Justin Mikulka
@justinmikulka.bsky.social
Research, analysis and opinion on the ongoing energy transition.
Writing about it at:
https://powering-the-planet.ghost.io
Writing about it at:
https://powering-the-planet.ghost.io
I'll be away this week.
November 24, 2025 at 11:11 AM
I'll be away this week.
Reposted by Justin Mikulka
America's obscene LNG build-out only makes financial sense if the price of gas is cripplingly, devastatingly high for households
If households pay reasonable amounts of gas, then it means billions in LNG export investments go down the drain
Who do you think Trump is going to choose to bail out?
If households pay reasonable amounts of gas, then it means billions in LNG export investments go down the drain
Who do you think Trump is going to choose to bail out?
November 21, 2025 at 7:08 PM
America's obscene LNG build-out only makes financial sense if the price of gas is cripplingly, devastatingly high for households
If households pay reasonable amounts of gas, then it means billions in LNG export investments go down the drain
Who do you think Trump is going to choose to bail out?
If households pay reasonable amounts of gas, then it means billions in LNG export investments go down the drain
Who do you think Trump is going to choose to bail out?
Reposted by Justin Mikulka
"chatbots are just like calculators therefore it's fine to allow them being crammed into every corner of education" is absurdly silly on a million levels, but the most simple imo is that people *actually use them as calculators* - delivering incorrect answers for many millions times the energy use
Chatbot energy scores are welcome - but don't forget the toxic context of AI overconsumption
Julien Delavande , an engineer at AI research firm Hugging Face , has developed a tool that shows in real time the power consumption of the chatbot generating your query, and presents that energy valu...
www.linkedin.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:47 PM
"chatbots are just like calculators therefore it's fine to allow them being crammed into every corner of education" is absurdly silly on a million levels, but the most simple imo is that people *actually use them as calculators* - delivering incorrect answers for many millions times the energy use
The bankers loaning the money for the LNG projects don't ask about getting paid back.
“Not once did I get asked a question by a banker: ‘Hey, if I lend you the money, will you get paid back?’” he said. “The only question I ever got asked was, ‘Do you have a permit? Or can you get a permit?’”
🤡
“Not once did I get asked a question by a banker: ‘Hey, if I lend you the money, will you get paid back?’” he said. “The only question I ever got asked was, ‘Do you have a permit? Or can you get a permit?’”
🤡
Former Energy Secretaries: Courts Stalling Natural Gas Infrastructure Critical for AI Buildout
Former Energy Secretaries address how court challenges are hindering the development of natural gas infrastructure critical for powering AI buildout in the United States. Learn how delays in permittin...
naturalgasintel.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:44 PM
The bankers loaning the money for the LNG projects don't ask about getting paid back.
“Not once did I get asked a question by a banker: ‘Hey, if I lend you the money, will you get paid back?’” he said. “The only question I ever got asked was, ‘Do you have a permit? Or can you get a permit?’”
🤡
“Not once did I get asked a question by a banker: ‘Hey, if I lend you the money, will you get paid back?’” he said. “The only question I ever got asked was, ‘Do you have a permit? Or can you get a permit?’”
🤡
Uh oh. Who is going to tell all of the ethanol farmers that they are no longer going to get their welfare checks to fund their Florida vacation homes?
BREAKING: The House of Representatives voted 285–98 in favor of a resolution condemning socialism.
Eighty-six Democrats joined Republicans in supporting the measure, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Eighty-six Democrats joined Republicans in supporting the measure, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
November 21, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Uh oh. Who is going to tell all of the ethanol farmers that they are no longer going to get their welfare checks to fund their Florida vacation homes?
"Investment returns at $55 to $60 per barrel are not what they were at the same price five years ago because the best wells have been drilled"
The lies of the US oil industry are being revealed by low oil prices. The bigger lie (endless cheap oil and gas reserves) will also soon be revealed.
The lies of the US oil industry are being revealed by low oil prices. The bigger lie (endless cheap oil and gas reserves) will also soon be revealed.
www.reuters.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:24 PM
"Investment returns at $55 to $60 per barrel are not what they were at the same price five years ago because the best wells have been drilled"
The lies of the US oil industry are being revealed by low oil prices. The bigger lie (endless cheap oil and gas reserves) will also soon be revealed.
The lies of the US oil industry are being revealed by low oil prices. The bigger lie (endless cheap oil and gas reserves) will also soon be revealed.
Commonly used phrases that are highly misleading? I'll start!
Access journalism.
Access journalism.
November 21, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Commonly used phrases that are highly misleading? I'll start!
Access journalism.
Access journalism.
"we will be going after the worst of the worst...."
You know, the highly ambitious young people interning for judges.
You know, the highly ambitious young people interning for judges.
America 2025.
November 21, 2025 at 2:41 PM
"we will be going after the worst of the worst...."
You know, the highly ambitious young people interning for judges.
You know, the highly ambitious young people interning for judges.
In hindsight, this will be one of those projects that marks the peak LNG bubble insanity.
Building a pipeline over the Rockies to take New Mexican methane to an LNG export facility....somewhere yet to be determined.
Embarrassing for all involved.
Building a pipeline over the Rockies to take New Mexican methane to an LNG export facility....somewhere yet to be determined.
Embarrassing for all involved.
The Japanese ambassador made a stop in New Mexico to help promote the idea of building a gas pipeline over the Rocky Mountains to deliver gas to a theoretical LNG export facility.
As Jack McDonald writes, "This bizarre situation raises some obvious questions."
Read his analysis.
As Jack McDonald writes, "This bizarre situation raises some obvious questions."
Read his analysis.
Boats in the Desert? New Mexico’s Natural Gas Export Ambitions - Oilfield Witness
Earlier this month the Japanese ambassador visited New Mexico. He was not in town to visit Carlsbad Caverns or to throw a pizza onto the roof of the Breaking Bad House. Unlike the usual tourists, he w...
oilfieldwitness.org
November 21, 2025 at 2:39 PM
In hindsight, this will be one of those projects that marks the peak LNG bubble insanity.
Building a pipeline over the Rockies to take New Mexican methane to an LNG export facility....somewhere yet to be determined.
Embarrassing for all involved.
Building a pipeline over the Rockies to take New Mexican methane to an LNG export facility....somewhere yet to be determined.
Embarrassing for all involved.
I see a leading voice in the climate tech world attacking teachers for not properly embracing AI in the classroom.
You know who has been trying to tell teachers he knew how to do their jobs better than them? For years? Bill Gates.
You know who has no teaching experience? Bill Gates
You know who has been trying to tell teachers he knew how to do their jobs better than them? For years? Bill Gates.
You know who has no teaching experience? Bill Gates
November 21, 2025 at 2:06 PM
I see a leading voice in the climate tech world attacking teachers for not properly embracing AI in the classroom.
You know who has been trying to tell teachers he knew how to do their jobs better than them? For years? Bill Gates.
You know who has no teaching experience? Bill Gates
You know who has been trying to tell teachers he knew how to do their jobs better than them? For years? Bill Gates.
You know who has no teaching experience? Bill Gates
Seems like everyone is now seeing/admitting that the US LNG export business is in deep trouble from a financial standpoint.
"Lower sales prices combined with higher transit costs will not just erode profitability, but may also strain exporter creditworthiness...."
"Lower sales prices combined with higher transit costs will not just erode profitability, but may also strain exporter creditworthiness...."
www.reuters.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Seems like everyone is now seeing/admitting that the US LNG export business is in deep trouble from a financial standpoint.
"Lower sales prices combined with higher transit costs will not just erode profitability, but may also strain exporter creditworthiness...."
"Lower sales prices combined with higher transit costs will not just erode profitability, but may also strain exporter creditworthiness...."
Former LNG executive admits reality.
“The people who should be worried are the American producers who may not have a market for their gas if they don't have an international buyer. That’s how I see the LNG market evolving.”
(paywalled)
“The people who should be worried are the American producers who may not have a market for their gas if they don't have an international buyer. That’s how I see the LNG market evolving.”
(paywalled)
Souki Sees Need for U.S. LNG Developers to Shift Strategy as New Era Dawns
Discover the evolving landscape of the U.S. LNG market through the lens of industry expert Charif Souki, as he highlights the shift in strategy needed for American developers in this new era of global...
naturalgasintel.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Former LNG executive admits reality.
“The people who should be worried are the American producers who may not have a market for their gas if they don't have an international buyer. That’s how I see the LNG market evolving.”
(paywalled)
“The people who should be worried are the American producers who may not have a market for their gas if they don't have an international buyer. That’s how I see the LNG market evolving.”
(paywalled)
Natural Gas Intelligence just published some info from Goldman Sachs.
'Global natural gas benchmarks are expected to converge closer together in the next three years as LNG supply explodes, which could temporarily close the profitable arb curve for U.S. exports, according to Goldman Sachs. '
'Global natural gas benchmarks are expected to converge closer together in the next three years as LNG supply explodes, which could temporarily close the profitable arb curve for U.S. exports, according to Goldman Sachs. '
November 20, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Natural Gas Intelligence just published some info from Goldman Sachs.
'Global natural gas benchmarks are expected to converge closer together in the next three years as LNG supply explodes, which could temporarily close the profitable arb curve for U.S. exports, according to Goldman Sachs. '
'Global natural gas benchmarks are expected to converge closer together in the next three years as LNG supply explodes, which could temporarily close the profitable arb curve for U.S. exports, according to Goldman Sachs. '
Reposted by Justin Mikulka
The President of the United States just called for Democratic members of Congress to be executed. "HANG THEM", he posted.
If you're a person of influence in this country and you haven't picked a side, maybe now would be the time to pick a fucking side.
If you're a person of influence in this country and you haven't picked a side, maybe now would be the time to pick a fucking side.
November 20, 2025 at 4:15 PM
The President of the United States just called for Democratic members of Congress to be executed. "HANG THEM", he posted.
If you're a person of influence in this country and you haven't picked a side, maybe now would be the time to pick a fucking side.
If you're a person of influence in this country and you haven't picked a side, maybe now would be the time to pick a fucking side.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
― Upton Sinclair
This certainly applies to some people working in the non-profit environmental space, too. Lots of big names in the space trying to make gas seem like a clean fuel.
― Upton Sinclair
This certainly applies to some people working in the non-profit environmental space, too. Lots of big names in the space trying to make gas seem like a clean fuel.
🤥 The myth that gas is a transition fuel is alive and well despite all the evidence to the contrary and a shocking number of people here think phasing out coal means the are on the right side of the fossil fuel phase out even if they are building new LNG and gas infrastructure.
November 20, 2025 at 3:51 PM
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
― Upton Sinclair
This certainly applies to some people working in the non-profit environmental space, too. Lots of big names in the space trying to make gas seem like a clean fuel.
― Upton Sinclair
This certainly applies to some people working in the non-profit environmental space, too. Lots of big names in the space trying to make gas seem like a clean fuel.
The idea that India will import expensive LNG to replace coal power is not one based in reality.
And it's because of simple economics that we know this.
Renewables are cheaper than coal. And coal is much cheaper than LNG.
Do the math.
And it's because of simple economics that we know this.
Renewables are cheaper than coal. And coal is much cheaper than LNG.
Do the math.
India's coal utilisation is set to decline as renewables increasingly meet power demand.
MORE THAN A THIRD of India’s coal assets will run below 40% utilisation by 2032. Expensive plants running above INR 3/kWh risks becoming underutilised or going idle.
https://loom.ly/YXrBeIo
MORE THAN A THIRD of India’s coal assets will run below 40% utilisation by 2032. Expensive plants running above INR 3/kWh risks becoming underutilised or going idle.
https://loom.ly/YXrBeIo
November 20, 2025 at 3:45 PM
The idea that India will import expensive LNG to replace coal power is not one based in reality.
And it's because of simple economics that we know this.
Renewables are cheaper than coal. And coal is much cheaper than LNG.
Do the math.
And it's because of simple economics that we know this.
Renewables are cheaper than coal. And coal is much cheaper than LNG.
Do the math.
Meanwhile Europe is lining up to tie its energy security in the future to a country that doesn't care about them.
Good luck with that.
Good luck with that.
November 20, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Meanwhile Europe is lining up to tie its energy security in the future to a country that doesn't care about them.
Good luck with that.
Good luck with that.
Reposted by Justin Mikulka
“Veterans have done our part for democracy,” he concluded. “We should be at home watching sports and taking naps, not fighting fascism.”
Meet the veteran who chases ICE on a scooter
Clifford “Buzz” Grambo patrols the streets of Baltimore to keep his neighbors safe—and make federal agents uncomfortable.
www.motherjones.com
November 20, 2025 at 3:02 PM
“Veterans have done our part for democracy,” he concluded. “We should be at home watching sports and taking naps, not fighting fascism.”
Battle of the Mikes:
Mike Shellman from Oilystuff:
"We've seen the best the Permian Basin has to offer. That is behind us now. The heart of the watermelon has been eaten. What's left, out towards the rind, will cost more and make less oil and condensate."
Mike Shellman from Oilystuff:
"We've seen the best the Permian Basin has to offer. That is behind us now. The heart of the watermelon has been eaten. What's left, out towards the rind, will cost more and make less oil and condensate."
Discussion - Economic Discussions; Well Costs, Debt, Finance | oilystuffblog
The future of oil and gas is now totally dependent on outside, third party capital. Here we discuss well economics, time to payout, real life return on investments, debt, reserves, corporate finances ...
www.oilystuff.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Battle of the Mikes:
Mike Shellman from Oilystuff:
"We've seen the best the Permian Basin has to offer. That is behind us now. The heart of the watermelon has been eaten. What's left, out towards the rind, will cost more and make less oil and condensate."
Mike Shellman from Oilystuff:
"We've seen the best the Permian Basin has to offer. That is behind us now. The heart of the watermelon has been eaten. What's left, out towards the rind, will cost more and make less oil and condensate."
China is not buying US LNG. It is buying discounted Russian LNG. But still overall LNG imports for China are down quite a bit this year.
"China’s overall LNG imports by volume declined in October by 10.3 per cent, year on year, with the value slumping 27.5 per cent."
"China’s overall LNG imports by volume declined in October by 10.3 per cent, year on year, with the value slumping 27.5 per cent."
China buys Russian LNG at record-high levels, steep discounts as West retreats
Beijing capitalises on discounted energy, securing unprecedented Russian shipments in October while global sanctions reshape trade flows.
www.scmp.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:52 PM
China is not buying US LNG. It is buying discounted Russian LNG. But still overall LNG imports for China are down quite a bit this year.
"China’s overall LNG imports by volume declined in October by 10.3 per cent, year on year, with the value slumping 27.5 per cent."
"China’s overall LNG imports by volume declined in October by 10.3 per cent, year on year, with the value slumping 27.5 per cent."
Reposted by Justin Mikulka
This is a big part of why the US fought so hard for a high-fossil scenario in the WEO: the huge, absurd investments in LNG need an authoritative organisation to put out a forecast saying "errr yeah suuurrrre, the demand'll materialise"
See: @justinmikulka.bsky.social's writing on this
See: @justinmikulka.bsky.social's writing on this
November 20, 2025 at 12:06 PM
This is a big part of why the US fought so hard for a high-fossil scenario in the WEO: the huge, absurd investments in LNG need an authoritative organisation to put out a forecast saying "errr yeah suuurrrre, the demand'll materialise"
See: @justinmikulka.bsky.social's writing on this
See: @justinmikulka.bsky.social's writing on this
In March I wrote this:
"Sometimes it’s good to do your own research. Read some things. So I did. And based on what I’ve read, I’d say the predictions for LNG growth in India are delusional."
Now we learn India's LNG imports are down 22.6% in October.
"Sometimes it’s good to do your own research. Read some things. So I did. And based on what I’ve read, I’d say the predictions for LNG growth in India are delusional."
Now we learn India's LNG imports are down 22.6% in October.
Natural gas demand down 15% in October on high international prices
Consumption in the April-October period is 8.1% lower year-on-year. A mild summer reduced demand from power generators, while tightening supplies of relatively cheaper domestically produced gas have a...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 20, 2025 at 11:25 AM
In March I wrote this:
"Sometimes it’s good to do your own research. Read some things. So I did. And based on what I’ve read, I’d say the predictions for LNG growth in India are delusional."
Now we learn India's LNG imports are down 22.6% in October.
"Sometimes it’s good to do your own research. Read some things. So I did. And based on what I’ve read, I’d say the predictions for LNG growth in India are delusional."
Now we learn India's LNG imports are down 22.6% in October.
Last week I wrote a long piece on how oil demand destruction is likely higher than the consensus and I explained why that is likely. Electrification of trucking in China was a big reason.
I wrote the piece because there was no coverage of the issue.
Well good news! Now there is.
I wrote the piece because there was no coverage of the issue.
Well good news! Now there is.
China's diesel trucks are shifting to electric. That could change global LNG and diesel demand
China is replacing its diesel trucks with electric models faster than expected, potentially reshaping global fuel demand and the future of heavy transport. In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran...
finance.yahoo.com
November 19, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Last week I wrote a long piece on how oil demand destruction is likely higher than the consensus and I explained why that is likely. Electrification of trucking in China was a big reason.
I wrote the piece because there was no coverage of the issue.
Well good news! Now there is.
I wrote the piece because there was no coverage of the issue.
Well good news! Now there is.
Reposted by Justin Mikulka
Gas car sales have fallen 30% from their peak in 2017 as EV's have exploded in popularity around the world
Only one direction for cars and that's cheaper, cleaner and better
Cold as ICE 😎
Only one direction for cars and that's cheaper, cleaner and better
Cold as ICE 😎
November 19, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Gas car sales have fallen 30% from their peak in 2017 as EV's have exploded in popularity around the world
Only one direction for cars and that's cheaper, cleaner and better
Cold as ICE 😎
Only one direction for cars and that's cheaper, cleaner and better
Cold as ICE 😎