Madeleine Sumption
@msumption.bsky.social
Director of Migration Observatory @ University of Oxford. I research migration policy, mostly in the UK
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
I think I heard @jburnmurdoch.ft.com say this increase is down to a a change in the way the numbers are calculated rather than a major shift in migration patterns.
It's time we asked a different question about migration: Why are so many British people leaving the UK?
inews.co.uk/opinion/immi...
inews.co.uk/opinion/immi...
November 19, 2025 at 5:40 PM
I think I heard @jburnmurdoch.ft.com say this increase is down to a a change in the way the numbers are calculated rather than a major shift in migration patterns.
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
September 26, 2025 at 2:10 PM
New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Useful new stats from Home Office on how asylum applicants travel to the UK
Significant increase in applications from people on visas (mostly work, study or visit), not just small boats
Also large differences by nationality: Pakistani and Bangladeshi applicants much more likely to come on visas
Significant increase in applications from people on visas (mostly work, study or visit), not just small boats
Also large differences by nationality: Pakistani and Bangladeshi applicants much more likely to come on visas
August 21, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Useful new stats from Home Office on how asylum applicants travel to the UK
Significant increase in applications from people on visas (mostly work, study or visit), not just small boats
Also large differences by nationality: Pakistani and Bangladeshi applicants much more likely to come on visas
Significant increase in applications from people on visas (mostly work, study or visit), not just small boats
Also large differences by nationality: Pakistani and Bangladeshi applicants much more likely to come on visas
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
➤ UK will prioritise applications for transfers to UK (criteria not specified)
➤ Ppl deemed a security threat can’t be transferred in either direction
2/2
➤ Ppl deemed a security threat can’t be transferred in either direction
2/2
August 6, 2025 at 9:25 AM
➤ UK will prioritise applications for transfers to UK (criteria not specified)
➤ Ppl deemed a security threat can’t be transferred in either direction
2/2
➤ Ppl deemed a security threat can’t be transferred in either direction
2/2
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
Text of the UK-France small boats treaty published. Key points:
➤ Process to take up to 3 months from arrival in UK
➤ Doesn’t apply to unaccompanied minors
➤ FR can refuse to accept specific ppl back & will give aggregated data on reasons for refusals... 1/2
www.gov.uk/government/p...
➤ Process to take up to 3 months from arrival in UK
➤ Doesn’t apply to unaccompanied minors
➤ FR can refuse to accept specific ppl back & will give aggregated data on reasons for refusals... 1/2
www.gov.uk/government/p...
UK/France: Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys [CS France No.2/2025]
This treaty was presented to Parliament in August 2025.
www.gov.uk
August 6, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Text of the UK-France small boats treaty published. Key points:
➤ Process to take up to 3 months from arrival in UK
➤ Doesn’t apply to unaccompanied minors
➤ FR can refuse to accept specific ppl back & will give aggregated data on reasons for refusals... 1/2
www.gov.uk/government/p...
➤ Process to take up to 3 months from arrival in UK
➤ Doesn’t apply to unaccompanied minors
➤ FR can refuse to accept specific ppl back & will give aggregated data on reasons for refusals... 1/2
www.gov.uk/government/p...
I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
August 1, 2025 at 9:46 AM
I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors
Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Nice paper on Australian regional visas, which push migrants to live outside of major metro areas
Ppl on regional visas much more likely to stay in the 'regions' if they were in cities, not remote/rural areas
Middle-aged migrants w kids most likely to stay put
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Ppl on regional visas much more likely to stay in the 'regions' if they were in cities, not remote/rural areas
Middle-aged migrants w kids most likely to stay put
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
July 16, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Nice paper on Australian regional visas, which push migrants to live outside of major metro areas
Ppl on regional visas much more likely to stay in the 'regions' if they were in cities, not remote/rural areas
Middle-aged migrants w kids most likely to stay put
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Ppl on regional visas much more likely to stay in the 'regions' if they were in cities, not remote/rural areas
Middle-aged migrants w kids most likely to stay put
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Interesting paper: survey experiment finds US public are unconvinced by economic arguments in favour of admitting refugees, more convinced by moral arguments
Legal arguments only convincing on the left
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
@sblinder.bsky.social
Legal arguments only convincing on the left
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
@sblinder.bsky.social
July 14, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Interesting paper: survey experiment finds US public are unconvinced by economic arguments in favour of admitting refugees, more convinced by moral arguments
Legal arguments only convincing on the left
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
@sblinder.bsky.social
Legal arguments only convincing on the left
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
@sblinder.bsky.social
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
Is the British government is really going to be able to co-ordinate with industry to replace migrant workers with domestic ones?
@johnspringford.bsky.social asked @msumption.bsky.social this and much more on the latest episode of the #CERpodcast.
Listen here: www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...
@johnspringford.bsky.social asked @msumption.bsky.social this and much more on the latest episode of the #CERpodcast.
Listen here: www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...
July 10, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Is the British government is really going to be able to co-ordinate with industry to replace migrant workers with domestic ones?
@johnspringford.bsky.social asked @msumption.bsky.social this and much more on the latest episode of the #CERpodcast.
Listen here: www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...
@johnspringford.bsky.social asked @msumption.bsky.social this and much more on the latest episode of the #CERpodcast.
Listen here: www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
Plenty of recent speculation about whether a UK-France deal on small boat returns will be announced this week.
Would such a deal bring down arrivals? And what are some other options for improved cooperation with France and the EU?
New commentary 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Would such a deal bring down arrivals? And what are some other options for improved cooperation with France and the EU?
New commentary 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
UK-France and UK-EU cooperation on small boat arrivals: what are the options? - Migration Observatory
This Q&A discusses the evidence related to UK-EU co-operation on asylum and unauthorised migration.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
July 9, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Plenty of recent speculation about whether a UK-France deal on small boat returns will be announced this week.
Would such a deal bring down arrivals? And what are some other options for improved cooperation with France and the EU?
New commentary 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Would such a deal bring down arrivals? And what are some other options for improved cooperation with France and the EU?
New commentary 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid:
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
July 8, 2025 at 12:41 PM
I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid:
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
Our Director @msumption.bsky.social on Today Programme this morning talking about why the care visa has been so difficult to manage
Full interview 00:50 minutes into the programme: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Full interview 00:50 minutes into the programme: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
July 4, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Our Director @msumption.bsky.social on Today Programme this morning talking about why the care visa has been so difficult to manage
Full interview 00:50 minutes into the programme: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Full interview 00:50 minutes into the programme: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Immigration lawyers: am I right in thinking that Statement of Changes says a) mid-skilled workers coming on the Temp Shortage List; & b) ppl switching in-country to care jobs DO still have path to ILR, at least for the moment?
@colinyeo.bsky.social @jonkingh.bsky.social @johnvassiliou.bsky.social
@colinyeo.bsky.social @jonkingh.bsky.social @johnvassiliou.bsky.social
July 2, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Immigration lawyers: am I right in thinking that Statement of Changes says a) mid-skilled workers coming on the Temp Shortage List; & b) ppl switching in-country to care jobs DO still have path to ILR, at least for the moment?
@colinyeo.bsky.social @jonkingh.bsky.social @johnvassiliou.bsky.social
@colinyeo.bsky.social @jonkingh.bsky.social @johnvassiliou.bsky.social
Pleased to share my new article in Migration Studies @MigrationJrnl on why it’s so much harder than it sounds for government to select the “best and brightest” migrants
I illustrate using the example of two widely criticized 'investor visa' programmes
academic.oup.com/migration/ar...
I illustrate using the example of two widely criticized 'investor visa' programmes
academic.oup.com/migration/ar...
July 2, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Pleased to share my new article in Migration Studies @MigrationJrnl on why it’s so much harder than it sounds for government to select the “best and brightest” migrants
I illustrate using the example of two widely criticized 'investor visa' programmes
academic.oup.com/migration/ar...
I illustrate using the example of two widely criticized 'investor visa' programmes
academic.oup.com/migration/ar...
I think part of the problem is that our official statistical ethnicity categories are badly designed: by using the word 'British' they mix ethnicity and citizenship in a confusing way. This is unusual internationally. Ethnicity is different from citizenship
Have written up some of my thoughts about the increasingly sinister use of 'non-UK born' and 'white British' in the British press. The obsession with 'white British' citizens over other British citizens harms all of us and needs to be called out.
benansell.substack.com/p/who-counts
benansell.substack.com/p/who-counts
June 20, 2025 at 8:27 PM
I think part of the problem is that our official statistical ethnicity categories are badly designed: by using the word 'British' they mix ethnicity and citizenship in a confusing way. This is unusual internationally. Ethnicity is different from citizenship
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
"This narrowly focussed bill... makes no change to a person’s existing right to appeal any decision to remove their British citizenship, and doesn’t widen the reasons for which a person could be deprived of their citizenship", the Home Office says www.gov.uk/government/n...
Closure of loophole to keep terrorists and extremists out of the UK
A law has been introduced to prevent British citizenship being reinstated to people considered a national security risk following a successful initial appeal.
www.gov.uk
June 19, 2025 at 3:13 PM
"This narrowly focussed bill... makes no change to a person’s existing right to appeal any decision to remove their British citizenship, and doesn’t widen the reasons for which a person could be deprived of their citizenship", the Home Office says www.gov.uk/government/n...
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
Our latest briefing on migrants in the UK labour market charts the remarkable shift away from EU towards non-EU workers over the past few years
Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
June 18, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Our latest briefing on migrants in the UK labour market charts the remarkable shift away from EU towards non-EU workers over the past few years
Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more...
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
I've started a substack 🙌📩 Subscribe now for weekly articles where I explore the data behind the big policy issues.
In my first post I ask why new proposals for a digital ID card make me so uneasy, despite the possible benefits.
Is Britain ready for BritCard? tinyurl.com/yawwd6jd
In my first post I ask why new proposals for a digital ID card make me so uneasy, despite the possible benefits.
Is Britain ready for BritCard? tinyurl.com/yawwd6jd
Is Britain ready for BritCard?
Labour is re-entering risky political space with digital ID proposal
tinyurl.com
June 10, 2025 at 1:32 PM
I've started a substack 🙌📩 Subscribe now for weekly articles where I explore the data behind the big policy issues.
In my first post I ask why new proposals for a digital ID card make me so uneasy, despite the possible benefits.
Is Britain ready for BritCard? tinyurl.com/yawwd6jd
In my first post I ask why new proposals for a digital ID card make me so uneasy, despite the possible benefits.
Is Britain ready for BritCard? tinyurl.com/yawwd6jd
What rights do unauthorised migrants get?
Interesting new paper looks at what rights 28 European countries give ppl without legal right to be there
Most countries allow access to emergency care & kids' schooling, few (unsurprisingly) offer financial support
cadmus.eui.eu/entities/pub...
Interesting new paper looks at what rights 28 European countries give ppl without legal right to be there
Most countries allow access to emergency care & kids' schooling, few (unsurprisingly) offer financial support
cadmus.eui.eu/entities/pub...
June 9, 2025 at 9:14 AM
What rights do unauthorised migrants get?
Interesting new paper looks at what rights 28 European countries give ppl without legal right to be there
Most countries allow access to emergency care & kids' schooling, few (unsurprisingly) offer financial support
cadmus.eui.eu/entities/pub...
Interesting new paper looks at what rights 28 European countries give ppl without legal right to be there
Most countries allow access to emergency care & kids' schooling, few (unsurprisingly) offer financial support
cadmus.eui.eu/entities/pub...
Deeply sceptical about argument that long-term increase in small boat crossings results from weather
Here’s why – but I'm interested in any counterarguments!
1. Yes, weather affects crossings *in short run*. That is clear in data
Also more crossings in summer, when risk of death is lower... 1/n
Here’s why – but I'm interested in any counterarguments!
1. Yes, weather affects crossings *in short run*. That is clear in data
Also more crossings in summer, when risk of death is lower... 1/n
June 4, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Deeply sceptical about argument that long-term increase in small boat crossings results from weather
Here’s why – but I'm interested in any counterarguments!
1. Yes, weather affects crossings *in short run*. That is clear in data
Also more crossings in summer, when risk of death is lower... 1/n
Here’s why – but I'm interested in any counterarguments!
1. Yes, weather affects crossings *in short run*. That is clear in data
Also more crossings in summer, when risk of death is lower... 1/n
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
This petition has had 10k signatures in the past hour, one of the fastest growing I've seen. Lots of signatures in some pretty surprising places, too petition.parliament.uk/petitions/70...
June 3, 2025 at 9:21 PM
This petition has had 10k signatures in the past hour, one of the fastest growing I've seen. Lots of signatures in some pretty surprising places, too petition.parliament.uk/petitions/70...
Calling UKRI-funded doctoral students interested in migration!
Apply for an internship with the Migration Advisory Committee - deadline 8th Sept
www.ukri.org/apply-for-fu...
Apply for an internship with the Migration Advisory Committee - deadline 8th Sept
www.ukri.org/apply-for-fu...
June 3, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Calling UKRI-funded doctoral students interested in migration!
Apply for an internship with the Migration Advisory Committee - deadline 8th Sept
www.ukri.org/apply-for-fu...
Apply for an internship with the Migration Advisory Committee - deadline 8th Sept
www.ukri.org/apply-for-fu...
Reposted by Madeleine Sumption
Do most voters oppose immigration because of racism? My book shows that view is both too pessimistic—racism is a stable trait that rarely shifts—and too convenient, since it lets us avoid improving immigration policy:
cupblog.org/2025/05/19/t...
cupblog.org/2025/05/19/t...
May 19, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Do most voters oppose immigration because of racism? My book shows that view is both too pessimistic—racism is a stable trait that rarely shifts—and too convenient, since it lets us avoid improving immigration policy:
cupblog.org/2025/05/19/t...
cupblog.org/2025/05/19/t...