Julius Garbe
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juliusgarbe.github.io
Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io
Antarctica Director @iccinet.bsky.social | PhD candidate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. #IceSheets, #SeaLevelRise, Earth System #Resilience & #TippingPoints. Focus on #AntarcticIceSheet stability.

🌐 https://juliusgarbe.github.io
Pinned
🚨📢 New Publication Alert

Our new study shows that the #WestAntarctic #IceSheet repeatedly crossed #TippingPoint thresholds in the past, with important implications for its future stability.

Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Study: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

🌊🧊⚒️🧪🥼
Scientists say next few years vital to securing the future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
03.06.2025 – Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be triggered with very little ocean warming above present-day, leading to a devastating four metres of global sea level rise to play out ove...
www.pik-potsdam.de
Reposted by Julius Garbe
When a government speaks responsibly about climate risks. Iceland's climate minister Jóhannsson:
"We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility."
youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
youtu.be
November 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🚨 JUST PUBLISHED: CARBON BRIEF’S #COP30 SUMMARY 🚨

It's an EPIC 20,000 words of top-notch, plain-english reporting…

–Global mutirão
–Adaptation finance
–Fossil-fuel roadmap
–China
+Much more

Very proud of team CB for getting this out so fast

www.carbonbrief.org/...
November 23, 2025 at 4:12 PM
🎞️ After COP30 fire and floods: AMOC shutdown 🔥🌊

Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.

▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...

@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Tomorrow at #COP30 and online @rahmstorf.bsky.social will present latest AMOC science & potential impacts of shutdown

The event will be chaired by Minister Johannsson of Iceland and will include perspectives from representatives of Ireland, UK, Canada, and Finland

iccinet.org/cop30-cryosp...

🧪🌊
November 19, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Catch @billhare.bsky.social speaking at #icci #COP30 event– The Perils of Ignoring Science and 1.5°C at COP30: Tipping Points in the Cryosphere.

He presents our work on limiting overshoot and returning warming back well below 1.5°C by 2100.

📅 Nov 14 15:00-16:30 BRT
📍 Side Event Room 9
November 14, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Launch of @iccinet.bsky.social 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report yesterday evening is featured on @theguardian.com #COP30 feed today:

We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice!

www.theguardian.com/environment/...
November 14, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
“We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice” -striking message from @iccinet.bsky.social report

Ice melt leads to the most profound long-term impact of the #climatecrisis - sea level rise

#climatecrisis
Post by me
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Cop day 5 live: Indigenous activists blockade the summit centre as climate conference continues
As the climate conference goes into its fifth day, with huge amounts still unresolved, there were reports that activists had blockaded the entrance to the centre
www.theguardian.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Information for journalists at COP30:

TODAY 6:30pm, Thurs Nov. 13 | Media briefing on the State of the Cryosphere Report 2025 and its relevance for COP30 negotiations.

Join in person or online: www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_Gw...

🚨 Cryosphere Pavilion (left of main hallway, behind UNFCCC Pavilion)
November 13, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
10 years after the Paris Agreement, the international community has come together at #COP30 to once again negotiate global climate action. 10 years ago, we published a paper on why the right #climate target was agreed in Paris. Still true. Because the science does not change. #ScienceIsNotNegotiable
November 11, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
After years of political failure, the world can still rescue 1.5°C – if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition”, starting now.

New report from Climate Analytics and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social shows how it’s possible.

Read more: climateanalytics.org/publications...
Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to…
This study shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate ac...
climateanalytics.org
November 6, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🌊🧊🇦🇶
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves - Nature
The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape.
www.nature.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
📢 New paper out!

🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.

It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵

doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...
doi.org
October 28, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
1. We’re living through a very hot year (again). Right now, 2025 looks like it could come in as the 2nd or 3rd hottest year on record
October 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change
It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
www.nature.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.

@swinda.bsky.social

esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
October 23, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
I was interviewed for this great piece about sea level rise.
Solid reporting here on the scientific controversy, but I like that Evan ended with my bigger picture quote that a lot of the controversy doesn't really matter because by 2100, we will be talking about a radically different coastline.
How Soon Will the Seas Rise? | Quanta Magazine
The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen — and how fast — is anything but settled.
www.quantamagazine.org
October 20, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🌡️ The #C3S Climate Pulse app makes temperature data easy for everyone – compare decades, explore trends, zoom into regions and download or share your findings with a click. Tracking global surface air and sea temperatures has never been easier.
October 14, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
160 scientists, 23 countries, 1 report: The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, together with @exeter.ac.uk, highlights mounting risks across Earth’s systems, from melting glaciers & ice fields to slowing ocean currents, ice sheets & rainforests under pressure. Watch now👇
👉global-tipping-points.org
October 13, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Bleaching, Melting, Slowing: New Global Tipping Points report tracks growing risks of Earth system tipping points. It highlights mounting risks, from melting glaciers, ice fields to slowing ocean currents, ice sheets & rainforests under pressure.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
October 13, 2025 at 7:49 AM
📢 OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025

In this new report, we provide a check on the status of critical Earth system #TippingPoints and opportunities in #PositiveTippingPoints across sectors.

➡️ Full report: global-tipping-points.org

#GTPR2025 #COP30 @exeter.ac.uk @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
Global Tipping Points | understanding risks & their potential impact
Harmful tipping points in the natural world threaten humanity by disrupting life support systems and societal stability.
global-tipping-points.org
October 13, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🎬 And that’s a wrap on the #OvershootConference!

A huge thank you to our Scientific Steering Committee, Organizing Committee, and every single speaker and participant whose insights, questions, and collaboration made this event such a success.
October 2, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🧵3/5
New peer-reviewed work using 800,000-yr simulations finds hysteresis and tipping thresholds: small additional warming could let West Antarctica add meters to global sea levels. Tiny temp changes, huge consequences. 🌎
Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss - Communications Earth & Environment
The Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits hysteresis and irreversible ice loss, with West Antarctic collapse contributing over 4 m of sea-level rise even under minimal additional warming, according to 800,000-year transient and equilibrium simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model.
www.nature.com
October 2, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Simulations covering 800,000 years show that a slight deep-ocean warming can trigger West #Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, raising sea level by about 4 metres.

Today’s temperatures are already at this threshold. Future irreversible ice sheet loss may occur with little/no further climate warming.
Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss - Communications Earth & Environment
The Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits hysteresis and irreversible ice loss, with West Antarctic collapse contributing over 4 m of sea-level rise even under minimal additional warming, according to 800,000-...
www.nature.com
September 30, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🌍🌡️I'm excited to share my latest editorial for @commsearth.nature.com on how to avoid Earth System tipping points and trigger more positive change.

Thanks to @exeter.ac.uk for organising two vibrant events on the topic

Read more 👉 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Pathways for prevention of cascading tipping points - Communications Earth & Environment
Strong governance, accelerated action, and empowered communities are essential to avoid cascading Earth system tipping points and achieve lasting, transformative change.
www.nature.com
September 23, 2025 at 8:22 PM