Michael Kovrig
@kovrig.bsky.social
Senior Adviser, Asia @crisisgroup.org | Strategic narratives on China, Indo-Pacific, geopolitics, geoeconomics, philosophy and values. Ex-diplomat. Don't start none, won't be none. 实事求是。己所不欲,勿施於人 https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelkovrig
Before Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social's official visit to China, repeated leader-level contacts and sustained bureaucratic engagement created the political space for progress.
January 17, 2026 at 7:46 PM
Before Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social's official visit to China, repeated leader-level contacts and sustained bureaucratic engagement created the political space for progress.
When Western officials sit down with Chinese Party-state counterparts, the most important decisions are often the ones not written into the communiqué.
January 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM
When Western officials sit down with Chinese Party-state counterparts, the most important decisions are often the ones not written into the communiqué.
China’s Xi told Canada’s Carney their two governments should “adhere to the proper way for states to get along with one another.” Question: Does the “proper way” now include NOT taking citizens hostage and torturing them to coerce policy changes?
January 17, 2026 at 6:21 PM
China’s Xi told Canada’s Carney their two governments should “adhere to the proper way for states to get along with one another.” Question: Does the “proper way” now include NOT taking citizens hostage and torturing them to coerce policy changes?
Canada’s International Trade Tribunal has found that steel strapping dumped from China caused injury to Canadian producers, leading to new anti-dumping and countervailing duties to be collected by the Canada Border Services Agency.
January 17, 2026 at 5:26 PM
Canada’s International Trade Tribunal has found that steel strapping dumped from China caused injury to Canadian producers, leading to new anti-dumping and countervailing duties to be collected by the Canada Border Services Agency.
What to make of PM Carney’s first official visit to China? This was never just a courtesy call. Xi Jinping framed the visit as a “turning point” because the CCP wants concrete things from Canada, including market access for its hyper-subsidized EVs, stable energy supplies, & geopolitical deference.
January 17, 2026 at 5:08 PM
What to make of PM Carney’s first official visit to China? This was never just a courtesy call. Xi Jinping framed the visit as a “turning point” because the CCP wants concrete things from Canada, including market access for its hyper-subsidized EVs, stable energy supplies, & geopolitical deference.
Diplomacy is necessary. Grinning is optional. This is not a good look.
January 17, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Diplomacy is necessary. Grinning is optional. This is not a good look.
Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social’s trip to Beijing was widely touted as a chance to stabilize relations. In reality, it was a test of whether Canada can manage pressure without giving ground where it matters. How do you think the PM performed?
January 17, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social’s trip to Beijing was widely touted as a chance to stabilize relations. In reality, it was a test of whether Canada can manage pressure without giving ground where it matters. How do you think the PM performed?
🤯 "China quietly mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice in recent weeks to form massive floating barriers of at least 200 miles long, showing a new level of coordination that could give Beijing more ways to impose control in contested seas.
January 17, 2026 at 1:52 PM
🤯 "China quietly mobilized thousands of fishing boats twice in recent weeks to form massive floating barriers of at least 200 miles long, showing a new level of coordination that could give Beijing more ways to impose control in contested seas.
Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social’s visit to China this week was a return to normal diplomacy, but not a normal relationship. Today all eyes are on the trade deals and de-escalation on electric vehicles and canola. More on that later.
January 17, 2026 at 3:17 AM
Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social’s visit to China this week was a return to normal diplomacy, but not a normal relationship. Today all eyes are on the trade deals and de-escalation on electric vehicles and canola. More on that later.
With Canada’s prime minister in China pitching a “new strategic partnership” for a “new world order” the real question isn’t whether Canada should talk to China’s Communist Party, but HOW to do it without trading national security, citizens’ rights, or policy autonomy for short-term economic relief.
January 16, 2026 at 6:11 PM
With Canada’s prime minister in China pitching a “new strategic partnership” for a “new world order” the real question isn’t whether Canada should talk to China’s Communist Party, but HOW to do it without trading national security, citizens’ rights, or policy autonomy for short-term economic relief.
When Beijing says relations have “turned around,” it’s not reassurance — it’s a test. Thursday's PRC Foreign Ministry readout of talks with Canada’s PM is packed with familiar phrases: mutual respect, core interests, seeking common ground, pragmatic cooperation.
January 16, 2026 at 4:00 PM
When Beijing says relations have “turned around,” it’s not reassurance — it’s a test. Thursday's PRC Foreign Ministry readout of talks with Canada’s PM is packed with familiar phrases: mutual respect, core interests, seeking common ground, pragmatic cooperation.
PM @mark-carney.bsky.social's government has to strike a very careful balance between seeking economic opportunities while safeguarding national interest. In an interview with @nytimes.com, I urged Mr. Carney to be cautious as he embarks on this new phase in Canada-China relations.
January 16, 2026 at 2:14 PM
PM @mark-carney.bsky.social's government has to strike a very careful balance between seeking economic opportunities while safeguarding national interest. In an interview with @nytimes.com, I urged Mr. Carney to be cautious as he embarks on this new phase in Canada-China relations.
PM @mark-carney.bsky.social’s first official visit to China needs to be not only about warming ties but also managing leverage—specifically, increasing it for Canada and likeminded middle-power democracies.
January 15, 2026 at 7:44 PM
PM @mark-carney.bsky.social’s first official visit to China needs to be not only about warming ties but also managing leverage—specifically, increasing it for Canada and likeminded middle-power democracies.
China’s imports from Canada fell by 10% in 2025, the first annual decline since 2020, @reuters.com reports, just as PM @mark-carney.bsky.social is negotiating in Beijing to try to reverse that decline.
January 15, 2026 at 7:28 PM
China’s imports from Canada fell by 10% in 2025, the first annual decline since 2020, @reuters.com reports, just as PM @mark-carney.bsky.social is negotiating in Beijing to try to reverse that decline.
Faced with China's surging exports of EVs and coercive trade barriers to European dairy, pork and brandy, the EU is considering swapping its current tariff arrangement for minimum prices, Bloomberg reports.
January 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM
Faced with China's surging exports of EVs and coercive trade barriers to European dairy, pork and brandy, the EU is considering swapping its current tariff arrangement for minimum prices, Bloomberg reports.
Today in Beijing, Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social has to balance seeking trade deals with deterring coercion. The trip this week is necessary, but China remains Canada’s greatest security threat.
January 14, 2026 at 6:37 PM
Today in Beijing, Canadian PM @mark-carney.bsky.social has to balance seeking trade deals with deterring coercion. The trip this week is necessary, but China remains Canada’s greatest security threat.
Canadian MPs made a commendable trip to Taiwan this week. Particular respect to Adam Chambers, Shelby-Kramp Neuman and Melissa Lantsman for continuing their visit and meeting Taiwanese officials despite pressure surrounding Ottawa-Beijing diplomacy at the moment.
January 14, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Canadian MPs made a commendable trip to Taiwan this week. Particular respect to Adam Chambers, Shelby-Kramp Neuman and Melissa Lantsman for continuing their visit and meeting Taiwanese officials despite pressure surrounding Ottawa-Beijing diplomacy at the moment.
Olive branches with CCP characteristics? 🤔 More like defining the terrain for negotiations, drawing red lines, and cranking up the behavioural conditioning, dangling economic benefits in exchange for subservience...
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
January 14, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Olive branches with CCP characteristics? 🤔 More like defining the terrain for negotiations, drawing red lines, and cranking up the behavioural conditioning, dangling economic benefits in exchange for subservience...
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/12/...
See my commentary below to make sense of it.
@hrw.org says Canada’s PM @mark-carney.bsky.social should make human rights a key focus of his visit to China.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
January 11, 2026 at 9:45 PM
@hrw.org says Canada’s PM @mark-carney.bsky.social should make human rights a key focus of his visit to China.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
The CCP has significantly increased its authoritarian repression both at home and abroad, HRW warns. Last week police detained Christian church members.
China Secretly Executed Four Canadians. I Explain Why. How the Chinese Communist Party uses the death penalty for domestic intimidation and diplomatic leverage
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-secr...
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-secr...
January 11, 2026 at 9:27 PM
China Secretly Executed Four Canadians. I Explain Why. How the Chinese Communist Party uses the death penalty for domestic intimidation and diplomatic leverage
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-secr...
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-secr...
With PM Mark Carney in China this week engaging with top leaders, here's some background reading on the wary recalibration in Canada-China ties.
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
January 11, 2026 at 7:02 PM
With PM Mark Carney in China this week engaging with top leaders, here's some background reading on the wary recalibration in Canada-China ties.
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
Canada-China Relations: Amid Trump Tariffs, Expect a Wary Recalibration, Not a Reset institutmontaigne.org/ressources/d...
Carney must defend values while seeking trade in China visit
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/mic...
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/mic...
January 10, 2026 at 6:52 PM
Carney must defend values while seeking trade in China visit
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/mic...
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/mic...
As Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social pushes for stronger economic ties on his first official visit to China next week, he should make sure to uphold universal values and his own and his country's integrity, I told @cdnpress.bsky.social.
Article and video interview in the comments.
Article and video interview in the comments.
January 10, 2026 at 6:52 PM
As Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social pushes for stronger economic ties on his first official visit to China next week, he should make sure to uphold universal values and his own and his country's integrity, I told @cdnpress.bsky.social.
Article and video interview in the comments.
Article and video interview in the comments.
Dive deeper: China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
January 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM
Dive deeper: China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
michaelkovrig.substack.com/p/china-cana...
The PRC may try to use Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social’s visit to Beijing next week to drive a wedge between Ottawa and Washington, I told CTV News' Marcia MacMillan.
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
January 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM
The PRC may try to use Canadian Prime Minister @mark-carney.bsky.social’s visit to Beijing next week to drive a wedge between Ottawa and Washington, I told CTV News' Marcia MacMillan.
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...