Michael Kovrig
@kovrig.bsky.social
Senior Adviser, Asia @crisisgroup.org | Strategic narratives on China, Indo-Pacific, geopolitics, geoeconomics, philosophy and values. Ex-diplomat. Don't start none, won't be none. 实事求是。己所不欲,勿施於人 https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelkovrig
Optics matter and some signals from the last two days are deeply concerning.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/w...
Caught Between Superpowers, Canada Seeks a New Path in Beijing
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Optics matter and some signals from the last two days are deeply concerning.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/w...
As he recalibrates relations, reopens dialogue channels and revives trade and investment in some carefully bounded and screened sectors, his policy challenge is to do it within a framework that protects Canadian values, interests and sovereignty.
January 16, 2026 at 2:14 PM
As he recalibrates relations, reopens dialogue channels and revives trade and investment in some carefully bounded and screened sectors, his policy challenge is to do it within a framework that protects Canadian values, interests and sovereignty.
Canada’s previous hardline policy toward China was not just a matter of adopting U.S. policy, but also because of warnings from Canada’s security services.
January 16, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Canada’s previous hardline policy toward China was not just a matter of adopting U.S. policy, but also because of warnings from Canada’s security services.
More in Marcia MacMillan's CTV News interview with me: www.ctvnews.ca/video/2026/0...
Navigating delicate dialogue with China is about 'managing risk': Kovrig
Michael Kovrig, former Canadian diplomat who was held in China for years, comments on the country’s impact on Canada-U.S. trade relations.
www.ctvnews.ca
January 15, 2026 at 7:44 PM
More in Marcia MacMillan's CTV News interview with me: www.ctvnews.ca/video/2026/0...
Carney should advocate for better consular access, treatment, and early release, for them and other political prisoners like Hong Kong’s Jimmy Lai.
January 15, 2026 at 7:44 PM
Carney should advocate for better consular access, treatment, and early release, for them and other political prisoners like Hong Kong’s Jimmy Lai.
And it’s not just about economics and geopolitics, there’s a critical human dimension. About 100 Canadians are suffering in Chinese prisons, including political and human rights cases.
January 15, 2026 at 7:44 PM
And it’s not just about economics and geopolitics, there’s a critical human dimension. About 100 Canadians are suffering in Chinese prisons, including political and human rights cases.
That’s why engagement has to be handled with discipline. Falling into a transactional, deal-by-deal pattern risks harming broader national interests. Over time, that approach narrows policy autonomy and weakens diplomatic leverage — a bad deal, and one Canada shouldn’t take.
January 15, 2026 at 7:44 PM
That’s why engagement has to be handled with discipline. Falling into a transactional, deal-by-deal pattern risks harming broader national interests. Over time, that approach narrows policy autonomy and weakens diplomatic leverage — a bad deal, and one Canada shouldn’t take.
Chinese negotiators are extremely adroit, calculating, and always looking for leverage. They understand the constraints Ottawa faces with Washington and will look for pressure points both inside and outside the negotiating room, including tariffs, sanctions, and other forms of coercion.
January 15, 2026 at 7:44 PM
Chinese negotiators are extremely adroit, calculating, and always looking for leverage. They understand the constraints Ottawa faces with Washington and will look for pressure points both inside and outside the negotiating room, including tariffs, sanctions, and other forms of coercion.
You do that by setting limits for how dependent any one sector or company can become on China’s market, diversifying trading partners and incentivising companies to do more business with more reliable partners that share interests and values.
Read more here: www.reuters.com/world/china/...
Read more here: www.reuters.com/world/china/...
China's 2025 Canadian import slump to remind visiting Carney of economic stakes
China bought fewer goods from Canada last year for the first time since 2020, according to Chinese data released on the same day as the Canadian prime minister starts his China visit, in a stark remin...
www.reuters.com
January 15, 2026 at 7:28 PM
You do that by setting limits for how dependent any one sector or company can become on China’s market, diversifying trading partners and incentivising companies to do more business with more reliable partners that share interests and values.
Read more here: www.reuters.com/world/china/...
Read more here: www.reuters.com/world/china/...
The solution is to ensure that the PRC and other great powers that like to weaponize interdependence can’t apply that leverage.
January 15, 2026 at 7:28 PM
The solution is to ensure that the PRC and other great powers that like to weaponize interdependence can’t apply that leverage.
The drop—likely at least partly the result of Chinese countervailing duties on key Canadian commodity exports—is a stark reminder of the economic leverage Beijing has acquired over Ottawa—and how readily trade can be used to shape the political behaviour of smaller powers.
January 15, 2026 at 7:28 PM
The drop—likely at least partly the result of Chinese countervailing duties on key Canadian commodity exports—is a stark reminder of the economic leverage Beijing has acquired over Ottawa—and how readily trade can be used to shape the political behaviour of smaller powers.
It's about having strong guardrails and setting parameters for the limited areas in which mutually self-interested cooperation is possible.
That and more in my interview with @cbcnews.ca: www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
That and more in my interview with @cbcnews.ca: www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
Carney to meet with Xi in China next week
Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet Chinese president Xi Jinping next week to discuss trade, energy and security issues in the first visit by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017.
www.cbc.ca
January 15, 2026 at 1:59 PM
It's about having strong guardrails and setting parameters for the limited areas in which mutually self-interested cooperation is possible.
That and more in my interview with @cbcnews.ca: www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
That and more in my interview with @cbcnews.ca: www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
"It’s ultimately about keeping hold of your values and your integrity and having a strategic approach that prioritizes your national interests, rather than just looking at relations deal by deal.”
More here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXo4...
More here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXo4...
Michael Kovrig says Carney must preserve values while seeking trade in China visit
YouTube video by The Canadian Press
www.youtube.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:58 PM
"It’s ultimately about keeping hold of your values and your integrity and having a strategic approach that prioritizes your national interests, rather than just looking at relations deal by deal.”
More here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXo4...
More here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXo4...
Bottom line: long term, this would be palliative treatment for EU carmakers. Beijing should love this idea. Europe, not so much.
January 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM
Bottom line: long term, this would be palliative treatment for EU carmakers. Beijing should love this idea. Europe, not so much.
What could happen? Eroding market shares for European producers, less incentive for unpleasant but necessary EU reforms, and deepening dependence on Chinese battery and component supply chains. Europeans are mortgaging their industrial future to buy time in 2026.
January 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM
What could happen? Eroding market shares for European producers, less incentive for unpleasant but necessary EU reforms, and deepening dependence on Chinese battery and component supply chains. Europeans are mortgaging their industrial future to buy time in 2026.
-AND price floors drift down over time
-AND with carmakers like Chery getting to repatriate profits that previously went to tariffs, they'll have more money to reinvest in becoming more competitive
-AND it drives a wedge between the EU and the US, which has committed to the "hard no" of 100% tariffs
-AND with carmakers like Chery getting to repatriate profits that previously went to tariffs, they'll have more money to reinvest in becoming more competitive
-AND it drives a wedge between the EU and the US, which has committed to the "hard no" of 100% tariffs
January 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM
-AND price floors drift down over time
-AND with carmakers like Chery getting to repatriate profits that previously went to tariffs, they'll have more money to reinvest in becoming more competitive
-AND it drives a wedge between the EU and the US, which has committed to the "hard no" of 100% tariffs
-AND with carmakers like Chery getting to repatriate profits that previously went to tariffs, they'll have more money to reinvest in becoming more competitive
-AND it drives a wedge between the EU and the US, which has committed to the "hard no" of 100% tariffs
Why? It only deals with price competition, not market structure and industrial capacity, and China's EV sector has built up staggering advantages there in scale, vertical integration, product cycles, etc. Minimum prices do nothing to close the capability gap between ecosystems.
January 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM
Why? It only deals with price competition, not market structure and industrial capacity, and China's EV sector has built up staggering advantages there in scale, vertical integration, product cycles, etc. Minimum prices do nothing to close the capability gap between ecosystems.
Will it work? I reckon in the short term it can de-escalate the trade dispute, but in the long run it will fail unless part of a much more comprehensive response including quotas and massive economic reforms.
January 14, 2026 at 10:17 PM
Will it work? I reckon in the short term it can de-escalate the trade dispute, but in the long run it will fail unless part of a much more comprehensive response including quotas and massive economic reforms.