Michael Kovrig
@kovrig.bsky.social
Senior Adviser, Asia @crisisgroup.org | Strategic narratives on China, Indo-Pacific, geopolitics, geoeconomics, philosophy and values. Ex-diplomat. Don't start none, won't be none. 实事求是。己所不欲,勿施於人 https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelkovrig
PM @mark-carney.bsky.social’s first official visit to China needs to be not only about warming ties but also managing leverage—specifically, increasing it for Canada and likeminded middle-power democracies.
January 15, 2026 at 7:44 PM
PM @mark-carney.bsky.social’s first official visit to China needs to be not only about warming ties but also managing leverage—specifically, increasing it for Canada and likeminded middle-power democracies.
China’s imports from Canada fell by 10% in 2025, the first annual decline since 2020, @reuters.com reports, just as PM @mark-carney.bsky.social is negotiating in Beijing to try to reverse that decline.
January 15, 2026 at 7:28 PM
China’s imports from Canada fell by 10% in 2025, the first annual decline since 2020, @reuters.com reports, just as PM @mark-carney.bsky.social is negotiating in Beijing to try to reverse that decline.
As Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social talks today with senior Chinese Communist Party officials in Beijing about recalibrating ties and expanding trade, he’ll need to keep in mind this is not about having a trusting relationship.
January 15, 2026 at 1:59 PM
As Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social talks today with senior Chinese Communist Party officials in Beijing about recalibrating ties and expanding trade, he’ll need to keep in mind this is not about having a trusting relationship.
With PM @mark-carney.bsky.social in Beijing to ease tensions and advance economic ties, it’s crucial Canada stays true to its values. As I told @cdnpress.bsky.social: “The government should not allow China to condition it into silence over egregious issues…"
January 15, 2026 at 1:58 PM
With PM @mark-carney.bsky.social in Beijing to ease tensions and advance economic ties, it’s crucial Canada stays true to its values. As I told @cdnpress.bsky.social: “The government should not allow China to condition it into silence over egregious issues…"
Faced with China's surging exports of EVs and coercive trade barriers to European dairy, pork and brandy, the EU is considering swapping its current tariff arrangement for minimum prices, Bloomberg reports.
January 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM
Faced with China's surging exports of EVs and coercive trade barriers to European dairy, pork and brandy, the EU is considering swapping its current tariff arrangement for minimum prices, Bloomberg reports.
Canada’s PM is in Beijing amid trade pressure from China. My top concern is that if his delegation is in a rush to deliver economic benefits, the government could make concessions on national security and policy autonomy and mute diplomacy in return for economic benefits. It shouldn’t do that.
January 14, 2026 at 8:58 PM
Canada’s PM is in Beijing amid trade pressure from China. My top concern is that if his delegation is in a rush to deliver economic benefits, the government could make concessions on national security and policy autonomy and mute diplomacy in return for economic benefits. It shouldn’t do that.
Today in Beijing, Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social has to balance seeking trade deals with deterring coercion. The trip this week is necessary, but China remains Canada’s greatest security threat.
January 14, 2026 at 6:37 PM
Today in Beijing, Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social has to balance seeking trade deals with deterring coercion. The trip this week is necessary, but China remains Canada’s greatest security threat.
Canadian MPs made a commendable trip to Taiwan this week. Particular respect to Adam Chambers, Shelby-Kramp Neuman and Melissa Lantsman for continuing their visit and meeting Taiwanese officials despite pressure surrounding Ottawa-Beijing diplomacy at the moment.
January 14, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Canadian MPs made a commendable trip to Taiwan this week. Particular respect to Adam Chambers, Shelby-Kramp Neuman and Melissa Lantsman for continuing their visit and meeting Taiwanese officials despite pressure surrounding Ottawa-Beijing diplomacy at the moment.
Olive branches with CCP characteristics? 🤔 More like defining the terrain for negotiations, drawing red lines, and cranking up the behavioural conditioning, dangling economic benefits in exchange for subservience...
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
January 14, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Olive branches with CCP characteristics? 🤔 More like defining the terrain for negotiations, drawing red lines, and cranking up the behavioural conditioning, dangling economic benefits in exchange for subservience...
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
As Canada’s prime minister embarks on his first official visit to China, there's a risk the Chinese Communist Party views Ottawa as weak, struggling and abused by Trump—and tries to seize an opportunity to present itself as the reasonable and stable adult in the room.
More in @theguardian.com:
More in @theguardian.com:
Carney heads to Beijing as Trump’s America First agenda forces Canada into trade rethink
Canada’s PM seeks to smooth over past ructions in relationship with China as trade war takes its toll
www.theguardian.com
January 14, 2026 at 1:22 PM
As Canada’s prime minister embarks on his first official visit to China, there's a risk the Chinese Communist Party views Ottawa as weak, struggling and abused by Trump—and tries to seize an opportunity to present itself as the reasonable and stable adult in the room.
More in @theguardian.com:
More in @theguardian.com:
What are PM @mark-carney.bsky.social's top challenges as he jets to China today? The @thestar.com has a tight summary: “how to expand markets for Canadian products — but not to the point of overdependence; how to align with China on big global challenges like climate change..."
Mark Carney seeks a reset with China amid Donald Trump’s chaos and global tensions. Can he succeed where others have failed?
The prime minister is Beijing-bound to “elevate engagement” on trade, energy, agriculture and international security. Among the risks is making compromises that could lead to long-term problems.
www.thestar.com
January 13, 2026 at 7:09 PM
What are PM @mark-carney.bsky.social's top challenges as he jets to China today? The @thestar.com has a tight summary: “how to expand markets for Canadian products — but not to the point of overdependence; how to align with China on big global challenges like climate change..."
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
Hopes are for a reset in relations under Trump’s tariffs, but a wary recalibration is likely a more realistic scenario.
opencanada.org/china-canada...
Hopes are for a reset in relations under Trump’s tariffs, but a wary recalibration is likely a more realistic scenario.
opencanada.org/china-canada...
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust - Open Canada
Hopes are for a reset in relations under Trump’s tariffs, but a wary recalibration is likely a more realistic scenario.
opencanada.org
January 13, 2026 at 3:02 PM
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
Hopes are for a reset in relations under Trump’s tariffs, but a wary recalibration is likely a more realistic scenario.
opencanada.org/china-canada...
Hopes are for a reset in relations under Trump’s tariffs, but a wary recalibration is likely a more realistic scenario.
opencanada.org/china-canada...
Hong Kong publisher Jimmy Lai found guilty of "foreign collusion" and "sedition"
After 1,800 days in mostly solitary confinement, the iconic voice for free speech faces more years as a political prisoner—unless advocacy and pressure can bring clemency
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/hong-kong-...
After 1,800 days in mostly solitary confinement, the iconic voice for free speech faces more years as a political prisoner—unless advocacy and pressure can bring clemency
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/hong-kong-...
Hong Kong publisher Jimmy Lai found guilty of "foreign collusion" and "sedition"
After 1,800 days in mostly solitary confinement, the iconic voice for free speech faces more years as a political prisoner—unless advocacy and pressure can bring clemency
michaelkovrig.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 3:03 PM
Hong Kong publisher Jimmy Lai found guilty of "foreign collusion" and "sedition"
After 1,800 days in mostly solitary confinement, the iconic voice for free speech faces more years as a political prisoner—unless advocacy and pressure can bring clemency
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/hong-kong-...
After 1,800 days in mostly solitary confinement, the iconic voice for free speech faces more years as a political prisoner—unless advocacy and pressure can bring clemency
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/hong-kong-...
Reposted by Michael Kovrig
Canada’s China policy was built around a core assumption: that trade and politics could be kept separate. China has proven otherwise.
Former diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social explains how Beijing uses economic leverage to shape political behaviour abroad: thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
Former diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social explains how Beijing uses economic leverage to shape political behaviour abroad: thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
December 19, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Canada’s China policy was built around a core assumption: that trade and politics could be kept separate. China has proven otherwise.
Former diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social explains how Beijing uses economic leverage to shape political behaviour abroad: thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
Former diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social explains how Beijing uses economic leverage to shape political behaviour abroad: thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
@hrw.org says Canada’s PM @mark-carney.bsky.social should make human rights a key focus of his visit to China.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
January 11, 2026 at 9:45 PM
@hrw.org says Canada’s PM @mark-carney.bsky.social should make human rights a key focus of his visit to China.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
With PM Mark Carney in China this week engaging with top leaders, here's some background reading on the wary recalibration in Canada-China ties.
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
January 11, 2026 at 7:02 PM
With PM Mark Carney in China this week engaging with top leaders, here's some background reading on the wary recalibration in Canada-China ties.
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
Canada's PM @mark-carney.bsky.social is set to meet China's President Xi Jinping next week to discuss trade, energy and security issues in the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017.
Carney to meet with Xi in China next week
YouTube video by CBC News: The National
www.youtube.com
January 10, 2026 at 9:26 PM
Canada's PM @mark-carney.bsky.social is set to meet China's President Xi Jinping next week to discuss trade, energy and security issues in the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017.
Chinese analysts and diplomats say that Canada, under pressure from Trump's tariffs, should tilt toward China. I explain why that would be bad for Canada.
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
Chinese analysts and diplomats say that Canada, under pressure from Trump's tariffs, should tilt toward China. I explain why that would be bad for Canada.
michaelkovrig.substack.com
January 10, 2026 at 7:43 PM
Chinese analysts and diplomats say that Canada, under pressure from Trump's tariffs, should tilt toward China. I explain why that would be bad for Canada.
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
As Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social pushes for stronger economic ties on his first official visit to China next week, he should make sure to uphold universal values and his own and his country's integrity, I told @cdnpress.bsky.social.
Article and video interview in the comments.
Article and video interview in the comments.
January 10, 2026 at 6:52 PM
As Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social pushes for stronger economic ties on his first official visit to China next week, he should make sure to uphold universal values and his own and his country's integrity, I told @cdnpress.bsky.social.
Article and video interview in the comments.
Article and video interview in the comments.
Reposted by Michael Kovrig
China’s trade messaging to Canada is clear: fall in line, or pay the price. But former diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social argues there’s power in refusing to bend, because enduring short-term pain means protecting long-term autonomy. thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
December 20, 2025 at 3:00 PM
China’s trade messaging to Canada is clear: fall in line, or pay the price. But former diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social argues there’s power in refusing to bend, because enduring short-term pain means protecting long-term autonomy. thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
The PRC may try to use Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social’s visit to Beijing next week to drive a wedge between Ottawa and Washington, I told CTV News' Marcia MacMillan.
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
January 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM
The PRC may try to use Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social’s visit to Beijing next week to drive a wedge between Ottawa and Washington, I told CTV News' Marcia MacMillan.
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
Reposted by Michael Kovrig
After Canada imposed import duties on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum in 2024, Beijing hit back by introducing tariffs on Canadian canola. Former Canadian diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social says this isn’t just a trade spat—it’s a pointed strategy. thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
December 23, 2025 at 11:00 PM
After Canada imposed import duties on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum in 2024, Beijing hit back by introducing tariffs on Canadian canola. Former Canadian diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social says this isn’t just a trade spat—it’s a pointed strategy. thewalrus.ca/chinas-trade-ult...
Canada's former PM JEAN CHRÉTIEN was in Beijing Monday to meet Chinese VP HAN ZHENG. Looks like a warm-up act for PM MARK CARNEY's just-announced visit next week, I told @politico.com's Mike Blanchfield. Chrétien's a frequent flyer to China in and out of politics.
Link in comments
Link in comments
January 8, 2026 at 5:22 PM
Canada's former PM JEAN CHRÉTIEN was in Beijing Monday to meet Chinese VP HAN ZHENG. Looks like a warm-up act for PM MARK CARNEY's just-announced visit next week, I told @politico.com's Mike Blanchfield. Chrétien's a frequent flyer to China in and out of politics.
Link in comments
Link in comments
Canada's Mark Carney will travel to China next week. It's the first visit by a Canadian PM since 2017, and the next step in a multi-year attempt to recalibrate relations between Canada and China that requires trying to heal some deep rifts, I told @cbcnews.ca.
January 8, 2026 at 12:05 AM
Canada's Mark Carney will travel to China next week. It's the first visit by a Canadian PM since 2017, and the next step in a multi-year attempt to recalibrate relations between Canada and China that requires trying to heal some deep rifts, I told @cbcnews.ca.
Reposted by Michael Kovrig
"China's agenda... is fundamentally adversarial to Canadian interests and values." — former Canadian diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social (@crisisgroup.org) tells @spaikin.bsky.social that Canada ought to be careful about its choices. | Producer: @hclark.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=WviF...
November 19, 2025 at 6:52 PM
"China's agenda... is fundamentally adversarial to Canadian interests and values." — former Canadian diplomat @kovrig.bsky.social (@crisisgroup.org) tells @spaikin.bsky.social that Canada ought to be careful about its choices. | Producer: @hclark.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=WviF...