office.
January 22, 2026 at 4:54 PM
My pet theory is Trump took the secret documents because he wanted to play pretendy Mr President at Mar a Lago and needed authentic props*. His - and it's very much his - peace board would be an elaboration of that. It also suggests he's making an international role for himself when out of office.
An important perspective, plus the narcissism of the replies is mind boggling.
January 21, 2026 at 5:28 AM
An important perspective, plus the narcissism of the replies is mind boggling.
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
Amazing moment on French TV. A French judge explains how Trump sent people from the US Embassy basically trying to intimidate her during Le Pen's trial for embezzlement - something they've done to other judges around the world.
January 20, 2026 at 3:01 PM
Amazing moment on French TV. A French judge explains how Trump sent people from the US Embassy basically trying to intimidate her during Le Pen's trial for embezzlement - something they've done to other judges around the world.
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
museums are cool because the people who work there are like look at this neat thing and you're like wow that is neat and you just do it over and over again until it is time to go
January 20, 2026 at 3:03 AM
museums are cool because the people who work there are like look at this neat thing and you're like wow that is neat and you just do it over and over again until it is time to go
The 2026 Russian budget* assumes a 3% increase in oil and gas earnings, not a 46% fall. The budget also assumes the average export price of Russian oil would climb $1 to $59 whereas it's been in the mid $30s and the new, dynamic EU price cap was cut to $44.10 4 days ago. Double bubble.
⚡️ Russia's oil, gas revenues to drop by 46% in January year-on-year, Reuters reports.
The development is driven by a stronger ruble and low oil prices, according to the news agency.
The development is driven by a stronger ruble and low oil prices, according to the news agency.
Russia's oil, gas revenues to drop by 46% in January year-on-year, Reuters reports
The development is driven by a stronger ruble and low oil prices, according to the news agency's calculations.
kyivindependent.com
January 19, 2026 at 7:18 PM
The 2026 Russian budget* assumes a 3% increase in oil and gas earnings, not a 46% fall. The budget also assumes the average export price of Russian oil would climb $1 to $59 whereas it's been in the mid $30s and the new, dynamic EU price cap was cut to $44.10 4 days ago. Double bubble.
1/4 Russian mortgage market: Given the direction of Russian interest rates since June 2025, the cost of subsidising mortgages was already falling. Introducing differentiated rates will accelerate this process. With c.60% of current borrowers currently set to qualify for 12% instead of 6%
January 19, 2026 at 12:33 PM
1/4 Russian mortgage market: Given the direction of Russian interest rates since June 2025, the cost of subsidising mortgages was already falling. Introducing differentiated rates will accelerate this process. With c.60% of current borrowers currently set to qualify for 12% instead of 6%
1/2 Cheers to @delfoo.bsky.social on the latest Tochnyi weekly broadcast. So Russia is in the process of introducing differentiated rates for subsidised mortgages ranging from 4% for larger families (three+ kids) up to 12% for one child families (c.60% of the total). Given the forecast direction of
1/5 The proposal to introduce differentiated rates for subsidised Russian mortgages is potentially a BFD. Whereas ending the preferential program in 2024 only slowed cost growth, this proposal would significantly cut the cost of subsidising new mortgages, by at least a 1/3 using December data*.
1/7 Rumours of the subsidised Russian mortgage’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. After becoming a significant cost (@markgaleotti.bsky.social recently noted Russia spends more on subsidised mortgages than police salaries), their availability was significantly reduced in July 2024.
January 18, 2026 at 8:03 PM
1/2 Cheers to @delfoo.bsky.social on the latest Tochnyi weekly broadcast. So Russia is in the process of introducing differentiated rates for subsidised mortgages ranging from 4% for larger families (three+ kids) up to 12% for one child families (c.60% of the total). Given the forecast direction of