Jonathan Marshall
@jmarshallnz.bsky.social
390 followers 480 following 500 posts
Statistician in Papaioea, Aotearoa. #rstats, #datascience.
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Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
dreddieclark.bsky.social
Any idea when our private elections overlords finish counting the on the day votes? I know there were lots, so not surprising (or outrageous) that the standard Sunday deadline wasn't met, but we're a fair way into Monday & I see nothing for WCC & a couple of races ARE in the balance.
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Great news. Bodes well for day 91!
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
robertmclachlan.bsky.social
Kaydee in, Butt out. Māori wards now 0.3% ahead in Horizons region
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Congratulations! Look forward to your pieces mocking other bits of the country (i.e. providing excellent journalism) as well. :)
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Hmm, I wondered why the wellington prelim results hadn't been published (along with a heap of other areas electionz controls...) Was supposed to be yesterday.
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
thoughtfulnz.bsky.social
A general population shift (both within age cohorts and from older to younger) is very consistent to the increasing opposition to getting rid of the Treaty in the New Zealand Election Study

bsky.app/profile/thou...
thoughtfulnz.bsky.social
The New Zealand Election Study data for the 2023 general election is now out, and available publicly at dataverse.

I have remade my Treaty graph, replacing 2020 with 2023. The long term trend towards Toitū Te Tiriti is unchanged.
The same colours is the same age group with 21 years of change. Different colours are people of different ages at the same point in time.
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
On prelim results Palmy now has 2 Green and 1 Labour. Yesterday it was 1 Green, 2 Labour. Either way a slight shift right with Fitzgerald elected. Could change again on specials as it’s pretty close.
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Nat candidate in 2011. Maybe changed tune, though she was the only no vote on Māori wards early in 24.
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Yep: Two of them ran to be Nat MPs!
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Suspect this is a fairly constant shift across the country. Just some areas started at an even lower baseline.
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Wood, Arnott and Fitzgerald for starters :(
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
paulbarlownz.bsky.social
One final bit of good news - 234600 people across the motu voted to remove Māori wards, 245800 to keep them - 51.1% of all votes were to keep them, 48.9% not to. The majority of the country that voted were in favour so suck it coalition!
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
rebeccamatthews.bsky.social
Looks like I am back team. Thank you all for your support 💚
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Cooker Fitzgerald made it onto Palmy Council. One less Green as well :( Māori ward kept though.
jmarshallnz.bsky.social
Hopefully not too much longer before they up it to 10kw
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
jdeheij.bsky.social
Margin is a 100 votes!!! And they are still counting, so not final yet. 🫣
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
danxduran.bsky.social
I'm doing live updates on the local election results this afternoon on RNZ, if you want to be the first to know how much of a crushing victory 'did not vote' had across the country
Reposted by Jonathan Marshall
thejuicemedia.com
The Government of New Zealand has made a new tourism ad and it's surprsingly honest and informative!
Honest Government Ad | Visit New Zealand!
YouTube video by thejuicemedia
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