Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 23h

Last December, China sought to choke off America's access to a critical strategic mineral. But in a new post, I find that supply chains adjusted at lightning speed.

Belgium, of all places, has replaced China as America's top source. It shows that weaponizing trade can have very strange side-effects

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 1d

*What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.–China Trade War*

China has banned the export of antimony to the U.S. But in a new post, I find that global supply chains - both legal and illegal - are finding ways to adjust.

#polisky #econsky #lawsky #china

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/what-one-m...

What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.–China Trade War

China has imposed strict controls on the export of antimony. But global supply chains, both legal and illegal, are finding ways to adapt.

mileskellerman.substack.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 15d

As Lester Bangs once said, "You'll meet them all again on their long journey to the middle"

www.ft.com/content/5b00...

Stablecoin issuer Circle examines ‘reversible’ transactions in departure for crypto

President says sector should learn from traditional finance and allow refunds in cases of fraud or disputes

www.ft.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 23d

Devils in the details. EU wants to issue long-term bonds backed by frozen Russian assets. Requires guarantee sanctions are in place throughout maturation period (the legal basis of the freeze). But sanctions must be renewed by unanimous vote every six months.

www.ft.com/content/4585...

EU explores using €170bn of Russia’s frozen assets to fund Ukraine

Some capitals remain wary over ‘reparation loans’ plan, as US calls on G7 to tap Moscow’s money immobilised abroad

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Miles Kellerman

Matt Collin @mattcollin.bsky.social · 24d

🚨New working paper🚨

In this updated work with Annette Alstadsaeter, @bluebery-planterose.com , @gabrielzucman.bsky.social and @andokl.bsky.social , we use leaked data to chart the rise of offshore real estate in Dubai

www.taxobservatory.eu//www-site/up...

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 25d

"Sri Lanka has denied Chinese military vessels entry into Hambantota several times despite China Merchant Group having an 85 percent controlling stake in the port...while [CMG] may have a controlling stake to operate the port, the Sri Lanka Port Authority, a state body, retains legal ownership."

War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 25d

The truth about China’s port empire isn’t in the headlines — it’s in the messy details.

Ports, Politics, and Power: The Messy Reality of China’s Overseas Port Investments

What if China’s global port empire isn’t the master plan Washington fears, but a patchwork of messy deals shaped as much by local politics as Beijing’s

warontherocks.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 26d

Fascinating topic and thought-provoking argument about the dangers of preemptively striking suspicious satellites —>

Oona Hathaway @oonahathaway.bsky.social · 26d

Anti-satellite weapons are proliferating and now include the prospect of a nuclear-armed satellite capable of wiping out our entire communications infrastructure.

We tackle the many hard legal issues this new reality raises @nyulawreview.bsky.social.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Sep 6

“…SEALs punctured the [civilian] boat crew’s lungs with knives to make sure their bodies would sink.”

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...

How a Top Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission Into North Korea Fell Apart

www.nytimes.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Sep 1

Following post-Crimea sanctions, "Russian deposits in tax havens increased by an average of 15% relative to their synthetic control [$2.25 billion]"

From new working paper by Langenmayr et al, "Bypassing Sanctions: Hide ‘n Seek in Tax Havens?"

www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...

www.ifo.de

Reposted by Miles Kellerman

Barack Obama @barackobama.bsky.social · Aug 28

This interview, which is also available to listen to as a podcast, provides a useful overview of some of the dangerous trends we’ve been seeing in recent months regarding federalization and militarization of state and local police functions.

Opinion | Trump Is Building His Own Paramilitary Force

www.nytimes.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 28

FinCEN released a notice today urging financial institutions to pay attention to Chinese-Mexican money laundering networks. I touched on this topic in a prior post and have a lengthier piece in progress -->

FinCEN release: www.fincen.gov/sites/defaul...

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-disass...

The (Dis)assembly of Information

Chinese crime syndicates are operating underground banks to launder the proceeds of fentanyl sales. But their practices, and the risks they pose, are far from new.

mileskellerman.substack.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 27

bsky.app/profile/jake...

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · Aug 26

Man

A brief history of inflation in Turkey,
OR: What happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic preference for low interest rates undermines the central bank and appoints loyallists?
Inflation rate in Turkey (CPI)
86%
80%
60
40
Erdogan signals that he plans to take control of monetary policy
38%
20
www
2014
2016
0
2010
2012
Chart: @JustinWolfers • Source: OECD
2018
2020
2022
2024

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 26

“only 3.5% to 20% of those who finish their program achieve this goal [TT position].” Brutal stats

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 26

“The reality of Trump’s threat to the very system that investors depend on has failed to become the conventional wisdom among traders…”

There’s a cognitive dissonance here. Accurately pricing in regime change is so costly as to be psychologically unfathomable. So we just…don’t.

Nathan Tankus @nathantankus.bsky.social · Aug 26

My new Politico Op Ed is live! Will send it out to my email list after I pick up lunch.

www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Opinion | Why Markets Aren’t Freaking Out Over Trump’s Attack on the Fed

And why that’s a big mistake.

www.politico.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 21

Now let’s bundle those bets into a synthetic product, and allow college students to parlay bets on that product with the Badgers beating Ohio State, all financed through Klarna. It’s the American way.

www.wsj.com/finance/comm...

CME Teams with FanDuel to Launch Betting on Financial Markets

CME Group, the biggest futures exchange in the U.S., has teamed with the sports-wagering platform FanDuel to let users bet on the outcome of market-related events.

www.wsj.com

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Reposted by Miles Kellerman

Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · Aug 19

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... @abenewman.bsky.social and meself are a cover story.

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Reposted by Miles Kellerman

Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · Aug 14

1/US gov stating unprecedented financial expropriation. From tech to law firms to Universities, threat of state coercion is used for corporate tithing. Without pushback, this behavior will escalate and threaten the economy. Who will invest when the gov will just take it.
fortune.com/2025/08/13/b...

Bessent says unusual Nvidia, AMD revenue-sharing deal could be a ‘model’ for other industries

Bessent called the deal “unique,” before suggesting that it could be a lot less unique soon. Scholars have another word: unprecedented.

fortune.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 14

Eva Dou’s House of Huawei covers some of these contradictions. It’s a great read: sites.prh.com/houseofhuawei

House of Huawei - Penguin Random House - Penguin Random House

Based on wide-ranging interviews and painstaking archival research, House of Huawei dissects the global web of power, money, influence, surveillance, bloodshed, and national glory that Huawei helped t...

sites.prh.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 14

Reuters reports the US is embedding tracking devices in the packaging of AI chip shipments to China.

As I wrote in a recent post (below), the ultimate goal is much more ambitious: embed tracking into the chips themselves.

#polisky #econsky #lawsky

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 9

This was really something. What struck me most was the sense of sadness underneath the surface. The host saying he’s far right “only because they’re kind of my community.”

Jemima Kelly @jemima.bsky.social · Aug 9

I spent the day with Curtis Yarvin and the "dissident right" at a garden party in Surrey and wrote quite a few words about it.

My cover story for today’s FT Magazine

on.ft.com/4ooXS4t [GIFT LINK! 🎁]

Sunday at the garden party for Curtis Yarvin and the new, new right

[FREE TO READ] What you learn at a gathering of neoreactionaries, Very Online rightwingers and the formerly cancelled

on.ft.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Aug 4

A fact befitting of our times: the U.S. Army operates 1,889 slot machines in 79 foreign bases.

www.wired.com/story/us-mil...

The US Military Is Raking in Millions From On-Base Slot Machines

The Defense Department operates slot machines on US military bases overseas, raising tens of millions of dollars to fund recreation for troops—and creating risks for soldiers prone to gambling addicti...

www.wired.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Jul 31

Why did China’s cyber regulator just summon Nvidia over security concerns?

I have an essay for you —>

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

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Reposted by Miles Kellerman

Jeffrey Vagle @jvagle.me · Jul 31

A good way to understand this is to substitute “Meta” for “an AI” in this sentence:

"I continue to think that glasses are basically going to be the ideal form factor for Al, because you can let an Al see what you see throughout the day, hear what you hear, [and] talk to you,"

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Reposted by Miles Kellerman

Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · Jul 30

The connecting thread between Chris Hayes, Ezra Klein, Zohran Mamdani and Brian Eno. www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-old-de...

The old Democratic party doesn't fit new media

Melding new modes of policy making with new modes of public making

www.programmablemutter.com

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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · Jul 30

Want to buy a military-grade rifle capable of piercing armor? Florida requires no permit, no background check, and there is no limit on the quantity you can purchase.

And that's great news for Haiti's gangs.

Great visual investigation by the @financialtimes.com

ig.ft.com/haiti-gangs/

The American guns turning Haiti’s gangs into an army

Weapons smuggled from Florida are empowering the country’s militias and enabling them to challenge a fragile government

ig.ft.com

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