Ted Knutson
@mixedknuts.bsky.social
Founder, StatsBomb, Variance Incorporated.
@thetransferflow
Daily Rumours newsletter https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe
Frmr: Brentford FC, Pinnacle, SB
@thetransferflow
Daily Rumours newsletter https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe
Frmr: Brentford FC, Pinnacle, SB
We're working on an intro to gambling course, but +1.5 is like +1.5 base units on approx 50/50 bets.
So if you bet £10 per bet, you'd be up £15ish on the weekend.
And if you are +24 on the season and bet 10,000 per bet (as stated at the start of the season), then you'd be up... over 200k. ymmv
So if you bet £10 per bet, you'd be up £15ish on the weekend.
And if you are +24 on the season and bet 10,000 per bet (as stated at the start of the season), then you'd be up... over 200k. ymmv
Do you have a post on what +1.5 means?
> Variance Betting ground out a tidy +1.5 on the weekend (with Birmingham still in action tonight).
> Variance Betting ground out a tidy +1.5 on the weekend (with Birmingham still in action tonight).
December 1, 2025 at 8:22 PM
We're working on an intro to gambling course, but +1.5 is like +1.5 base units on approx 50/50 bets.
So if you bet £10 per bet, you'd be up £15ish on the weekend.
And if you are +24 on the season and bet 10,000 per bet (as stated at the start of the season), then you'd be up... over 200k. ymmv
So if you bet £10 per bet, you'd be up £15ish on the weekend.
And if you are +24 on the season and bet 10,000 per bet (as stated at the start of the season), then you'd be up... over 200k. ymmv
I'll allow it.
I mostly write about Spurs this season so that Kim doesn't have to and so @michaelcaley.bsky.social will quote skeet things.
(But it's still weird how few people send feedback given it's FOOTBALL and everyone has opinions all of the time.)
I mostly write about Spurs this season so that Kim doesn't have to and so @michaelcaley.bsky.social will quote skeet things.
(But it's still weird how few people send feedback given it's FOOTBALL and everyone has opinions all of the time.)
I’ve taken furious notes after reading every single newsletter since inception and was just waiting for this post to share my feedback.
Notes:
-It’s good.
Notes:
-It’s good.
December 1, 2025 at 8:10 PM
I'll allow it.
I mostly write about Spurs this season so that Kim doesn't have to and so @michaelcaley.bsky.social will quote skeet things.
(But it's still weird how few people send feedback given it's FOOTBALL and everyone has opinions all of the time.)
I mostly write about Spurs this season so that Kim doesn't have to and so @michaelcaley.bsky.social will quote skeet things.
(But it's still weird how few people send feedback given it's FOOTBALL and everyone has opinions all of the time.)
Variance Betting ground out a tidy +1.5 on the weekend (with Birmingham still in action tonight).
The bankroll is up over 200k so far on the season.
*deep breath*
And there's a midweek round of PL and Eng Champ this week!
iamcrushingitbutiamsotired
The bankroll is up over 200k so far on the season.
*deep breath*
And there's a midweek round of PL and Eng Champ this week!
iamcrushingitbutiamsotired
December 1, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Variance Betting ground out a tidy +1.5 on the weekend (with Birmingham still in action tonight).
The bankroll is up over 200k so far on the season.
*deep breath*
And there's a midweek round of PL and Eng Champ this week!
iamcrushingitbutiamsotired
The bankroll is up over 200k so far on the season.
*deep breath*
And there's a midweek round of PL and Eng Champ this week!
iamcrushingitbutiamsotired
Newsletters and podcasts are such a strange thing. Even with tens of thousands of readers/listeners at @thetransferflow.bsky.social, you get zero feedback most days.
(Unless you put out something terrible, then they let you hear it.)
(Unless you put out something terrible, then they let you hear it.)
December 1, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Newsletters and podcasts are such a strange thing. Even with tens of thousands of readers/listeners at @thetransferflow.bsky.social, you get zero feedback most days.
(Unless you put out something terrible, then they let you hear it.)
(Unless you put out something terrible, then they let you hear it.)
I'm sorry, the WHAT?
It's only logical to start your Star Trek 60th anniversary celebration early with the new Star Trek Wines Advent Calendar.
Celebrate 60 Years of STAR TREK With This Wine Advent Calendar
nerdist.com
December 1, 2025 at 10:56 AM
I'm sorry, the WHAT?
FWIW I don't think Simons is easy to evaluate. Spurs don't have a competent midfield and this guy is on the other side of that.
He'd almost certainly look A LOT better at Chelsea.
Meanwhile Eze has looked nothing but amazing amongst Arsenal's general competence and squad depth.
He'd almost certainly look A LOT better at Chelsea.
Meanwhile Eze has looked nothing but amazing amongst Arsenal's general competence and squad depth.
Now let me just go back through the transfer flows assesment of Simons v Eze transfer? 😳
December 1, 2025 at 9:33 AM
FWIW I don't think Simons is easy to evaluate. Spurs don't have a competent midfield and this guy is on the other side of that.
He'd almost certainly look A LOT better at Chelsea.
Meanwhile Eze has looked nothing but amazing amongst Arsenal's general competence and squad depth.
He'd almost certainly look A LOT better at Chelsea.
Meanwhile Eze has looked nothing but amazing amongst Arsenal's general competence and squad depth.
Let me just check in on how Xavi Simons at Spurs is adapting to the Prem- ohhhhh no.
It's been a while since we've seen a hatched of unrealised dreams this stark.
It's been a while since we've seen a hatched of unrealised dreams this stark.
December 1, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Let me just check in on how Xavi Simons at Spurs is adapting to the Prem- ohhhhh no.
It's been a while since we've seen a hatched of unrealised dreams this stark.
It's been a while since we've seen a hatched of unrealised dreams this stark.
Reposted by Ted Knutson
It brings me no pleasure to report that the Ohio State-Michigan head referee is Kon Knueppel’s uncle Kole Knueppel
It truly brings me no pleasure to inform you that Kon Knueppel’s brothers are named Kager, Kinston, Kash, and Kid
November 29, 2025 at 5:48 PM
It brings me no pleasure to report that the Ohio State-Michigan head referee is Kon Knueppel’s uncle Kole Knueppel
@kimischilling.bsky.social your hit rate in FPL this season is kinda freaky
November 29, 2025 at 7:16 PM
@kimischilling.bsky.social your hit rate in FPL this season is kinda freaky
Reposted by Ted Knutson
WE NEED YOUR HELP!
Do you have any questions you want @patrickbvs.bsky.social
and @mixedknuts.bsky.social to dig into on our next Patreon episode? Drop them in the replies below and we’ll pick the best ones to answer.
New episode every week, get access here: www.patreon.com/c/TheTransfe...
Do you have any questions you want @patrickbvs.bsky.social
and @mixedknuts.bsky.social to dig into on our next Patreon episode? Drop them in the replies below and we’ll pick the best ones to answer.
New episode every week, get access here: www.patreon.com/c/TheTransfe...
The Transfer Flow | Patreon
www.patreon.com
November 29, 2025 at 5:40 PM
WE NEED YOUR HELP!
Do you have any questions you want @patrickbvs.bsky.social
and @mixedknuts.bsky.social to dig into on our next Patreon episode? Drop them in the replies below and we’ll pick the best ones to answer.
New episode every week, get access here: www.patreon.com/c/TheTransfe...
Do you have any questions you want @patrickbvs.bsky.social
and @mixedknuts.bsky.social to dig into on our next Patreon episode? Drop them in the replies below and we’ll pick the best ones to answer.
New episode every week, get access here: www.patreon.com/c/TheTransfe...
The Premier League has turned into the Championship this season and it is kind of glorious.
November 29, 2025 at 4:39 PM
The Premier League has turned into the Championship this season and it is kind of glorious.
Doing Variance Betting analysis for the weekend and uh... this is remarkable on Chelsea and Man City.
November 28, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Doing Variance Betting analysis for the weekend and uh... this is remarkable on Chelsea and Man City.
Reposted by Ted Knutson
if you steal a cell phone or wallet in paris they kick you out of the french thieve's guild for insufficient whimsy
Thieves have stolen €90,000 worth of fine French snails destined for some of the country’s most prestigious restaurants
Thieves take €90,000 of snails meant for Michelin-starred restaurants
French police are on the trail of ‘experienced’ criminals who stole a whole year’s worth of produce from Jean-Mathieu Dauvergne’s L’Escargot des Grands Crus
www.thetimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 9:45 PM
if you steal a cell phone or wallet in paris they kick you out of the french thieve's guild for insufficient whimsy
Reposted by Ted Knutson
Ouch. This one hurts.
We are now further away from the theatrical release of Raiders of the Lost Ark (June 12, 1981) than it was from the year it takes place in (1936). We have reached the Indiana Jones event horizon.
November 28, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Ouch. This one hurts.
Gambling weekend looked like Arsenal.
Gambling midweek looked like Liverpool.
Gambling midweek looked like Liverpool.
November 27, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Gambling weekend looked like Arsenal.
Gambling midweek looked like Liverpool.
Gambling midweek looked like Liverpool.
Reposted by Ted Knutson
Can confirm this is true
November 25, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Can confirm this is true
Past me made StatsBomb data available for free to all women's clubs in the major leagues.
Which future me was very happy about (but also slightly confused), because our analysts were using SB vis, and I knew we didn't have a contract! 🤣
Which future me was very happy about (but also slightly confused), because our analysts were using SB vis, and I knew we didn't have a contract! 🤣
November 26, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Past me made StatsBomb data available for free to all women's clubs in the major leagues.
Which future me was very happy about (but also slightly confused), because our analysts were using SB vis, and I knew we didn't have a contract! 🤣
Which future me was very happy about (but also slightly confused), because our analysts were using SB vis, and I knew we didn't have a contract! 🤣
Gambling update: Last night was a CL bloodbath.
(We are honest about our wins AND losses.)
(We are honest about our wins AND losses.)
November 26, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Gambling update: Last night was a CL bloodbath.
(We are honest about our wins AND losses.)
(We are honest about our wins AND losses.)
Reposted by Ted Knutson
I wrote 4000 words about Nuzzi/Lizza/RFK, please read it before it gets taken down by HR
The Olivia Nuzzi and RFK Jr. Affair Is Messier Than We Ever Could Have Imagined
Inside the most important, and also least important, story of our time
www.theringer.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:48 PM
I wrote 4000 words about Nuzzi/Lizza/RFK, please read it before it gets taken down by HR
@sethpartnow.bsky.social @maiaknp.bsky.social
I had to apologise to my gf for disparaging her Minka Kelly Xmas movies, because this is exceptional.
www.instagram.com/reel/DRaL_cm...
I had to apologise to my gf for disparaging her Minka Kelly Xmas movies, because this is exceptional.
www.instagram.com/reel/DRaL_cm...
DC Vintage Watches, Los Angeles on Instagram: "It is what it is...and Flula Borg (@flula) is hilarious
Looking for that perfect holiday gift? Get a vintage watch at www.dcvintagewatches.com! Sign ...
Die Hard is a Christmas movie, but opinions on its classification vary. The film's protagonist, John McClane, is often seen as a trigger-happy cowboy, while Hans Gruber is viewed as a Robin Hood-like ...
www.instagram.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:16 AM
@sethpartnow.bsky.social @maiaknp.bsky.social
I had to apologise to my gf for disparaging her Minka Kelly Xmas movies, because this is exceptional.
www.instagram.com/reel/DRaL_cm...
I had to apologise to my gf for disparaging her Minka Kelly Xmas movies, because this is exceptional.
www.instagram.com/reel/DRaL_cm...
I regret to inform you that I have given up on all basic pitch apple tarts in Montpellier. They look amazing, but none of them has the goods when it comes to flavour.
And still, we endure...
And still, we endure...
November 25, 2025 at 8:40 AM
I regret to inform you that I have given up on all basic pitch apple tarts in Montpellier. They look amazing, but none of them has the goods when it comes to flavour.
And still, we endure...
And still, we endure...
Reposted by Ted Knutson
+4 (4 wins, 0 losses) in the English Premier League
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
November 22, 2025 at 5:12 PM
+4 (4 wins, 0 losses) in the English Premier League
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
+4 (4 wins, 0 losses) in the English Premier League
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
November 22, 2025 at 5:12 PM
+4 (4 wins, 0 losses) in the English Premier League
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
+3.5 in the Championship.
The Variance Betting streak is back with a vengeance.
Reposted by Ted Knutson
Good old Woz. Good for him.
November 21, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Good old Woz. Good for him.
3 emails today saying ALL of the lines on the bets I mention in my Variance Betting newsletter had moved at least 10 cents this afternoon.
That's fascinating... AND had nothing to do with me.
Very interesting market dynamics happening to keep an eye on.
That's fascinating... AND had nothing to do with me.
Very interesting market dynamics happening to keep an eye on.
November 21, 2025 at 3:10 PM
3 emails today saying ALL of the lines on the bets I mention in my Variance Betting newsletter had moved at least 10 cents this afternoon.
That's fascinating... AND had nothing to do with me.
Very interesting market dynamics happening to keep an eye on.
That's fascinating... AND had nothing to do with me.
Very interesting market dynamics happening to keep an eye on.