Peter Pfleiderer
@klimapeter.bsky.social
Climate researcher at Leipzig University - Climate Causality & Attribution group (https://lim-climate-causality.github.io)
interested in atmospheric circulation and weather extremes | cloud lover
interested in atmospheric circulation and weather extremes | cloud lover
Pinned
Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information - Nature Geoscience
Providing actionable climate information requires an end-user focused approach that links specific local climate risk thresholds with global emissions pathways.
www.nature.com
People need to plan for climate risks. The research is there, but the usability for stakeholders can be limited. We introduce the reversal of the impact chain approach for actionable climate information that allows linking local risk levels directly to GHG emission. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
essd.copernicus.org
January 28, 2026 at 8:48 AM
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference)
[code: github.com/chrisroadmap...
[code: github.com/chrisroadmap...
January 27, 2026 at 1:56 PM
D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference)
[code: github.com/chrisroadmap...
[code: github.com/chrisroadmap...
Summer temperatures have strongly been influenced by circulation changes in the northern mid-latitudes.
In our new study we evaluate and compare 4 statistical and ML methods that decompose trends into a "thermodynamical" and a "circulation induced" part.
wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/8...
In our new study we evaluate and compare 4 statistical and ML methods that decompose trends into a "thermodynamical" and a "circulation induced" part.
wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/8...
Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes
Abstract. Rising summer temperatures and more frequent heat extremes are well-documented outcomes of anthropogenic climate change. However, the extent to which atmospheric circulation changes contribu...
wcd.copernicus.org
January 15, 2026 at 8:51 AM
Summer temperatures have strongly been influenced by circulation changes in the northern mid-latitudes.
In our new study we evaluate and compare 4 statistical and ML methods that decompose trends into a "thermodynamical" and a "circulation induced" part.
wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/8...
In our new study we evaluate and compare 4 statistical and ML methods that decompose trends into a "thermodynamical" and a "circulation induced" part.
wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/8...
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
[...] We consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than anticipated, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
January 14, 2026 at 1:23 PM
[...] We consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than anticipated, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline)
1.41 HadCRUT5
1.44 Berkeley
1.46 JRA-3Q
1.47 Copernicus
1.53 DCENT-I
NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
1.41 HadCRUT5
1.44 Berkeley
1.46 JRA-3Q
1.47 Copernicus
1.53 DCENT-I
NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
January 14, 2026 at 10:03 AM
Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline)
1.41 HadCRUT5
1.44 Berkeley
1.46 JRA-3Q
1.47 Copernicus
1.53 DCENT-I
NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
1.41 HadCRUT5
1.44 Berkeley
1.46 JRA-3Q
1.47 Copernicus
1.53 DCENT-I
NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
🌡️ 2025 was the third-warmest year on record, with a global average temperature 0.59°C above the 1991–2020 average & 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. It was 0.13°C below 2024, the warmest year on record, and only 0.01°C cooler than 2023.
@ecmwf.int
⬇️
@ecmwf.int
⬇️
January 14, 2026 at 9:02 AM
🌡️ 2025 was the third-warmest year on record, with a global average temperature 0.59°C above the 1991–2020 average & 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. It was 0.13°C below 2024, the warmest year on record, and only 0.01°C cooler than 2023.
@ecmwf.int
⬇️
@ecmwf.int
⬇️
🙀 Don't forget to submit your abstract for #EGU26
And please consider submitting to our nice session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics 😻
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
And please consider submitting to our nice session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics 😻
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
January 5, 2026 at 2:32 PM
🙀 Don't forget to submit your abstract for #EGU26
And please consider submitting to our nice session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics 😻
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
And please consider submitting to our nice session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics 😻
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
I'm to announce our session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics at #EGU26
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
November 19, 2025 at 4:35 PM
I'm to announce our session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics at #EGU26
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
Interesting update on SSTs and the state of warming:
🌊📉 Sea surface temperatures have… come back down.
After the big global jump in 2023/24, SSTs are now back at below pre-jump levels in November (climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_dai...).
Climate surprise or expected? What role does climate variability play? Let’s try to unpack 👇
After the big global jump in 2023/24, SSTs are now back at below pre-jump levels in November (climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_dai...).
Climate surprise or expected? What role does climate variability play? Let’s try to unpack 👇
December 15, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Interesting update on SSTs and the state of warming:
2025 was again a severe #hurricane season with 4 major hurricanes (3 cat 5 hurricanes).
In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) it was slightly above a normal season.
Seasonal forecasts (including ours 🥳) predicted the ACE well this year 💪
In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) it was slightly above a normal season.
Seasonal forecasts (including ours 🥳) predicted the ACE well this year 💪
November 20, 2025 at 9:49 PM
2025 was again a severe #hurricane season with 4 major hurricanes (3 cat 5 hurricanes).
In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) it was slightly above a normal season.
Seasonal forecasts (including ours 🥳) predicted the ACE well this year 💪
In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) it was slightly above a normal season.
Seasonal forecasts (including ours 🥳) predicted the ACE well this year 💪
I'm to announce our session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics at #EGU26
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
November 19, 2025 at 4:35 PM
I'm to announce our session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics at #EGU26
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
.. and as a fundamental innovation also enabling us to investigate compound hazards.
Great work @shrutinath97.bsky.social @carlschleussner.bsky.social
@klimapeter.bsky.social J. Carreau & P. Naveau
@iiasa.ac.at @lamont.columbia.edu
Great work @shrutinath97.bsky.social @carlschleussner.bsky.social
@klimapeter.bsky.social J. Carreau & P. Naveau
@iiasa.ac.at @lamont.columbia.edu
Climate emulators are a great tool to explore a wide range of possible climate futures. Here comes MERCURY - utilising the power of image-compression-based techniques for memory-efficient emulation. Fantastic work led by @shrutinath97.bsky.social agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
MERCURY: A Fast and Versatile Multi‐Resolution Based Global Emulator of Compound Climate Hazards
Climate model emulators traditionally generate global fields amounting to Peta-Bytes of data We introduce the emulator MERCURY, that employs a lifting scheme based on image compression techniques...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:42 PM
.. and as a fundamental innovation also enabling us to investigate compound hazards.
Great work @shrutinath97.bsky.social @carlschleussner.bsky.social
@klimapeter.bsky.social J. Carreau & P. Naveau
@iiasa.ac.at @lamont.columbia.edu
Great work @shrutinath97.bsky.social @carlschleussner.bsky.social
@klimapeter.bsky.social J. Carreau & P. Naveau
@iiasa.ac.at @lamont.columbia.edu
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
Climate emulators are a great tool to explore a wide range of possible climate futures. Here comes MERCURY - utilising the power of image-compression-based techniques for memory-efficient emulation. Fantastic work led by @shrutinath97.bsky.social agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
MERCURY: A Fast and Versatile Multi‐Resolution Based Global Emulator of Compound Climate Hazards
Climate model emulators traditionally generate global fields amounting to Peta-Bytes of data We introduce the emulator MERCURY, that employs a lifting scheme based on image compression techniques...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Climate emulators are a great tool to explore a wide range of possible climate futures. Here comes MERCURY - utilising the power of image-compression-based techniques for memory-efficient emulation. Fantastic work led by @shrutinath97.bsky.social agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
“Heat pumps are superior in efficiency to condensing boilers, even if the heat pumps are powered by electricity from a power station burning natural gas.”
Not me saying that but the late Prof Sir David MacKay.
More in my @carbonbrief.org article 👇
interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/he...
Not me saying that but the late Prof Sir David MacKay.
More in my @carbonbrief.org article 👇
interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/he...
November 9, 2025 at 9:05 PM
“Heat pumps are superior in efficiency to condensing boilers, even if the heat pumps are powered by electricity from a power station burning natural gas.”
Not me saying that but the late Prof Sir David MacKay.
More in my @carbonbrief.org article 👇
interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/he...
Not me saying that but the late Prof Sir David MacKay.
More in my @carbonbrief.org article 👇
interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/he...
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
Want to get gridded temperature and precipitation responses to any future climate scenarios, including overshoot?
--> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
--> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
METEORv1.0.1: a novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses
Abstract. Resolved spatial information for climate change projections is critical to any robust assessment of climate impacts and adaptation options. However, the range of spatially resolved future sc...
doi.org
November 6, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Want to get gridded temperature and precipitation responses to any future climate scenarios, including overshoot?
--> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
--> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
Hurricanes feed off of warm water. Watch how quickly the eye of #Melissa collapsed as it moved onto land and over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, and how quickly it is reforming now that it has moved back over water! I will be adding this radar loop to my earth science lectures.
October 29, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Hurricanes feed off of warm water. Watch how quickly the eye of #Melissa collapsed as it moved onto land and over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, and how quickly it is reforming now that it has moved back over water! I will be adding this radar loop to my earth science lectures.
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
To understand the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa, check out our real-time attribution page at @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
October 28, 2025 at 3:25 PM
To understand the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa, check out our real-time attribution page at @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
#Melissa is now the strongest #hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, and it continues to deepen. Pressure has fallen to 913mb. There’s evidence to suggest it is already even stronger than 160 mph winds. It’s possible that will be adjusted upward soon.
October 27, 2025 at 1:55 PM
#Melissa is now the strongest #hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, and it continues to deepen. Pressure has fallen to 913mb. There’s evidence to suggest it is already even stronger than 160 mph winds. It’s possible that will be adjusted upward soon.
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
Vorschieben, Frauen & Mädchen schützen zu wollen, als würde sexualisierte Gewalt vor allem von Migranten ausgehen, ist so hanebüchen wie perfide. Es ist rassistisch und misogyn zugleich - und eine klassische Erzählung von Rechtsextremen, die im Übrigen nicht auf "Schutz", sondern Besitzanspruch fußt
October 20, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Vorschieben, Frauen & Mädchen schützen zu wollen, als würde sexualisierte Gewalt vor allem von Migranten ausgehen, ist so hanebüchen wie perfide. Es ist rassistisch und misogyn zugleich - und eine klassische Erzählung von Rechtsextremen, die im Übrigen nicht auf "Schutz", sondern Besitzanspruch fußt
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
"After nearly 40 years, the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, or ARCUS, will close September 30."
"The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States funded programs that aided Indigenous communities and tracked melting sea ice, among dozens of initiatives."
"The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States funded programs that aided Indigenous communities and tracked melting sea ice, among dozens of initiatives."
After Trump cut the National Science Foundation by 56 percent, a venerable Arctic research center closes its doors
The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States funded programs that aided Indigenous communities and tracked melting sea ice, among dozens of initiatives.
grist.org
September 28, 2025 at 2:10 PM
"After nearly 40 years, the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, or ARCUS, will close September 30."
"The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States funded programs that aided Indigenous communities and tracked melting sea ice, among dozens of initiatives."
"The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States funded programs that aided Indigenous communities and tracked melting sea ice, among dozens of initiatives."
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
#Humberto is now a Cat 5!
It’s the first time in nearly a century with back to back seasons with Cat 5’s in the Atlantic.
We are seeing our warmer future unfold in real-time, IMO. 1/
It’s the first time in nearly a century with back to back seasons with Cat 5’s in the Atlantic.
We are seeing our warmer future unfold in real-time, IMO. 1/
September 27, 2025 at 8:52 PM
#Humberto is now a Cat 5!
It’s the first time in nearly a century with back to back seasons with Cat 5’s in the Atlantic.
We are seeing our warmer future unfold in real-time, IMO. 1/
It’s the first time in nearly a century with back to back seasons with Cat 5’s in the Atlantic.
We are seeing our warmer future unfold in real-time, IMO. 1/
Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
For years climate change research has shown that seasons would struggle with stability issues, perhaps even with less storms, but when a storm breaks through, it is much more likely to rapidly intensify to a top tier hurricane due to heated water. 2/
September 27, 2025 at 8:52 PM
For years climate change research has shown that seasons would struggle with stability issues, perhaps even with less storms, but when a storm breaks through, it is much more likely to rapidly intensify to a top tier hurricane due to heated water. 2/
New study on the impact of aerosol forcing on heat wave attribution by Florian Kraulich ( @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social and me ) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The impact of aerosol forcing on the statistical attribution of heatwaves
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense due to anthropogenic climate change. Accurately attributing changes in their occurrence probability a…
www.sciencedirect.com
September 26, 2025 at 7:46 AM
New study on the impact of aerosol forcing on heat wave attribution by Florian Kraulich ( @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social and me ) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...