mdebarkle
@mdebarkle.bsky.social
with a sparkle. stuff i like : disease vectors / evolution. philosophy of science. animal mentation. geology. botany. maps. history. databasory. exotic musical instrumentation. breaking things since childhood.
Reposted by mdebarkle
BA.3.2 is behaving differently than any of the other variants we've seen.
I've been wondering for some time if this is our first example of co-circulation, where only part of the population is susceptable to infection. It is starting to look stabilized in Germany, does not look like a sweep.
I've been wondering for some time if this is our first example of co-circulation, where only part of the population is susceptable to infection. It is starting to look stabilized in Germany, does not look like a sweep.
February 1, 2026 at 9:21 PM
BA.3.2 is behaving differently than any of the other variants we've seen.
I've been wondering for some time if this is our first example of co-circulation, where only part of the population is susceptable to infection. It is starting to look stabilized in Germany, does not look like a sweep.
I've been wondering for some time if this is our first example of co-circulation, where only part of the population is susceptable to infection. It is starting to look stabilized in Germany, does not look like a sweep.
Reposted by mdebarkle
A manual for ICE's immigrant-targeting computer system, Palantir ELITE, was leaked today.
Let's look at it, then step back to evaluate how far we've come along a dangerous road and where that road might take us. 🧵
Let's look at it, then step back to evaluate how far we've come along a dangerous road and where that road might take us. 🧵
Here is the User Guide for ELITE, the Tool Palantir Made for ICE
404 Media is publishing a version of the user guide for ELITE, which lets ICE bring up dossiers on individual people and provides a “confidence score” of their address.
www.404media.co
January 31, 2026 at 3:37 AM
A manual for ICE's immigrant-targeting computer system, Palantir ELITE, was leaked today.
Let's look at it, then step back to evaluate how far we've come along a dangerous road and where that road might take us. 🧵
Let's look at it, then step back to evaluate how far we've come along a dangerous road and where that road might take us. 🧵
Reposted by mdebarkle
New Cryptic (North Carolina) derived from a 2020, pre-B.1.1 lineage, meaning from an infection that has lasted nearly six years.
It has one of the classic patterns of Cryptic reversions to Bat-CoV/SARS-1 spike residues: Q498Y-N501T.
Eager to see the rest of the genome.
It has one of the classic patterns of Cryptic reversions to Bat-CoV/SARS-1 spike residues: Q498Y-N501T.
Eager to see the rest of the genome.
January 24, 2026 at 11:03 PM
New Cryptic (North Carolina) derived from a 2020, pre-B.1.1 lineage, meaning from an infection that has lasted nearly six years.
It has one of the classic patterns of Cryptic reversions to Bat-CoV/SARS-1 spike residues: Q498Y-N501T.
Eager to see the rest of the genome.
It has one of the classic patterns of Cryptic reversions to Bat-CoV/SARS-1 spike residues: Q498Y-N501T.
Eager to see the rest of the genome.
Reposted by mdebarkle
BA.3.2 has gone from ~8% to ~44% of all sequences in Scotland over the course of December.
Larger sample sizes in a smaller nation (Scotland), unsurprisingly present a much more consistent picture in variant trends than smaller sample sizes over a much larger, more heterogeneous country (Germany).
Larger sample sizes in a smaller nation (Scotland), unsurprisingly present a much more consistent picture in variant trends than smaller sample sizes over a much larger, more heterogeneous country (Germany).
January 26, 2026 at 5:41 PM
BA.3.2 has gone from ~8% to ~44% of all sequences in Scotland over the course of December.
Larger sample sizes in a smaller nation (Scotland), unsurprisingly present a much more consistent picture in variant trends than smaller sample sizes over a much larger, more heterogeneous country (Germany).
Larger sample sizes in a smaller nation (Scotland), unsurprisingly present a much more consistent picture in variant trends than smaller sample sizes over a much larger, more heterogeneous country (Germany).
Reposted by mdebarkle
It's a slow but persistent wave.
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
January 22, 2026 at 1:19 PM
It's a slow but persistent wave.
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
Reposted by mdebarkle
Still more new NSP1 mutations in the BA.3.2 uploaded from the Netherlands today. We've never seen anything like this kind of rapid evolution in NSP1 (whose primary role is to shut down host-protein translation and degrade host mRNA).
I've labeled all BA.3.2-specific NSP1 muts here. 1/3
I've labeled all BA.3.2-specific NSP1 muts here. 1/3
January 20, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Still more new NSP1 mutations in the BA.3.2 uploaded from the Netherlands today. We've never seen anything like this kind of rapid evolution in NSP1 (whose primary role is to shut down host-protein translation and degrade host mRNA).
I've labeled all BA.3.2-specific NSP1 muts here. 1/3
I've labeled all BA.3.2-specific NSP1 muts here. 1/3
Reposted by mdebarkle
BA.3.2 emerged in Nov 2024 after ~3 years of intrahost evolution with >50 new spike AA muts, but since then, it's changed very little.
Could the mutagenic drug molnupiravir (MOV) galvanize BA.3.2 into pursuing new evolutionary paths? A new 89-mut BA.3.2 sequence hints that it could. 1/11
Could the mutagenic drug molnupiravir (MOV) galvanize BA.3.2 into pursuing new evolutionary paths? A new 89-mut BA.3.2 sequence hints that it could. 1/11
December 24, 2025 at 10:03 PM
BA.3.2 emerged in Nov 2024 after ~3 years of intrahost evolution with >50 new spike AA muts, but since then, it's changed very little.
Could the mutagenic drug molnupiravir (MOV) galvanize BA.3.2 into pursuing new evolutionary paths? A new 89-mut BA.3.2 sequence hints that it could. 1/11
Could the mutagenic drug molnupiravir (MOV) galvanize BA.3.2 into pursuing new evolutionary paths? A new 89-mut BA.3.2 sequence hints that it could. 1/11
Reposted by mdebarkle
There’s an Arabic version of “every cloud has a silver lining” that translates to “no cows, no feeding them at dawn.” A Scots version is “today’s rain is tomorrow’s whisky.” And a Romanian phrase for looking on the bright side is un șut în fund, un pas înainte, or “a kick in the ass, a step forward”
December 21, 2025 at 3:58 PM
There’s an Arabic version of “every cloud has a silver lining” that translates to “no cows, no feeding them at dawn.” A Scots version is “today’s rain is tomorrow’s whisky.” And a Romanian phrase for looking on the bright side is un șut în fund, un pas înainte, or “a kick in the ass, a step forward”
Reposted by mdebarkle
Ten archaic English slang phrases…
10. Got the morbs (sad)
9. Bumpsy (drunk)
8. Whittled as a penguin (very drunk)
8. Scandal water (tea)
7. Bitch the pot (pour the tea)
5. Sauce-box (mouth)
4. Cupid’s kettle drums (breasts)
3. Dash my wig (OMG)
2. Poked up (embarrassed)
1. Not up to dick (unwell)
10. Got the morbs (sad)
9. Bumpsy (drunk)
8. Whittled as a penguin (very drunk)
8. Scandal water (tea)
7. Bitch the pot (pour the tea)
5. Sauce-box (mouth)
4. Cupid’s kettle drums (breasts)
3. Dash my wig (OMG)
2. Poked up (embarrassed)
1. Not up to dick (unwell)
December 19, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Ten archaic English slang phrases…
10. Got the morbs (sad)
9. Bumpsy (drunk)
8. Whittled as a penguin (very drunk)
8. Scandal water (tea)
7. Bitch the pot (pour the tea)
5. Sauce-box (mouth)
4. Cupid’s kettle drums (breasts)
3. Dash my wig (OMG)
2. Poked up (embarrassed)
1. Not up to dick (unwell)
10. Got the morbs (sad)
9. Bumpsy (drunk)
8. Whittled as a penguin (very drunk)
8. Scandal water (tea)
7. Bitch the pot (pour the tea)
5. Sauce-box (mouth)
4. Cupid’s kettle drums (breasts)
3. Dash my wig (OMG)
2. Poked up (embarrassed)
1. Not up to dick (unwell)
Reposted by mdebarkle
A French expression telling someone to mind their beeswax is occupe-toi de tes oignons. It means “deal with your own onions.”
December 17, 2025 at 1:17 PM
A French expression telling someone to mind their beeswax is occupe-toi de tes oignons. It means “deal with your own onions.”
Reposted by mdebarkle
With 30 new BA.3.2 sequences from the Netherlands and Denmark uploaded today, this is beginning to have a look of inevitability about it.
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Three more BA.3.2 detections from US wastewater. Rhode Island (different sewershed, but near the previous one), Vermont, and Florida. All from CDC NWSS data.
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
December 11, 2025 at 10:24 PM
With 30 new BA.3.2 sequences from the Netherlands and Denmark uploaded today, this is beginning to have a look of inevitability about it.
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Reposted by mdebarkle
Egg producers suspect bird flu is traveling through the air.
After a disastrous Midwestern outbreak early this year, we tested that theory and found that where the wind blew, the virus followed.
Vaccines could help, but the USDA hasn’t approved them.
After a disastrous Midwestern outbreak early this year, we tested that theory and found that where the wind blew, the virus followed.
Vaccines could help, but the USDA hasn’t approved them.
What the U.S. Government Is Dismissing That Could Seed a Bird Flu Pandemic
Egg producers suspect bird flu is traveling through the air. After a disastrous Midwestern outbreak early this year, we tested that theory and found that where the wind blew, the virus followed. Vacci...
www.propublica.org
December 4, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Egg producers suspect bird flu is traveling through the air.
After a disastrous Midwestern outbreak early this year, we tested that theory and found that where the wind blew, the virus followed.
Vaccines could help, but the USDA hasn’t approved them.
After a disastrous Midwestern outbreak early this year, we tested that theory and found that where the wind blew, the virus followed.
Vaccines could help, but the USDA hasn’t approved them.
Reposted by mdebarkle
One thing we've consistently seen is that if an emerging divergent variant competes evenly w/the most advanced circulating variants, it will eventually predominate. We saw this with XBB & BA.2.86, and a similar pattern holds among various minor lineages. 1/3
Seven new BA.3.2.2 from Germany today spotted by @JosetteSchoenma. They are genetically dispersed and are therefore clearly not a cluster. As @snpoehlm says, this is ~5% of all sequences and ~15% in North Rhine-Westphalia. Collection dates Nov 6-18.
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
December 3, 2025 at 1:54 PM
One thing we've consistently seen is that if an emerging divergent variant competes evenly w/the most advanced circulating variants, it will eventually predominate. We saw this with XBB & BA.2.86, and a similar pattern holds among various minor lineages. 1/3
Reposted by mdebarkle
Another US BA.3.2 wastewater detection.
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
November 26, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Another US BA.3.2 wastewater detection.
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
Reposted by mdebarkle
To combat bird flu spread, other countries have authorized poultry vaccines. The U.S. hasn’t, amid political and economic pushback.
Without a vaccine, experts say the virus poses an escalating threat: “The minute it transmits to humans, it’s done.”
By @natlash.bsky.social
Without a vaccine, experts say the virus poses an escalating threat: “The minute it transmits to humans, it’s done.”
By @natlash.bsky.social
What the U.S. Government Is Dismissing That Could Seed a Bird Flu Pandemic
Egg producers suspect bird flu is traveling through the air. After a disastrous Midwestern outbreak early this year, we tested that theory and found that where the wind blew, the virus followed. Vacci...
www.propublica.org
November 26, 2025 at 1:00 AM
To combat bird flu spread, other countries have authorized poultry vaccines. The U.S. hasn’t, amid political and economic pushback.
Without a vaccine, experts say the virus poses an escalating threat: “The minute it transmits to humans, it’s done.”
By @natlash.bsky.social
Without a vaccine, experts say the virus poses an escalating threat: “The minute it transmits to humans, it’s done.”
By @natlash.bsky.social
Reposted by mdebarkle
Flu Overview update.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
What should we expect this flu season?
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
November 25, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Flu Overview update.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
Reposted by mdebarkle
My work on SARS-CoV-2 variants informed a recent piece in The Lancet: "Epidemiological and virological update on the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.3.2".
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
Epidemiological and virological update on the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.3.2
The constant emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants has driven the COVID-19 pandemic
and sustains the current endemic. Saltation variants, such as BA.2.86,1 encode highly
mutated spike (S) proteins th...
www.thelancet.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:30 AM
My work on SARS-CoV-2 variants informed a recent piece in The Lancet: "Epidemiological and virological update on the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.3.2".
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
The authors were kind enough to mention me and the Variant Hunters Ryan Hisner and Federico Gueli.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
🧵
Reposted by mdebarkle
Fascinating 🧵. The grotesquely mutated spike of this NJ Cryptic binds ACE2 very tightly.
It raises a broader question: Can cryptic wastewater-like lineages transmit?
YES
We knew it happened once. Now we know it's happened at least twice. The results in both cases were not pretty. 1/15
It raises a broader question: Can cryptic wastewater-like lineages transmit?
YES
We knew it happened once. Now we know it's happened at least twice. The results in both cases were not pretty. 1/15
This is wild.
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
November 22, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Fascinating 🧵. The grotesquely mutated spike of this NJ Cryptic binds ACE2 very tightly.
It raises a broader question: Can cryptic wastewater-like lineages transmit?
YES
We knew it happened once. Now we know it's happened at least twice. The results in both cases were not pretty. 1/15
It raises a broader question: Can cryptic wastewater-like lineages transmit?
YES
We knew it happened once. Now we know it's happened at least twice. The results in both cases were not pretty. 1/15
Reposted by mdebarkle
BA.3.2 has been detected again in the USA.
Oh crap. There was a BA.3.2 in California last week.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
November 19, 2025 at 11:11 PM
BA.3.2 has been detected again in the USA.
Reposted by mdebarkle
Fascinating one. Massive increase in ACE2 binding with S:I358F according to @jbloomlab.bsky.social DMS—among the highest of any viable mutation. Seems to inhibit entry and increases vulnerability to antibodies, but with a colossal ACE2 boost like that, it could easily find other Ab-evading muts.
November 19, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Fascinating one. Massive increase in ACE2 binding with S:I358F according to @jbloomlab.bsky.social DMS—among the highest of any viable mutation. Seems to inhibit entry and increases vulnerability to antibodies, but with a colossal ACE2 boost like that, it could easily find other Ab-evading muts.
Reposted by mdebarkle
MBS claims the murder of Khashoggi was "a huge mistake and we're our doing our best that this doesn't happen again."
November 18, 2025 at 5:48 PM
MBS claims the murder of Khashoggi was "a huge mistake and we're our doing our best that this doesn't happen again."