Jan Lenaerts
Jan Lenaerts
@janlenaerts.bsky.social
Climate modeller and expert. Former prof, ex-McKinsey, currently leading physical risk modeling at ING
Reposted by Jan Lenaerts
Zillow’s climate score rollback is a wake-up call: build open, future‑conditions federal flood maps -- gold‑standard, trustworthy data for building codes, mortgages, and our future. Column today: open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...
Zillow’s climate risk reversal looks like a setback. It’s really a wake‑up call.
When private models sow confusion, it’s a flashing warning sign that Washington needs to fix federal flood maps,
open.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Reposted by Jan Lenaerts
A reminder, in light of that NYT story today, about skill and spread across climate analytics providers:

Getting good climate info in the hands of individuals would be highly valuable. Just not convinced we're actually there yet.
Absolutely fantastic study comparing anonymized outputs of climate analytics models.

Everyone loves to bag on flood (rightly so), but can we talk about how the spread here is "30mph breeze to Cat 5 hurricane" www.fca.org.uk/publication/... HT @ruarirhodes.bsky.social
November 30, 2025 at 8:19 PM
The discussion on accuracy here is somewhat moot. I find it most intriguing that this information does seem to go into and does impact individual customer decision making and even house sale price (paper here www.nber.org/papers/w33119).
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Reposted by Jan Lenaerts
New text @cop30brazil.bsky.social provides a glimpse of where #COP30 might land.

Some reflections on references to science and evidence. /1

unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int
November 22, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Reposted by Jan Lenaerts
Was there any coverage of the recent record warmth in both the Arctic and Antarctic? Multiple global datasets now confirm these records, and I think it's really quite striking.

Here's some very quick plots showing NOAAGlobalTempv6 data from October too. And see my earlier posts.
November 22, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Reposted by Jan Lenaerts
Absolutely fantastic study comparing anonymized outputs of climate analytics models.

Everyone loves to bag on flood (rightly so), but can we talk about how the spread here is "30mph breeze to Cat 5 hurricane" www.fca.org.uk/publication/... HT @ruarirhodes.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Reposted by Jan Lenaerts
Our 400+ page comment on the DOE climate working group report is now out.

Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.
DOEresponseSite
On July 29, 2025, the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report from its Climate Working Group (CWG). This report features prominently in the EPA's reconsideration of its 2009 Endangerment Finding. In response, over 85 scientists have come together to write a comprehensive review, which is
sites.google.com
September 2, 2025 at 1:24 PM
This resonates a lot with me. The tipping points topic is one of the most popular ones for private sector, but is largely irrelevant for their short- to medium-term (20 yrs is typically way too far out!) decision making process around climate resilience and adaptation www.nature.com/articles/s41...
‘Tipping points’ confuse and can distract from urgent climate action - Nature Climate Change
The tipping points framing is widely used in climate discussions but receives mixed feedback. This Perspective critiques it for oversimplifying the complexities of natural and social systems and faili...
www.nature.com
December 4, 2024 at 7:45 AM