Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

2 3

The Janeway Institute, Cambridge @janewayinstitute.bsky.social · May 28

📣New JI WP📣published by @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @econcam.bsky.social et al. : 'The Interest Rate Effects of Gov't Debt Maturity: Solving the Bond Conundrum'.
Read the paper and find out more: www.janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk/publication/...

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · May 6

It is possible that the behaviour of US term premia since "Liberation Day" may result from the expectation of a lengthening in debt maturity in response to the tariff induced negative AS supply shock.

n/n

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · May 6

The dominance of the average maturity of Federal debt makes inflows into US Treasuries from the
foreign official sector superfluous in explaining long-term rates. Inflows have no statistically significant impact on premia. 4/n

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · May 6

Second, shortening of the maturity of public debt in the early 2000s accounted for the reduction in the forward long rate and term premium. We thus explain the Greenspan conundrum – the failure of long-term interest rates to
rise in the face of a tightening at the Fed. 3/n

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · May 6

We find that a one-month increase in the average
maturity of debt outstanding held outside the Fed Reserve is associated with a rise of 10-13 basis points in the 10-year
term premium. Our estimates are consistent with significant portfolio balance
effects. 2/n

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · May 6

Very pleased to release our paper with colleagues at the BIS in Basle. Sadly Philip Turner died last year and this paper honours him. Short thread follows. 1/n

www.econ.cam.ac.uk/publications...

1 3

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Apr 13

The excitement over ONS February's estimate of monthly GDP is misplaced. The estimate is based on output data only. If we look at the components of the production sector since 2022, I would not get out any bunting. (Obs services and construction matter are also counted.)

1 3

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Apr 11

The answer, given public and private debt levels is not yet more borrowing. But mechanisms to build savings, control fiscal policy and channel funds into country-wide infrastucture and capacity-building, especially in areas hit by globalisation. In other words, old-fashioned good governance. n/n

High US Tariffs Could Knock UK GDP Growth Close to Zero Next Year - NIESR

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Apr 11

So why are US long term rates rising in light of "Liberation Day"? Put financial plumbing to one side. Note that under a recession, debtor country investment demand will shift out, raise the current account deficit at "c" and require higher global rates to attract capital (along S'). 3/n

1 1 1

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Apr 11

At interest rates below "a" (market clearing interest rate for debtors e.g. the US) the US runs a deficit funded by savers in the rest of the world. With capital mobility and with "b" (market clearing interest rate for creditors e.g. China) below "a", there will be persistent deficits. 2/n

1 1 1

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Apr 11

The US current account deficit results from an excess of investment over savings - trade frictions play a relatively minor role. This is because of impatient consumers, fiscal deficits and the availability of international funds. The Metzler diagram from my book, The Money Minders, Chapter 5. 1/n

1 2 2

Anton Muscatelli @antonmuscatelli.bsky.social · Apr 4

What should rational players in world trade (the EU, China) do next? Instead of being tempted into more tit-for-tat tariff hikes with the US, they should try, through the WTO, to lower tariffs between the other trading blocks. The world trading system could turn away from the USA.

2 8

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · Apr 2

President #Trump has tonight confirmed 10% tariffs on the UK & 20% on the EU. Over the following days we'll continue analyse what these reciprocal tariffs will mean for the UK & global economies. Some of our previous work is here: niesr.ac.uk/news/high-us...

US President Donald Trump is set to announce a comprehensive tariff plan later today. While the scope and extent of these tariffs are yet to be known, previous NIESR research on the impact of tariffs ...

1 1 1

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Apr 1

As we enter a potential #tariff war, I am reminded of my #StudiumGenerale @Unimarburg.bsky.social in 2010. Trade can collapse quickly and with it, income and productivity. Time to worry....

Fixing the UK Fiscal Framework: A Path to Sustainable Growth - NIESR

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Apr 1

I am very much looking forward to this on Friday....

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · Apr 1

THIS FRIDAY 📢⚡ "Fixing the UK Fiscal Framework: A Path to Sustainable Growth"

🎦 Webinar #event
⏰ April 4, 11:00

We'll hear from IFG's @gemmatetlow.bsky.social, Blonde Money's Helen Thomas, and our @econstevem.bsky.social & @adrianpabst.bsky.social 💬

Sign up to join ⬇
niesr.ac.uk/event/fixing...

The recent Spring Statement has once again raised questions about the effectiveness of the UK fiscal framework. This event explores an alternative approach.

Fixing the UK Fiscal Framework: A Path to Sustainable Growth - NIESR

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · Apr 1

THIS FRIDAY 📢⚡ "Fixing the UK Fiscal Framework: A Path to Sustainable Growth"

🎦 Webinar #event
⏰ April 4, 11:00

We'll hear from IFG's @gemmatetlow.bsky.social, Blonde Money's Helen Thomas, and our @econstevem.bsky.social & @adrianpabst.bsky.social 💬

Sign up to join ⬇
niesr.ac.uk/event/fixing...

The recent Spring Statement has once again raised questions about the effectiveness of the UK fiscal framework. This event explores an alternative approach.

Response to the 2025 Spring Statement - NIESR

2 3

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · Mar 28

"Understanding the Effects of #Brexit on UK Productivity" ⚙ 🔍

In this NIER article, our @econstevem.bsky.social & @durhameconomics.bsky.social's Anamaria Nicolae & Michael Nower analyse the impact of Brexit on trade & #productivity 📊⬇ @durham-university.bsky.social
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

4 4

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Mar 26

The #SpringStatement is in reality tinkering with our spending plans.

Are we now re-entering the realms of #finetuning in order to meet a variable target 4-5 years hence? This is a worry.

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

The 2025 Spring Statement was delivered against a background of continuing low growth and above target inflation. Did it deliver what was needed for the economy?

2

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Mar 26

Rather than a battle of accounting practices, we need to start from a government view on what it wants to achieve this Parliament on growth and productivity. Then to see what can be funded subject to a clear, transparent account of the risks to fiscal sustainability.

PML @mortimerleepaul.bsky.social · Mar 26

I am sure @jagjitchadha.bsky.social and @econstevem.bsky.social will have views on this

Labour's economic strategy is outdated. I can fix that | Jagjit Chadha

PML @mortimerleepaul.bsky.social · Mar 26

I am sure @jagjitchadha.bsky.social and @econstevem.bsky.social will have views on this

1 2

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · Mar 25

The Treasury needs to stop obsessing about fiscal rules: the Spring Statement should set out a growth strategy.

@jagjitchadha.bsky.social in @theguardian.com

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The last thing we need from Wednesday’s spring statement are incremental changes to tax and spending. Let’s have a clear plan, says Jagjit Chadha of Cambridge University

Labour's economic strategy is outdated. I can fix that | Jagjit Chadha

8 28 85

Romesh Vaitilingam @econromesh.bsky.social · Mar 25

Britain has a severe problem with its sluggish rate of growth; while Labour wishes to tackle it, it is going about it the wrong way, @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @theguardian.com

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The last thing we need from Wednesday’s spring statement are incremental changes to tax and spending. Let’s have a clear plan, says Jagjit Chadha of Cambridge University

Labour's economic strategy is outdated. I can fix that | Jagjit Chadha

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Mar 25

My Op-Ed in today's @theguardian.com. Let's stop tinkering and adopt a credible economic strategy.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The last thing we need from Wednesday’s spring statement are incremental changes to tax and spending. Let’s have a clear plan, says Jagjit Chadha of Cambridge University

Labour's economic strategy is outdated. I can fix that | Jagjit Chadha

7 15

econstevem.bsky.social @econstevem.bsky.social · Mar 24

Well worth reading @jagjitchadha.bsky.social thoughts on what should and should not be in Wednesday’s Spring Statement. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... @niesrorg.bsky.social @adrianpabst.bsky.social

The last thing we need from Wednesday’s spring statement are incremental changes to tax and spending. Let’s have a clear plan, says Jagjit Chadha of Cambridge University

‘Does it score?’ How the OBR became the key arbiter of the Treasury’s sums

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Mar 21

We can veer away from a rules -based target. We need though to explain why and when we will be back on track.

@rjpartington.bsky.social

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Chancellor has very little headroom within her fiscal rules but is keen to keep Office for Budget Responsibility on side

The State of the Nation's Economy - NIESR

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · Mar 19

In one week, the Chancellor will deliver her Spring Statement to parliament ⏰

At NIESR, we have long advocated the need to introduce more accountability and transparency into fiscal policy 💬👇 @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @econstevem.bsky.social @adrianpabst.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/publications...

We need to introduce more accountability and transparency into fiscal policy based around the genuine economic and social performance of the United Kingdom.

2 2

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Mar 18

Cheeky....

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Feb 2

I do not know for sure. But they will not remember in the morning!!

PFI: Getting the Bill on the Fiscal Credit Card - NIESR

Jagjit S Chadha @jagjitchadha.bsky.social · Jan 23

Not the way to fund public investment.

🎩 @maxmosley.bsky.social @niesrorg.bsky.social

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · Jan 23

💥 JUST PUBLISHED 💥

This new report by our @maxmosley.bsky.social reveals the true cost of PFI 📈🚨

It finds that PFI repayments are on average 3.3 times larger than the value of the asset they built 🏗🏥 and that PFI #schools are more likely to be in #debt ⬇🔓
niesr.ac.uk/publications...

For over 20 years, successive UK governments used the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) - a formof a Public Private Partnership (PPP) – to use the private sector to finance and deliver publicinfrastruc...